|
March 2, 2003The North Korean Power Grid Is Collapsing?by Trent Telenko at March 2, 2003 9:01 PM
The Washington Post has a story titled Defector's Data May Have Led to U.S. Hard Line on N. Korea that spends a great deal of time beating up the Bush Administration's North North Korean policy for the sin of exposing the 1993 nuclear agreement as failed appeasement. The key part of the article wasn’t about any of that. It was this passage: The North Korean electrical grid is collapsing, experts say, and the North Koreans face food shortages as international deliveries of aid have been reduced. The United States last week announced it would provide 40,000 tons of agricultural commodities, with the possibility of 60,000 additional tons later in the year. Last year, the United States provided 157,000 tons, but officials have cited "serious concerns" about how the distribution of the aid is monitored. The primary means of transportation in North Korea is train travel. North Korean trains are electrically powered. The collapse of the electrical grid means that the main North Korean transportation system has tubed. The New York Times reported Feb 23rd that there are rural areas in North Korea that have not seen a train in years. (Note: The link is on the for pay part of the NY Times web site) The lack of power for train travel, fertilizers and manufacturing was blamed for the massive famines in rural areas. Since I printed out the article, here is the relevant quote from Timothy Savage of the California based Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development: ""Energy is at the root of all North Korea's economic problems, including the famine," Mr. Savage continued, referring to severe food shortages in the mid-1990's that killed as many as two million people, or 10 percent of the population. Think through the implications of this electrical grid collapse. Even if the North Koreans keep the train power grid open to the major urban areas. The lack of spare part manufacturing for their trains is as much a problem as the lack of spares for their tractors. The major inland North Korean urban areas are going to see their primary means of cargo transport disappear sooner rather than later. The total collapse of North Korea is rapidly approaching.
Comments
#1 from dave murphy at 9:59 pm on Mar 02, 2003
So will it collapse peacefully or will the NKs launch an al out attack on the south to get their hands southern wealth? Is this an opportunity for furtehr diplomacy or for more war?
#2 from Trent Telenko at 10:13 pm on Mar 02, 2003
It is the opportunity for an ugly humanitarian catastrophe. I don't think that the "Tony Sopranos" running North Korea would obey an order to shell Seoul. I do think they will interfere with efforts to prevent the collapse.
#3 from Insufficiently Sensitive at 12:48 am on Mar 03, 2003
Does anyone know what loads would be placed on that grid if all those nuclear fuel rods were to be processed for production of plutonium?
#4 from Fred Boness at 2:44 am on Mar 03, 2003
This indicates that NK has no capacity for a sustained war. What could possibly constitute a positive outcome here? The capitulation of the North to occupation by the South and reformation of the economy? I see no way for this to occur except, literally over Kim Jong Il's dead body. In contrast, there are dozens of desperately bad outcomes to the situation from outright war to the spread of plutonium to anyone willing to prop up the regime with hard cash. Stanley Kurtz has a depressing but perhaps prescient view on national review online today: http://www.nationalreview.com/kurtz/kurtz030303.asp
#6 from Trent Telenko at 5:53 pm on Mar 04, 2003
"Positive outcome" for whom? South Korea will do anything to prevent the collapse of the North. Even help the North to build and sell nukes to Al-Qaeda. They have in fact done this already by secretly giving the North $100's of millions to billions of dollars to have a summit and "opening" to the North. That money was used in the North's nuclear program. That was the act of an unfriendly power and is a clear and present danger to America. In the immediate disposition of North Korean nukes, South Korea and China are America's enemies and allies. Those who make diplomatic and conventional military solution to the North Korean nuclear threat impossible also make American preemptive nuclear attack inevitable.
Post a comment
Here are some quick tips for adding simple Textile formatting to your comments, though you can also use proper HTML tags: |
You're Reading an Individual Post!
If you want to head to the main blog page, just follow the "Main" link in the navigation up top underneath our blog's name. Or click here:
Winds of Change.NET Home
Project Valour-IT
Winds of Change Library
Recent Entries
· Inauguration Bleg
· Iraq 2009 · Harry Reid Steps Up · Back From Vacation - Blog Stuff · Gaza and the Law of Armed Conflict · What does Hamas aspire to? · Other thoughts on proportionality · What Would a Proportionate Response Look Like? · Dec 2008: What's Coming in Afghanistan · Australian Special Forces in Afghanistan: 2008 report · New Weapon in Afghanistan: Viagra · Gaza and CNN · Tim Russert: Should Old Acquaintance Be Forgot... · ...Not A Creature Was Stirring, Not Even A Mouse... · Piston Driven Fusion
Support Winds of Change.NET!
Your support & assistance is greatly appreciated, and makes a difference!
The Winds Crew:
Town Founder: Joe Katzman joe {at} windsofchange. net Joe's Normblog Interview Left-Hand Man: Marc 'Armed Liberal' Danziger armed {at} windsofchange. net A.L.'s Normblog Interview Other Winds Marshals 'AMac', aka. Marshal Festus (AMac@...) Robin "Straight Shooter" Burk 'Cicero', aka. The Quiet Man (cicero@...) David Blue (david.blue@...) 'Lewy14', aka. Marshal Leroy (lewy14@...) 'Nortius Maximus', aka. Big Tuna (nortius.maximus@...) Other Regulars 'Callimachus' (callimachus@...) 'Demosophist' (demosophist@...) Rev./Maj. Donald Sensing 'Molon Labe' (molon.labe@...) 'Neo Neo-Con' Tarek Heggy (tarek@...) Semi-Active: Arthur Chrenkoff 'Gabriel Gonzalez' (in Paris) Tim Oren (tim@...) Trent Telenko (trent@...) Posting Affiliates Athena: Terrorism Unveiled Chester: The Adventures of Chester Dave Schuler: The Glittering Eye Grim: Grim's Lair et. al. Joel Gaines [Russia] Michael Totten MILblogging.com: The MilBlogs directory Murdoc [Military] Situational Awareness team [Military] Nathan Hamm [Central Asia] Randy Paul [Latin America] Robert Koehler [Koreas] Robi Sen [India & S. Asia] Nitin Pai [India & S. Asia] Simon [China & E. Asia] Yehudit: Kesher Talk Emeritus: Adil Farooq (adil@...) Andrew Olmsted [KIA, Iraq] Celeste Bilby (celeste@...) Dan Darling Gary Farber (gary@...) Hossein Derakhshan (hoder@...) T.L. James (tljames@...) Robin Burk (robin@...)
Winds of Change.NET Blogkids & Affiliates
· The Argus: covering Central Asia · Canis Iratus: Glen Wishard · Correct-Amundo: Tech & society · Discarded Lies: Ev & Zorkie · The Flying Kiwi: Donovan Janus · The Glittering Eye: Dave Schuler · Gumptionology: Nortius Maximus · Hot Needle of Inquiry: 'Jinnderella' · Laughing Wolf: C. Blake Powers · Out The Mazoo: 'Mazoo' · Power and Control: M. Simon · Praktike's Place: 'Praktike' · Random Probabilities: Robin Burk · Siberian Light: covering Russia · The Spirit of Man · Good News From the Front · WATCH/: covering the war on terror
Archives By Category
-FEATURES: 48 Ways to Wisdom (24)
-FEATURES: Diaries & Roundups (10) -FEATURES: Military Transformation Uplink (12) -FEATURES: New Energy Currents (20) -FEATURES: Reader Highlights (2) -FEATURES: Regional Briefings (166) -FEATURES: Sufi Wisdom (158) -FEATURES: The Bard's Breath (32) -FEATURES: Winds of Discovery (6) -FEATURES: Winds of War [WoT] (445) 4 HA: 4th-Gen Warfare (104) 4 HA: al-Qaeda (159) 4 HA: Crime, Organized (26) 4 HA: Evil Exists (111) 4 HA: Intelligence/Spycraft (104) 4 HA: Military (537) 4 HA: Nukes, Poisons, Germs (136) 4 HA: Statecraft (29) 4 HA: War on Terror articles (716) Best Of... (180) BIZ: Business & Organizations (139) BIZ: Economics (103) BIZ: Energy (76) CIVIS (236) CIVIS: Copyright Wars (25) CIVIS: Drug Wars (18) CIVIS: Edu-Kooks (76) CIVIS: Free Societies (297) CIVIS: Hall of Shame (165) CIVIS: Hatred Rising (114) CIVIS: Journalism & Media (419) CIVIS: Spirit of America.NET (32) CIVIS: War Within the West (314) COLUMNISTS: M. Simon (13) COLUMNISTS: Tarek Heggy (33) GEO: Afghanistan (85) GEO: Africa (104) GEO: Asia (117) GEO: Aussies & Kiwis (23) GEO: Canada (72) GEO: China (87) GEO: Europe (183) GEO: France (71) GEO: India-Pakistan (117) GEO: Iran (224) GEO: Iraq (972) GEO: Israel (253) GEO: Koreas (64) GEO: Latin America (63) GEO: Middle East (258) GEO: Russia (83) GEO: Saudi Arabia (64) GEO: Sudan (36) GEO: U.K. (71) GEO: U.N. (61) GEO: U.S. of A (507) HUMANITY (89) HUMANITY: Art & Culture (162) HUMANITY: Art - Music (34) HUMANITY: Art - Poetry (6) HUMANITY: Christianity (53) HUMANITY: Heroes & Achievements (234) HUMANITY: History (126) HUMANITY: Islam (185) HUMANITY: Judaism (138) HUMANITY: Love (32) HUMANITY: Philosophy (49) HUMANITY: Spirituality & Religion (74) HUMANITY: Zen & Buddhism (28) Humour (202) Misc. (44) NET: Blogosphere (398) NET: Cyber-Security (16) NET: Grid Computing (3) NET: Spam (24) NET: The Internet (39) NET: The Open Source Meme (18) Personal (200) SCI-TECH: Biotech & Medical (84) SCI-TECH: Eco-tech (82) SCI-TECH: Nanotech (27) SCI-TECH: Science (114) SCI-TECH: Space (75) SCI-TECH: Technology (146) SPORTS (45) SPORTS: Baseball (77) Trends (66) USA: America Catch-all (20) USA: Anti-Americanism (6) USA: California Politics (16) USA: Conservatives & GOP (44) USA: Dem Party Renewal (77) USA: Domestic Issues (60) USA: Elections (132) USA: Grand Strategy (15) USA: Homeland Security (106) VictoryPAC (3) Winds of Change.NET (58)
Archives by Date
January 2009
December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003 March 2003 February 2003 January 2003 November 2002 October 2002 September 2002 August 2002 July 2002 June 2002 May 2002 April 2002 Joe's Old Archives, By Title: April - June 2002 July - December 2002
Winds Blogroll
Top Prospects
SP Normblog (LHP) SP Solomonia (RHP) RF Mader Blog CF Donklephant LF Harry's Place C Critical Mass 1B Tigerhawk 2B Gideon's Blog SS Alexander the Average 3B Democracy Arsenal UT INF Pundita DH Counterterrorism Blog PEN Liberals Against Terrorism CL Gates of Vienna MASCOT Huffington's Toast MGR Robert Tagorda GM Conservative Grapevine Humour Blogs
Support VictoryPAC· Cox & Forkum (cartoons) · Day By Day (cartoons) · User Friendly (cartoons) · Iowahawk (satire) · Scrappleface (satire) Religious Blogs · Conscientia (baha'i) · Unlearned Hand (bud) · Eve Tushnet (cath) · Muslim Under Progress (isl) · Ideofact (isl) · Kesher Talk (jew) · Rabbi Lazer Brody (jew) · Rishon Rishon (jew) · Rev. Donald Sensing (prot) Other Team Memberships · AlwaysOn [JK] · Blogcritics.org [JK] · Tech Central Station [JK] Blog Services< · NZ Bear's Ecosystem · Blogstreet · Daypop Top 40 · Technorati · Movable Type.org · New York Times Permalinks · Write A Better Blog |
http://www.windsofchange.net/windsopcentre-cms/trackback.cgi/892
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference
"The North Korean Power Grid Is Collapsing?"