In the March 5th Winds of War, I mentioned:
"Geitner Simmons blog makes an excellent point: if America's enemies in France and elsewhere continue to make international bodies a joke due to their resentment of America, have they considered the likely cost of America reciprocating that resentment? [Full article here, recommended] It really does look more like the 1930s every day."Bill Quick neatly illustrates one of my thoughts when I made that last comment.
These fears of a trade war aren't completely fanciful; I could certainly see this as France's next game once U.S. retaliation (carousel retaliation and others) begins to bite their oil industry and beyond.
Indeed, a long term French campaign to introduce retaliatory and anti-USA tarrifs in the EU strikes me as not only likely, but probable.
The French have defined the terms around Iraq: America's role in the world. They've defined their future role: leader of the opposing forces. They've also shown how far they're willing to take this - and the answer is everything and anything short of war. Writing recently in Forbes Magazine, historian Paul Johnson aptly described French governments' "unique mixture of shortsighted selfishness, long-term irresponsibility, impudent humbug and sheer malice." This would certainly fit the bill on all fronts.
As for my "1930s" crack, it goes deeper than global threats and a fifth-column "peace movement" led by hard-core cadres. Recall that in the 1930s, a world in recession also did this.
If France does indeed try to raise a trade wall, it will be extremely interesting to see whether those "not yet in the family" choose to join or not. I think they have already made it clear whose support they enjoy more...
But it won't be overt "Anti American Trade Policies". It will be incremental regulations which will cause US food products to rot on the docks or machinery or software to "not meet EU specifications". Smoot-Hawley, move on over.
The French are already on notice that the EU is changing. They backed off from their threat to veto the new members upon being warned that an alternate EU could be formed without them or Germany. They won't be able to get even the current EU to do this.
As far as the "fifth-column "peace movement" led by hard-core cadres" comment goes; you might want to check out this research.
*Peace Protests Organized by Socialists*
Umm didn't Napolean try this 'continental trade embargo' thing once before? Of course the end result was that the French became very quiet for quite a few decades following Waterloo. So perhaps it'd be a feature, and not a bug.
The distinction between 'Old' and 'New' Europe within the European Union is not as clearcut as the blogosphere has tried to describe over the last few weeks.
There is an almost schizophrenic quality to the meetings within the European Union. On issues of military integration or supporting Franco-German proposals for restructuring the EU, Britain, Spain and Italy have all made supportive noises over the last few days.
*Blair and Aznar's statement* is the most important of these, unreported in most of the mainstream media.
US radar needs to pick up on the European integration process. The Bush administration certainly has. The blogosphere hasn't, as yet, because the countries are artificially divorcing tissue of Iraq from the process of integration.
This is a bad move. They are not adapting to strategic changes and are providing france with greater influence than she deserves.
Phil, the Earth continues to rotate on its axis even if the blogosphere is uncertain as to the mechanics of rotation.
Tom,
Not an exact analogy as we are not dealing with reliable knowledge that can be reproduced in experimentation or measured through mathematics.
If commentators are analysing the actions of European nations, they need to take into account all sources of information. Throughout this Iraqi crisis, there has been no radical change in the actions of EU members, whether described as 'Old' Europe or 'New' Europe, in terms of integration.
The European nations are deliberately ringfencing EU integration from the pressures of the Iraqi crisis. This undermines arguments that France and Germany are looking to dominate the EU as a counterweight whilst the other nations are more accommodating to the US. All may hold differing visions about the future of the EU but they are allied in their approach to the European Constitution.
A European Union that perceives its role as a counterweight to the United States, swallows up pro-American nations and is dominated by those who subscribe to an anti-American ideology is still a distinct possibility.
See also *Arnold Kling's brief thoughts on this issue*, from an economics perspective.
These kinds of priority websites via Google
are blogwash. Blogosphere????
Who are you?
Entertaining war via the unconstitutional
patriot act. God bless America and the men
going to war in Africa. We have all been
here before. VIVA ANC ´90 BROTHERS!!!!!!!!