Winds of Change.NET: A CIA Veteran Discusses Foreign Analysis

June 5, 2003

A CIA Veteran Discusses Foreign Analysis

by Joe Katzman at June 5, 2003 9:47 AM

Ray at Pseudorandom Thoughts is one of the few other blogs out there that I would expect to find citing "Studies in Intelligence" magazine. If you're a blogger or a writer, and you're serious about doing good analysis of foreign events and cultures, veteran CIA analyst Martin Petersen has some excellent and detailed advice. His audience is tougher, which means his tips for success are well honed....

As Petersen notes:

"The key is not our objectivity.... The key is our ability to put the political behavior that policymakers see into a larger cultural and historical context - that they do not see - with enough sophistication to demonstrate that the context matters.... Following the daily traffic can make you current; absent expertise in these areas, you cannot be credible."

Doesn't apply to the blogosphere? Ask Steven Den Beste. I've had people ask me how he built up such a following. Whether you agree or disagree with his views or the contexts he chooses, this is the mechanism.

Petersen goes on to talk about the 6 achievements that enable depth and credibility in one's analysis:

First, know your own history and culture. It is the key to being aware of the innate biases that shape our perceptions of others.... Equally important is the ability to recognize when American cultural biases and values are likely to lead to miscommunication or produce tension in a foreign relationship.

Second, learn their history, but learn it as they teach it. I would only add that the key to understanding people today is to understand their past as they understand it. (JK: Not to mention their present. Note, too, that this understanding need not imply agreement or even acceptance. MEMRI and LGF are invaluable for this very reason, and no-one would seriously contend that they're soft on Islamist movements as a result.)

Third, it is important that analysts study the philosophy, literature, and key thinkers of whatever country they work on. This is especially true if an analyst is working on a non-Western country or one whose philosophical outlook does not flow from the Enlightenment.... Philosophy and art speak volumes about what a culture believes about the nature of man, the role of government, and the temporal world.... An understanding of creation myths and religion (which are not always the same thing) is also very important.

Fourth, analysts must understand the three key elements of power, which are culture bound: how power is acquired, the preferred means of wielding power, and the acceptable and unacceptable uses of power.... As important, a thorough understanding of how power works is the key to putting individual events in perspective and even recognizing when the game - and not just the players - is changing.

Fifth, study the popular culture.... And this works both ways.

Sixth, there is no substitute for the ability to speak or read the language of the country.Of course, he elaborates at some length upon each of these points, in ways that add considerable richness and make this list rather more useful. Frankly, real depth in even one of these categories can help make you a strong blogger, and puts you ahead of most journalists as well. Depth in any 2 makes you formidable, and any 3 makes you outstanding.

Of special relevance to the blogosphere, however, are Petersen's thoughts on things analysts can do "to help themselves when the evidence is thin and the situation is moving quickly":

Articulate and examine their assumptions about the country they work on and the problem at hand. If an analyst cannot articulate what he or she assumes to be true, then the analyst has only the faintest idea of where he or she can go wrong....

Solicit the views of other experts. When analysts can cite other experts, whether private sector or foreign liaison, they add to their own credibility -experts talk to other experts - as well as buttress their argument.

Use hindsight in fast-moving situations. A colleague of mine made it a practice to reread older reporting during a crisis. From clandestine reports in particular, he gained insights into the present. Things that he had missed previously, that had not made sense, or that he had not fully appreciated jumped off the page and suddenly had a powerful ability to explain and predict.Clear and useful advice from a veteran who has been there. Thank you, Martin Petersen!

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