Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2003-06-10

June 10/03: Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul. You'll notice Randy leans leftward; we think diversity of opinion makes for better briefings.

Today's Topics include: Castro's bad week, Hugo Ch�vez's continuing demagoguery in Venezuela, the Chilean economic model, implications of the recent free tade pact for FTAA, and the concerns for Guatemala if Efra�n Rios Montt were to become President again...

Fidel Castro had a bad week last week and in the words of someone else who had a bad week "It's a good thing!"

First, Amnesty International published a blistering, ninety-one page report on the recent crackdown, with profiles of each of the recently convicted dissidents, which will confound his attempts to portray them as US lackeys.

Second, the European Union announced that they would be implementing diplomatic sanctions against Cuba, including a review of its relationship with Cuba and inviting Cuban dissidents to celebrations of EU holidays.

Here's the trifecta: Colin Powell announced that the US may join with the EU to establish a common strategy for dealing with Cuba. Ahh, the wisdom of multilateralism . . .

Apparently in an effort to show that they would brook no opposition from the opposition, the Venezuelan lawmakers loyal to Hugo Ch�vez decided that they would meet in a public park in a neighborhood of Ch�vez supporters instead of the legislative palace. Ch�vez, to no one's surprise, applauded them: "I ask Venezuelans to applaud these legislators who have assumed their responsibility with courage and continued legislating," Chavez said of Friday's unusual outdoor assembly.

The clock continues to tick to the August referendum, and with maneuvers such as this, one wonders if it will take place.

Meanwhile, as I noted here, the Miami Herald reports that Jack Kemp, the former congressman, HUD Secretary and vice-presidential candidate is brokering a deal to buy Venezuelan crude for the USA's strategic petroleum reserves. Common ground is wherever you can find it, I suppose.

Chile and the US finally signed the free trade pact that was agreed upon several months ago.

Andres Oppenheimer thinks that this is a good start and that Chile is a good model for the region. He makes for a persuasive argument citing Chile's consistent growth and per capita income. Chilean Foreign Minister Soledad Alvear is much more modest: "A model we don't like to be: It creates resentment, it makes us look presumptuous" Alvear said. "But we have been successful in establishing key strategic targets for the country and in maintaining them over time. You cannot reinvent the country every timne a new government takes office."

It's worth noting that much of Chile's growth has taken place after the electoral ouster of Augusto Pinochet and the return to democracy. It certainly seems to be that repression - regardless of whether it comes from the right or left - inhibits economic freedom. Maybe those on the right who have lauded Pinochet will bear this in mind.

What the implications for this agreement and the Free Trade Association of the Americas (FTAA) are still unclear to me. Chile is an associate member of Mercosur, the Southern Cone trade group that includes Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina with Bolivia as an associate member. President Lula of Brazil and the new president of Argentina, Nestor Kirchner, both have pledged to make strengthening Mercosur their priority. With Brazil and the US as the major negotiating sides for the FTAA, how significant a role will this agreement with Chile really play?

Guatemalans, especially those who care about human rights, can breathe a momentary sigh of relief as Efra�n Rios Montt's petition to run for president has been rejected again. Jeanne D'Arc has a post with excellent background information about Rios Montt.

The Bush administration has said "Realistically, in light of Mr. Rios Montt's background, it would be difficult to have the kinds of relationship that we would prefer." This first denial of Rios Montt's petition is only the first step on a long road. The White House should be more forceful and unequivocal about Rios Montt. Guatemala is reverting, not developing.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2003-06-10

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