Dan's Winds of War: 2003-07-31

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling of Regnum Crucis.

TOP TOPICS

• As Andrew noted on Monday, there was recently a coup attempt in the Philippines. While the actual plot was foiled, about 70 of the plotters (members of the Filippino equivalent of the Special Forces) managed to escape and then proceeded to seize control of a major commercial center in Manila, holding the Australian ambassador and 2 Americans hostage. The plotters finally surrendered, but are claiming a moral victory. It appears that the renegade soldiers had some significant backing within elements of the Filippino government, as at least one cabinet member has been detained in connection with the plot.

• Something extremely weird took place recently took place in Malawi. First, five al-Qaeda operatives, including a member of the Saudi royal family, were arrested by the CIA and the Malawian National Intelligence Bureau, as they were on a watch list of people linked to Fazul Abdullah Mohammed. A judge initially tried to block the deportation order, but all five suspects were placed in US custody and presumably en route to Guantanamo, prompting a riot in Blantyre that got so far out of hand that the government had to call in the army to restore order. But no sooner are things back to normal in Blantyre than do the five individuals in question turn up in Sudan, claiming that they have been cleared of all charges.

• RFE/RL has a fairly thorough analysis up of Iran's relationship with al-Qaeda and a plausible explanation why the nation is behaving in the manner it is.

Other Topics Today Include: Iraq and Iran updates; President Bush's press conference; more possible hijackings; thwarted attack against the US Embassy in Ottawa; seiges underway in Monrovia and Buchanan; battles against the Taliban and warlords in Afghanistan; al-Qaeda's brain trust, terrorist training camps and shoot-outs in Saudi Arabia; a raid on al-Muhajiroun; Equatoria Guinea's new god, a peaceful transition of power in Sao Tome; Australia's planned deployment in the Solomon Islands; an update on the kidnapped Algerian tourists; and a satire by Mark Steyn on how today's BBC might take the news of Mussolini's death.

IRAQ BRIEFING

• According to one of Saddam Hussein's ex-flunkies, the Iraqi dictator remained in Baghdad for at least a week after the city's fall.

• The Christian Science Monitor says that it may be five minutes to midnight for the former Iraqi dictator, now that the tips are coming in after Udai and Qusai's untimely departure.

• The Iraqi governing council is getting off its feet and is starting to set the groundwork for establishing a new Iraqi constitution.

• Yet another Iraqi guerrilla group has been formed, the Salafist Jihad Group, which may or may not be the same as the Moroccan organization that carried out suicide bombings in Casablanca. Though call to jihad appears to be falling short these days, according to the Boston Globe.

• On the other hand, foreign fighters definitely appear to have a hand in at least some of the attacks on US troops.

• Salam Pax weighs in on the deaths of Udai and Qusai Hussein.

• Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."

• The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003]

IRAN REPORTS

• Ayatollah Mohammed Emami Kashani says that tighter IAEA inspections are too humiliating for the Iranian government to consider while other members of the government are considering pulling out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether and even the reformist elements of the government are willing to go along with it if one of their nuclear facilities comes under US attack.

• JK: Iranian blogger Arsalan wonders what all the fuss is about re: atomic weapons. So what if Iran has them? Joe steps into the Comments section, and explains the issues and the stakes.

• Iranian Vice President Mohammed Ali Abtahi has come to the conclusion that Canadian journalist Zahra Kazemi was probably murdered. How shocking!

U.S.A HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

• The Department of Homeland Security is warning about the potential of new hijackings by al-Qaeda, possibly against international or European flights.

• This doesn't help.

THE WIDER WAR

• President Bush recently gave a rare news conference in which he dealt with everything from Iraqi WMD to al-Qaeda to his views on marriage. Read the full text of the conference here.

• A Canadian-based al-Qaeda cell was planning to attack the US Embassy in Ottawa but was thwarted thanks to a tip from an unlikely source - Syria.

• The Battle of Monrovia rages on in Liberia and the fighting has now spread to Buchanan as well. The residents of Monrovia at least appear happy for the company.

• The Taliban have emerged from the sewer hiding and have recently killed 6 Afghan police in Helmand province, near Mullah Omar's ancestral home.

• Afghan warlord Atta Mohammed has rejected a US-backed peace plan that was geared towards resolving his long-standing feud with rival warlord Abdul Rashid Dostam.

• According to Indian counter-terrorism expert K. P. S. Gill, al-Qaeda is run by a brain trust of Islamist clerics. Alphabet City has the scoop on at least one member of this brain trust, as well as yet more on the al-Ghamdi family that we all know and love.

• Speaking al-Ghamdis, at least one was killed in a gun battle in Uyoon al-Jawa on Tuesday. This comes as both Prince Nayef and US intelligence sources are claiming that there are al-Qaeda training camps in Saudi Arabia.

• The UK has finally had enough with al-Muhajiroun (the suicide bombing in Tel Aviv was hopefully a factor in this decision) and has raided the group's offices and the homes of its leadership according to its Islamist website.

• Equatoria Guinea's dictator, Teodoro Nguema, has declared himself God, which may explain his 100% reelection figures back in 2002.

• With the Australian intervention force headed for the Solomon Islands, warlord Harold Keke is trying to negotiate a surrender, while the major militia leaders have agreed to meet with the Solomon Islands government.

• Remember those European tourists who were kidnapped in Algeria? They've been moved to Mali and their kidnappers, members of the Algerian GSPC, have released a videotape with demands.

• We try to close on a lighter note if possible. The BBC strikes a lot of people these days as, I dunno, a little biased these days. Mark Steyn muses how today's BBC might have handled, say, the death of Mussolini, complete with scare quotes.