Andrew's Winds of War: 2003-08-11

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted - soon to be Major Andrew Olmsted.

TOP TOPICS

• Did the Administration inflate the Iraq threat to gain support for the war? The Washington Post has an in-depth feature that traces some of the Washington lineage of the Iraqi nuclear debate, and examines this question.

• JK: Armed Liberal discusses Iraq and the War on Terror, in terms of John Boyd's insights. We've covered Boyd a lot in our "4th Generation Warfare" category.

• JK: Trent discusses America's grand strategy in terms of "The Core, the Gap, and American Foreign Policy", a piece based on Esquire's article "The Pentagon's New Map." Some good material in the comments section, too, about the relationship between the War on Terror and The War on Drugs.

Other Topics Today Include: More evidence of al Qaeda in Iraq; riots in Basra; Iran's nuclear program; Iran & Cuba; The mullahs' internal tactics; Is DHS really helping at home; SAM suspicions; From peace dividend to power projection; Israel & Hezbollah; Women & Islam in France & Afghanistan; Charles Taylor prepares to resign; Russian talks between the Koreas; cooling tensions between India-Pakistan; and an Air France pilot's comedy routine bombs.

IRAQ BRIEFING

• Bring 'em on, the President called, and there's more evidence his challenge is being taken up by al Qaeda. It's looking increasingly likely the United States forces in Iraq will be facing a more dangerous enemy in coming weeks, as foreign fighters are taking up Saddam's war with the United States. Long-term, this is good news for the United States, as it provides an excellent opportunity to burn out still more Islamofascists, but in the short run we can expect many more news stories about attacks on Americans in Iraq.

• Riots in Basra over fuel and power shortages led to the deaths of at least three. The fighting appears to be over for now, but further uprisings may be in the cards as Shiite clerics attempt to pressure the occupation into allowing immediate home rule.

• JK: Sadr wants more than that, actually. Mahdi's Army? At least things are improving in Sunni Fallujah. You also don't want to miss Tom Friedman's dinner with Shi'ite cleric Sayyid Iyad Jamaleddine, and his guest Sayyid Hussein Khomeni.

• Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) is calling on the Bush Administration to seek a U.N. resolution in hopes of gaining greater international support for the U.S. occupation. With a Republican now making the request, it may be more difficult for the Administration to avoid the demands, which would mean new concessions by the U.S.

• It's fence-mending time for Turkey. A top Turkish general says Turkey is prepared to assist the United States with a multinational peacekeeping force in Iraq. Will this repair the damage caused by Turkish intransigence prior to the war? If it keeps the U.S. from returning to the U.N. with hat in hand, absolutely.

• Were the postwar issues the United States now faces in Iraq known beforehand? The CIA claims they predicted many of them back in February, adding fuel to the fire of why the United States seemed singularly unprepared for anything after the fighting stopped.

• JK: Joe explains why he thinks that's a very flawed after-action analysis. Without some additional information, he says, the above paragraph and its linked piece don't even meet the standard of useful information.

• A judicial inquiry into the death of British scientist David Kelly begins Monday. How the report comes out is likely to have a significant effect on the Blair government...or possibly, the BBC. Both sides have much at stake here, so watch for plenty of fire between the two sides in an attempt to put the proper spin on the issue.

• JK: American human shields in Iraq broke the law, face $10,000 fine as a settlement offer or threat of further legal action. Heh.

• Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."

• The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003]

IRAN REPORTS

• Proliferation marches on, as an LA Times investigation of Iran's nuclear program suggests the obvious: they're not just looking for a new source of energy when the oil runs out. Invading Iran is almost impossible now as the United States tries to clean up Iraq. It may be impossible soon because Iran will have joined the nuclear powers.

• JK: M. Simon passes along an Insight Magazine article concerning the jamming of U.S. satellite broadcasts to Iran by the Cuban facility at Bejucal. You mean Islamists are working with a communist atheist government to strike at U.S. targets?

• State/Defense infighting may have spilled over into Iran, as there are reports two DOD employees seeking independent intelligence on Iran met with an Iranian tied to the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal. How much longer, one wonders, will the President allow his two most important departments to spend as much time on internal sniping as in doing their jobs?

• Possibly hoping to forestall regime change, Iran is offering to try at least some of the al Qaeda suspects they're holding. Such a move might well give the clerics the room they need to stay in power. Assuming they can hold off their own people.

• And if Sayyid Hussein Khomeini has his way, that still won't be enough. Grandson of the infamous Ayatollah, Khomeini is more than willing to have the U.S.'s help in freeing his country from the mullahs.

• Give the mullahs credit for not being stupid, however. The government has ordered the closure of offices intended to screen reformist candidates for next year's legislative elections.

U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

• The Department of Homeland Security is evaluating certain overseas airports for their vulnerability to shoulder-fired surface to air missile attacks. It's questionable how much help this will be in protecting aircraft, but the fact they're checking raises the question: do they have some information about potential SAM attacks? Or is this just another expenditure designed to cover someone's ass?

• Charles V. Pena of the Cato Institute asks some questions about the utility of the DHS thus far. Are they really doing anything to protect Americans, or are they just doing their best to give that impression?

• JK: Which is a perfect segue for Porphy's "discussion of generational attitudes and institutions that don't work." A really good article.

THE WIDER WAR

• JK: Armed Liberal begs to differ with "Spengler." The West does have a base of belief with which to fight radical Islam. Here's why he'll bet on the 19-year old female Limp Bizkit fan over a trained al-Qaeda terrorist any day.

• The peace dividend helped fuel the budget balances of the 1990s, but will it com back to haunt us now? Power projection is the name of the game for the United States, and with only eight carriers left in the Navy, projecting power into multiple theaters may no longer be in the cards. How will this affect future hotspots when the United States next deploys most of its assets into one place?

• Peace talks in Israel go on, but Ariel Sharon says the peace process cannot work without Palestinian assistance.

• Hezbollah guerrillas fired shells into northern Israel from Lebanon, killing one and wounding five, while an Israeli raid on a West Bank bomb factory killed two terrorists and an Israeli soldier. The question remains, is Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas willing and/or able to act against the terrorists?

• JK - Women & Islam I: A number of young women in Afghanistan are setting themselves on fire to protest their treatment. (Hat Tip: M. Simon) It's becoming an issue there, and experts are reportedly puzzled that it's happening post-Taliban. The experts are fools, then; it's common knowledge that the most dangerous time for depressed people isn't at the bottom of the cycle, but shortly thereafter. Ditto for the history of political revolution and the notion of "rising expectations."

• JK - Women & Islam II: Newsweek's "Sexism in the Cités" indicates that mainstream media is finally catching up with the blogosphere re: the problem of rape in the Muslim ghettos of France (Hat Tip: M. Simon). For deeper background on this issue, see also "More on Islam, Rape & Multiculturalism" and The Occupied Territories of Arab Imagination."

• Liberian 'President' Charles Taylor issued a farewell address to the nation today, claiming he was being forced from power by the United States. Still up in the air, however, is news of when a peacekeeping force can actually move into the country.

• Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee called for an end to bloodshed between India and Pakistan. Although ongoing peace talks are unofficial, the imprimatur of the Prime Minister cannot hurt the proceedings. A cooling of tensions between the nuclear neighbors could significantly assist Pakistan's ruling general as he tries to walk the line between helping the U.S. in the war on terror while keeping his own population happy.

• As a precursor to talks over the North Korean nuclear situation, Russia will host preparatory talks with North and South Korea this week.

• We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Who says the French don't have a sense of humor? Don't tell that to Philippe Rivere, an Air France pilot who tried to lighten up a security screener's day by telling him there was a bomb in Rivere's shoe. Sadly for Rivere, the TSA doesn't possess quite the same rapier wit, and Rivere is now facing criminal charges.

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