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August 11, 2003

Andrew's Winds of War: 2003-08-11

by Andrew Olmsted at August 11, 2003 12:14 AM

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted - soon to be Major Andrew Olmsted.

TOP TOPICS

  • JK: Trent discusses America's grand strategy in terms of "The Core, the Gap, and American Foreign Policy", a piece based on Esquire's article "The Pentagon's New Map." Some good material in the comments section, too, about the relationship between the War on Terror and The War on Drugs.

Other Topics Today Include: More evidence of al Qaeda in Iraq; riots in Basra; Iran's nuclear program; Iran & Cuba; The mullahs' internal tactics; Is DHS really helping at home; SAM suspicions; From peace dividend to power projection; Israel & Hezbollah; Women & Islam in France & Afghanistan; Charles Taylor prepares to resign; Russian talks between the Koreas; cooling tensions between India-Pakistan; and an Air France pilot's comedy routine bombs.

IRAQ BRIEFING

  • Bring 'em on, the President called, and there's more evidence his challenge is being taken up by al Qaeda. It's looking increasingly likely the United States forces in Iraq will be facing a more dangerous enemy in coming weeks, as foreign fighters are taking up Saddam's war with the United States. Long-term, this is good news for the United States, as it provides an excellent opportunity to burn out still more Islamofascists, but in the short run we can expect many more news stories about attacks on Americans in Iraq.
  • Riots in Basra over fuel and power shortages led to the deaths of at least three. The fighting appears to be over for now, but further uprisings may be in the cards as Shiite clerics attempt to pressure the occupation into allowing immediate home rule.
  • Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) is calling on the Bush Administration to seek a U.N. resolution in hopes of gaining greater international support for the U.S. occupation. With a Republican now making the request, it may be more difficult for the Administration to avoid the demands, which would mean new concessions by the U.S.
  • It's fence-mending time for Turkey. A top Turkish general says Turkey is prepared to assist the United States with a multinational peacekeeping force in Iraq. Will this repair the damage caused by Turkish intransigence prior to the war? If it keeps the U.S. from returning to the U.N. with hat in hand, absolutely.
  • Were the postwar issues the United States now faces in Iraq known beforehand? The CIA claims they predicted many of them back in February, adding fuel to the fire of why the United States seemed singularly unprepared for anything after the fighting stopped.
  • A judicial inquiry into the death of British scientist David Kelly begins Monday. How the report comes out is likely to have a significant effect on the Blair government...or possibly, the BBC. Both sides have much at stake here, so watch for plenty of fire between the two sides in an attempt to put the proper spin on the issue.
  • The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003]

IRAN REPORTS

  • State/Defense infighting may have spilled over into Iran, as there are reports two DOD employees seeking independent intelligence on Iran met with an Iranian tied to the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal. How much longer, one wonders, will the President allow his two most important departments to spend as much time on internal sniping as in doing their jobs?
  • Possibly hoping to forestall regime change, Iran is offering to try at least some of the al Qaeda suspects they're holding. Such a move might well give the clerics the room they need to stay in power. Assuming they can hold off their own people.
  • Give the mullahs credit for not being stupid, however. The government has ordered the closure of offices intended to screen reformist candidates for next year's legislative elections.

U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

  • The Department of Homeland Security is evaluating certain overseas airports for their vulnerability to shoulder-fired surface to air missile attacks. It's questionable how much help this will be in protecting aircraft, but the fact they're checking raises the question: do they have some information about potential SAM attacks? Or is this just another expenditure designed to cover someone's ass?
  • Charles V. Pena of the Cato Institute asks some questions about the utility of the DHS thus far. Are they really doing anything to protect Americans, or are they just doing their best to give that impression?

THE WIDER WAR

  • The peace dividend helped fuel the budget balances of the 1990s, but will it com back to haunt us now? Power projection is the name of the game for the United States, and with only eight carriers left in the Navy, projecting power into multiple theaters may no longer be in the cards. How will this affect future hotspots when the United States next deploys most of its assets into one place?
  • Hezbollah guerrillas fired shells into northern Israel from Lebanon, killing one and wounding five, while an Israeli raid on a West Bank bomb factory killed two terrorists and an Israeli soldier. The question remains, is Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas willing and/or able to act against the terrorists?
  • JK - Women & Islam I: A number of young women in Afghanistan are setting themselves on fire to protest their treatment. (Hat Tip: M. Simon) It's becoming an issue there, and experts are reportedly puzzled that it's happening post-Taliban. The experts are fools, then; it's common knowledge that the most dangerous time for depressed people isn't at the bottom of the cycle, but shortly thereafter. Ditto for the history of political revolution and the notion of "rising expectations."
  • Liberian 'President' Charles Taylor issued a farewell address to the nation today, claiming he was being forced from power by the United States. Still up in the air, however, is news of when a peacekeeping force can actually move into the country.
  • Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee called for an end to bloodshed between India and Pakistan. Although ongoing peace talks are unofficial, the imprimatur of the Prime Minister cannot hurt the proceedings. A cooling of tensions between the nuclear neighbors could significantly assist Pakistan's ruling general as he tries to walk the line between helping the U.S. in the war on terror while keeping his own population happy.
  • We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Who says the French don't have a sense of humor? Don't tell that to Philippe Rivere, an Air France pilot who tried to lighten up a security screener's day by telling him there was a bomb in Rivere's shoe. Sadly for Rivere, the TSA doesn't possess quite the same rapier wit, and Rivere is now facing criminal charges.

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.


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Comments
#1 from Joe Katzman at 3:38 am on Aug 11, 2003

Re: DoD employees talking to someone connected with Iran-Contra, the "so what" question goes through my mind here. Shouldn't they seek such intelligence, to get a fuller picture, and do so independently if necessary? If so, why not work with someone already known to them? Wouldn't ignoring people like that be stupid? If they were ignored, wouldn't there be cries that obvious sources were overlooked on a crucial policy question?

I don't get the issue here. Sounds like everyone is doing what they ought to do. There may be a State - DoD problem that goes beyond normal human nature and organizational politics here, but this doesn't strike me as valid evidence for that assertion.

#2 from Kian at 6:03 pm on Aug 11, 2003

In regards to the closure of the offices intended to screen reformist candidates for next year's legislative elections.. I believe they were closed by reformist factions - so that guys like Rafsanjani and Khomenei would not be able to screen the candidates and see what they're all about, and subsequently reject the ones who are too "reformist" in nature... But in Iran - what the heck does "reformist" mean? Absolutely NADA!!!!

Btw, good overview - posted at the Blog-Iran Chronicles [activistchat.com]

Best,
Kian

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