Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Israel & its neighbours. N.B. We're seeking candidates to handle this briefing in future. Email joe, at windsofchange.net.
TOP TOPIC:
* Daniel Pipes looks at Oslo. He asks: "What went wrong?" Then he answers the question.
Other Topics Today Include: Israeli conclusions; Gaza gambits; The fence; Media bias; The PA's efforts; $900 million embezzlement; Abu-Bakr chastises his colleagues; Syrian & Lebanese reforms; Israeli mangoes, beer in Arab countries; Interfaith marriages in Israel; Jews & Indians in America; Jews & Democrats.
THE ROADMAP FORWARD
* Even Beirut Calling says the Road Map is dead. What's interesting is that he argues the concept from the other side, and makes the evident point that attempts to isolate Arafat have failed thus far.
* What conclusion have the Israelis drawn from all this? Near as I can tell, this sums it up for most of them. Which brings us to...
* Reports that the Israeli Army is headed for a major Gaza campaign. I've heard this many times. The thing that gives this one credence is the talk of ousting or killing Arafat. If Israel does that, worse publicity is impossible; only effectiveness matters. Its best strategic play, therefore, is to crush Hamas & Islamic Jihad at the same time in one broad decapitation move. A gain of that magnitude would justify the gamble.
* Meanwhile, Ira Sharkansky explains why the fence will go forward, international pressure or no. Oh yeah, he also fisks Thomas Friedman's opinion that the fence would cause Palestinians to seek a one-state solution. Short summary: they want that now - and that's why we're building the fence. The only serious arguments in Israel are about where to put it.
* Oddly, a similar fence being built in Kashmir, where 2 nuclear powers face each other over threats of war, does not draw Friedman's concern.
* Imshin translates an article that explains why a bi-national Jewish-Palestinian state is an impossibility. For reasons less obvious than the Palestinians' fervent promotion of hatred and killing Jews.
THE MEDIA
* Reuters plumbs new depths of dishonesty, and publishes characterizations that are contradicted later in their own article. Meryl Yourish takes it apart.
* The Guardian gets the second barrel. "Let us be clear on what is happening here. In a news story, the Guardian is saying flat out that Hamas's killing of twenty Israeli civilians was not a violation of the ceasefire." I wouldn't call them Nazis, sjostrom. I would call it a clear example of anti-Semitism.
* Sol Stern was a journalist and a Berkeley New Leftist. That changed. He explains how it changed and why, as he tells his story.
THE ARABS
* The new puppet Prime Minister-designate Ahmed Queria held talks to rally support on Sunday for his government-in-the-making. But Qureia's talks in Gaza with a committee representing 13 Palestinian factions did not include Hamas or Islamic Jihad.
* Not that it matters. Tal G. in Jerusalem notes that the "Palestinian Authority" really doesn't see itself as responsible for controlling them, anyway.
* Yasser Arafat, KGB Agent
* How venal and incompetent must the P.A. be, if a population that shows majority approval of suicide bombers is relieved to see Israeli soldiers in Nablus?
* Hmmm... Arafat diverted $900 million in PA funds. That does begin to answer the question. But it doesn't explain this.
* Meanwhile, Palestinian legislator Tawfiq Abu-Bakr publicly condemns the "all-or-nothing" approach of Palestinian maximalists, comparing it to the ideology behind Ze'ev Jabotinsky, icon of the "Greater Israel" movement. Abu-Bakr implicitly sets up Ben-Gurion as a positive counter-example to emulate. Too bad he left out Ben-Gurion's showdown with the Irgun.
* Syria is playing its cards more cautiously these days, but despite reports like these, Zogby Blog notes that real change isn't in the offing yet.
* In an entirely connected development, Lebanon's "reform" efforts aren't going anywhere, either.
THE ISRAELIS
* And yet... and yet... Israelis are happier than Americans, or Canadians. Imshin explians why that might be.
* On the economic front: Israeli mangoes are being "grey-traded" throughout the Islamic world, while its beer is becoming popular in Iraq.
* Kesher Talk addresses the issue of interfaith marriages: does Israel recognize them? Actually, Israsel is an example of something we talked about last week: the state staying out of the marriage game for the most part. Note the positives - and the pitfalls.
MEANWHILE, BACK IN AMERICA...
* The growing ties between Israel and India are being mirrored in America, between the Jewish and Indian diasporas.
* Meanwhile, Benjamin of gefen explain why the more traditional political alliances of American Jews & the Democratic Party are on the ropes. Israel does factor in, and this shift if it happens will have consequences there too. (Hat Tip: M. Simon) For the opposite view, see Judith Weiss. We'll know in 2004.








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