Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2003-10-28

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• Is Bolivia out of the woods now that President Gonzálo Sánchez de Lozada has resigned? Hardly. Cocaine growers on one side, and an unsupportive USA on the other, makes for a tough row to hoe.

• JK: Cuban physician Dr. Oscar Elias Biscet sends a message to his country from the Provincial Prison of Pinar del Río. This civic leader is serving a 25-year sentence in inhumane prison conditions for defending The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. (Hat Tp: Jay Nordlinger)

Other Topics Include: More on Bolivia; The embargo against Cuba; Colombia and Guatemala reports; Venezuela's Chávez threatens referendum petitioners; The best major media source in the USA for information on Latin America.

Bolivia

• Is Bolivia out of the woods now that Gonzálo Sánchez de Lozada has resigned? Hardly, if one reviews what has lead up to the crisis there. In addition to the issue of the gas pipeline and its proposed route through Chile which I mentioned in this briefing, this fine analysis by Larry Rohter in The New York Times puts much of the focus on the coca eradication efforts supported by the US and the resentment this fueled in Bolivia.

• Eduardo Gamarra, a Bolivian and head of the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University thinks newly sworn-in President Carlos Mesa can't expect much relief from either Washington or the cocaleros (coca growers) and their leader, Evo Morales.

• Latin America commentator, Andrés Oppenheimer, while stating clearly that the rebels are anything but democratic, feels that the US needs to review its way of dealing with the War on Drugs.

• Meanwhile, Evo Morales said to the AP recently that the gas could be exported provided Bolivia "recover[s] ownership of the hydrocarbons." President Mesa clearly has a very rough, seemingly hopeless path ahead and it's fraught with a lot of difficulties. Clearly the status quo in this, the poorest country in South America, cannot remain the same.

• A good first hand source for keeping up with what's taking place on the ground in Bolivia is Miguel Centellas' blog.

Cuba

• President Bush has vowed to put more pressure on the Castro regime by tightening the embargo and cracking down even harder on Americans traveling to Cuba. I honestly do not see this as anything other than pandering to the base of support that Bush needs in Florida for 2004. In fairness, this pandering is truly bipartisan as Al Gore clearly demonstrated during the Elian Gonzalez affair and his break with the Clinton administration policy of returning the boy to his father.

• The embargo and travel ban have been in effect for some 40+ years and the net effect has been to strengthen Castro. As I wrote here El Jefe seems to tighten the screws of repression when anything in the way of a thaw starts to take place in Cuban-American relations. This results in the US increasing pressure on Cuba and instills even more fear in the Cuban population as this excellentfirst-hand report of off-the-record conversations with Cubans in The Financial Times clearly demonstrates.

• Yet there is a growing sense in the US across the political spectrum that the travel ban and embargo need to be put in the dustbin of failed ideas. William F. Buckley wrote this column critical of the embargo, the US Senate recently voted not to fund enforcement of the travel ban by 59-36 and the House of Representatives voted 338-91 against funding enforcement of the travel ban. The major dissidents in Cuba, many of whom languish in or have served time in Castro's jails also oppose the embargo and travel ban. Their argument was taken up effectively by Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch in testimony before the US Senate, who noted that many dissidents also want the embargo eased.

• A Cuban dancer who defected to the US recently made the most compelling argument for ending the travel ban. What was that about if you can't bring Mohammed to the mountain, bring the mountain to Mohammed . . .

• JK: Daniel Drezner adds his 2 cents to the debate.

Colombia

• Colombia and Guatemala are having elections. Colombia's is an election taking place the last weekend of October for state and municipal leaders and a referendum on several changes including reducing the number of congressional seats and freezing state salaries and pensions. The FARC, in their continuing effort to make Colombia ungovernable were held responsible for thirteen deaths on the day of the referendum vote while the right-wing paramilitaries led by the AUC are focusing on intimidating their opponents and killing human rights activists.

• Meanwhile, some of those on the right in Colombia are taking their infighting a bit seriously.

• President Uribe, by the way, was on PBS' Newshour a couple of weeks ago and was asked about accusations of his ties to paramilitary groups and Pablo Escobar in his younger days refused to comment on the allegations against him. He also didn't deny them. As of this writing (Sunday night October 26) it appears that President Uribe's referendum is being defeated and his candidate for mayor of Bogotá has been defeated. The average Colombian waits wearily for better days.

Guatemala

• Guatemala is having elections next month and the violence there is increasing.

• One of the leading candidates for president in the Nov. 9 election is former general Efrain Rios Montt, who was dictator in 1982 and 1983 at the height of Guatemala's bloody civil war. Rios Montt's record when he was in power before speaks for itself.

• Rios Montt himself views this violence thusly: "'I think the passion to be the winner that many supporters have makes certain excesses inevitable,' he said. 'But I see that as normal.'" [my emphasis] Perhaps he can explain why it's "normal" for the violence to be perpetrated against those he opposes and not those he supports . . .

Venezuela

• The Venezuelan Electoral Council has set a four day period from November 28 to December 1 to collect signatures for a recall referendum on Hugo Chávez. Chávez, for his part, has thrown down the gauntlet.

• But Chavez warned: "They should know that although they are not going to get (a referendum), their names will be recorded. Unlike in a vote, which is secret, they will sign. They will put their names and surnames, their national ID number and their fingerprint,' he said." As Miguel Octávio noted, Venezuela has a significant segment of employment in the public sector. This certainly appears to be directed to those workers.

General Resources

• Finally, if you are interested in coverage of the Americas in a daily newspaper in the US, the Miami Herald is consistently the best source in the country. They have assembled a comprehensive set of articles in anticipation of the upcoming Americas Conference in Miami. If you're interested in this part of the world, this is a good place to start on some of the major issues facing Latin America.

The next installment of Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be November 25. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.