Andrew's Winds of War: 2004-01-12

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com.

TOP TOPICS

• Up to half of the candidates for Iran's parliamentary elections have been barred from next month's elections, prompting a number of serving ministers to stage a sit-in in protest. President Mohammad Khatami says he will hold talks with the Guardian Council in hopes of reversing the decision. If Khatami fails, it could lead to his resignation; this showdown will have significant effects on the future direction of Iran's politics. (Hat tip: Instapundit).

Other Topics Today Include: OIF II kicks off; Iraqis riot for jobs; America claims it has proof of Russian perfidy; and the Dutch may have found a few of Saddam's WMDs.

IRAQ BRIEFING

• U.S. forces confirmed that the Black Hawk helicopter that went down near Fallujah this week was probably downed by ground fire. This attack may be indicative of the presence of foreign fighters supporting the Iraq resistance, although certainly Iraq possessed plenty of munitions prior to the invasion that they could use against Coalition forces.

• Operation Iraqi Freedom II is beginning, removing the 123,000 American troops currently in Iraq and replacing them 110,000 soldiers and marines. The transition will provide numerous opportunities for attacks on U.S. forces. What happens over that period will be a significant indicator of the state of enemy forces in Iraq, as if they possibly can, they'll want to take advantage of this opportunity.

Hat tip: The Agonist.

• Iraqi impatience over the pace of the reconstruction boiled over this weekend, throwing stones at British troops and suffering six dead and eleven wounded. (Hat tip: The Agonist).

• There are still those who claim Russia as an American ally. The United States claims it has evidence that Russia provided high-tech military equipment (use laexaminer/laexaminer) to Iraq in violation of UN sanctions. If true, this should provide a valuable bargaining chip in convincing Russia to forgive Iraq's debts. (Hat tip: Instapundit).

• The WMD question remains up in the air after Dutch inspectors found mortar rounds that may contain mustard gas, a blister agent. The weapons likely date back to the Iran-Iraq war, although they would still represent a violation of the UN requirements. (Hat tip: Instapundit).

• Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."

• The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated Dec. 25, 2003]

• Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!

IRAN REPORTS

• If Iran and the United States are to get along, the U.S. must accept Iran's right to nuclear technology, says Iran's President, Mohammad Khatami. This doesn't bode well for U.S.-Iranian relations in the near term. (Hat tip: Little Green Footballs).

THE WIDER WAR

• Michael Totten breaks it down an explains just why the war is so important: not because we might lose, but because of what might happen if our current tactics fail.

• North Korea continues its bait and switch with its nuclear programs; having shown evidence of its ability to build nuclear weapons to a U.S. delegation visiting North Korea last week. The North Koreans assured them that they are willing to freeze their program again in exchange for U.S. concessions (surprise). Thus far, however, the Bush administration is holding fast to its demands that North Korea submit to inspections to verify the dismantling of their program.

• The United States gave Uzbekistan a failing grade for its human rights practices, a first for a former Soviet republic. The move is only symbolic, but it may serve notice to nations nominally allied with the United States that support for the war will not translate to a blind eye on human rights violations. Or it could show that the U.S. is only talking a good game on human rights; either way, expect it to become an issue in the war.

• Israel is discussing potential peace talks with Syria if Syria stops providing support to Hezbollah. But it will probably take some pointed hints from the United States before Syria is willing to take that step.

• It appears the United Kingdom may have stopped a suicide bomber, although there are no details available regarding the target. (Hat tip: Instapundit).

• We try to close on a lighter note if possible. In tribute to Joe's earlier post, Scott Ott explains how Rush Limbaugh secured the Eagles' victory Sunday.

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