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Andrew's Winds of War: 2004-02-02

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Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com. TOP TOPICS * Based on U.S. intelligence suggesting a possible bioweapons attack by al Qaeda, several transatlantic flights were cancelled over the weekend, as was a Continental Airlines Houston to Washington flight. The intelligence was not specific, but the cancellations marked the latest incidence of the U.S.'s better safe than sorry policy. * Cairo correspondent Tarek Heggy is back with a new series. Today, he begins "The Future of the Moslem Mind". Part 1 deals with 'the mentality of violence' and its origins. * Suicide bombers struck again in Iraq today, killing at least 56 people in Erbil in a strike at the two main Kurdish political parties. It is too early to tell whether the attacks were the work of anti-Coalition forces, or a sign of internal political conflict between some of the many parties vying to control Iraq when the Coalition leaves. Coming as it does just prior to Super Tuesday, however, it may provide a boost to Howard Dean's candidacy as it undermines U.S. domestic support for the war and puts the issue back in the spotlight. Other Topics Today Include: U.S. forces start turning Baghdad over to Iraqis; President Bush prepares to initiate a probe into U.S. intelligence failures before Iraq; more than 100 Iranian MPs resign; is the U.S. starting to take on the Saudis on terror; Israel demands Syria leave Lebanon.
IRAQ BRIEFING * It was a tough weekend in Iraq. A bomb-filled car exploded near a Mosul police station Saturday, killing nine Iraqis and injuring 45. A roadside bombing, meanwhile, killed three American soldiers near Kirkuk. * U.S. forces in Baghdad are starting to turn over responsibility for security of the Iraqi capital to Iraqi forces. If the locals can handle the job, it will mark a major turning point in the transition from occupation to home rule, not to mention reducing the threat faced by Coalition troops. Hat tip: The Agonist. * Bowing to growing pressure, President Bush will now support an independent inquiry of the prewar intelligence that indicated Iraq still possessed weapons of mass destruction. Longtime readers of my weblog know that I've been calling for such an investigation for some time, so I'm pleased to see it may now become a reality. * WMD inspector David Kay called President Bush's policy of preemption into question in light of the apparently dismal state of U.S. intelligence about Iraq. Kay's got an excellent point; while preemption is to be preferred over waiting until we're attacked, we need to be as close to 100% certain of the threat before we act. * The Observer is claiming that the Coalition knew Iraq possessed no WMDs back in May. This is quite damning, if true, and could pose the next threat to Tony Blair's hold on the British government. Hat tip: The Agonist. * Why does the accuracy of U.S. intelligence regarding Iraq matter? Because now people are going to start using that failure to suggest that our intelligence in other areas is wrong as well. * Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker." * The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated Dec. 25, 2003] * Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive! IRAN REPORTS * In response to hardliners banning numerous candidates from Iran's upcoming elections, over 100 Iranian Ministers of Parliament resigned in protest. * Meanwhile Iran and the U.S. are moving towards closer ties after a 25-year estrangement. If the U.S. can convince Iran to trade its support of terror for a normal relationship between the two countries, it could be a win-win for both nations (though it's an unlikely outcome). * JK: Very, very, very unlikely. Iranian democrats from the students movement to Iran Va Jahan are deeply dismayed. As they should be. Michael Ledeen adds some more background - and his expose of Sen. Arlen Specter's record is particularly noteworthy. U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING * Our greatest ally in protecting the United States from domestic terror could be the Post Office. Glenn Reynolds talks about the discovery of a significant arsenal in Texas where the big break was a package delivered to the wrong person. THE WIDER WAR * The U.S. may be starting to address Saudi support for terrorism, quietly expelling dozens of Saudi diplomats suspected of promulgating al Qaeda ideology. There's still the question of the madrassas to address, but perhaps the Bush administration is getting serious about one of the more important issues of the war. * The battle for Afghanistan isn't over yet, and here is a disturbing article about many of the problems that continue to plague Afghanistan under the radar. * Phil Carter, meanwhile, discusses reports of a major U.S. offensive in the works there. * Steven den Beste takes a long look at the situation in the Palestinian-occupied territories and foresees some bad news for the Palestinians and some good news for the war against Islamofascism. * Israel is warning Syria to evacuate Lebanon, though it made no specific threats or promises regarding Syrian noncompliance. Still, raising the issue of Lebanon adds to the pressure on Assad's government. * The father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb has confessed that he shared nuclear technology with North Korea, Iran, and Libya. This revelation serves as a disturbing reminder that Pakistan's allegiance in the war on Islamofascism is, at best, mixed. Hat tip: Instapundit. * We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Anyone who saw the video of Saddam Hussein's capture know that he really let himself go while he was on the run. But, thanks to the kind folks at Bravo, it appears Saddam will soon look better than ever. Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.

2 TrackBacks

Tracked: February 2, 2004 6:55 PM
The Wider War from Stryker Brigade News
Excerpt: The latest edition of the Winds of War has been posted over at Winds of Change. Check it out if you're interested in recent news and analysis regarding the war on terror....
Tracked: February 4, 2004 5:16 AM
Iraq Update from porphyrogenitus.net
Excerpt: Ralph Peters writes on the bombings in Kurdish Iraq as an attack on freedom and a desecration of faith:Terrorists who pervert their religion to justify atrocities aren't waging holy war. Islam doesn't permit the slaughter of the innocent. And the

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