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Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-03-23

| 3 Comments | 2 TrackBacks

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus.

TOP TOPICS

  • If you are reading this briefing, you're probably the type of person who knows that, at the very least, a whole lot of something is happening in Pakistan and Afghanistan right now. It would be foolhardy for me to give a blow-by-blow here, but Operation Mountain Storm is well underway and is designed to capture, kill, or flush into Afghanistan the militants taking refuge in Pakistan's tribal regions. For reports of various engagements over the past month, check out the Winds of War Archive at this very blog or Eye on the World's brief report.
  • Civil war was narrowly averted in Georgia this month following a quickly-escalating crisis precipitated when officials in the semi-autonomous region of Ajaria barred President Saakashvili from entering the region.
  • In the New Yorker, Seymour Hersh connects the dots between Libya, Pakistan's nuclear arms market, and Operation Mountain Storm. The Agonist has more information, courtesy of Stratfor.

Other Topics Today Include: More on Yo'ldosh & the IMU; Georgia's Ajaria Problem; Uzbekistan, Human Rights, and The West; Turkmenistan's Continuing Slide Towards Absurdity; and, Much More.

Afghanistan

  • For more background on Tohir Yo'ldosh and the IMU, see my post at The Argus. The IMU occupies an interesting niche in Central and South Asian terror groups. It's certainly close to al Qaeda (maybe closer to AQ than it ever was to the Taliban), but rumored to do work for Pakistan's intelligence service as well.
  • Provincial Reconstruction Teams are experiencing a bit of mission creep, picking up a security role as the spring offensive moves closer.
  • Human Rights Watch has released a report alleging abuses by US soldiers. In fairness, I didn't read it. It's probably nothing new to me. I feel HRW is very unfair, but you can decide for yourself. The US military offers up the criticisms I would make.
  • On International Women's Day, Hamid Karzi urged men to let their wives register to vote, telling them they could later control how they vote. Needless to say, women in Afghanistan continue to face many obstacles. Eurasianet says that new constitutional protections of women's rights are hollow.

Caucasus

  • Prior to this flare-up, Georgia and the autonomous Ajaria region were equally determined to get their own way. In Ajaria's case, President Abashidze is committed to maintaining his authority, and Georgia insists that Ajaria must hold free and fair elections in the upcoming parliamentary vote. Even before the aforementioned crisis between Tbilis & Ajaria, street fighting and arson reared their heads in Ajaria as tensions simmered.
  • Erratic domestic policy in Azerbaijan could be a conscious decision to throw off internal opposition and the international community, or a sign of President Aliyev struggling to maintain control over the rest of the country's elites.
  • Saakashvili sends a little love to the Jews, mentioning how he admires Israeli society and that Georgians love Jews. He is hoping that Jewish leaders will invest in Georgia and strengthen the country's Jewish population, which currently stands at 10,000.

Uzbekistan

  • The International Crisis Group reports that Western governments and institutions are failing in their policies towards Uzbekistan. As the ICG usually does, a laundry list of policy suggestions, most of them very realistic and achievable, are offered to all parties involved.

Etceterastan

  • Border issues are a constant source of frustration in Central Asia. Tajik villagers are expanding the borders with apricots! The have planted hundreds of apricot trees on Kyrgyz territory accusing the Kyrgyz of cutting into their irrigation lines and reducing flow. Borders cut traditionally linked villages and families apart. Add water rights to the mess, and the problem only grows.
  • Radioactive waste is threatening large areas of Central Asia. Did I ever mention I used to live down the street from a plutonium refinery? The tailings from the mining and processing were dumped out in the Kyzyl Kum for the nomads and Kazak villagers to deal with.
  • Kazakstan is denying any connection to SMB Computers, a Dubai-based company that was a front for money-laundering in Abdul Qadeer Khan's nuclear-trafficking ring. The company apparently had a Kazakhstan office at one time and there are worries that if there is still enriched uranium in Kazakstan, SMB could have bribed officials to move it out of the country.
  • Kazakstan's President Nazarbayev is facing attacks from a former ally, inspiring what appears to be a revolt withing the ranks of the President's party. Spokesemen are denying it outright, so it must be serious.
  • Meanwhile, Nazarbayev recently wrote an op-ed in the Washington Times discussing Kazakstan's reforms over the past decade.
  • Turkmenistan, strangest of the Central Asian states. The nearly North Korean levels of oddity continue as the "sacred image and bright memory" of Atamurat Niyazov, the father of President Saparmurat "Turkmenbashi" Niyazov, is immortalized by the parliament.
  • In less consequential, but quite interesting, news from Turkmenistan, the newly-imposed ban on beards is angering students.
  • Central Asian textile arts are a little side passion of mine; rugs in particular. Proving that there is a blog for everything, a rug expert maintains the fascinating Turkmen Rugs blog.

2 TrackBacks

Tracked: March 23, 2004 4:29 PM
'Stans Summary from The Agonist
Excerpt: Nathan Hamm of The Argus has an excellent Central Asia summary up over at Winds of Change. Do give it a read.
Tracked: March 23, 2004 8:52 PM
Excerpt: Nathan Hamm's Central Asian briefing is posted over at Winds of Change. Nathan believes that, contrary to earlier reports, the "high value target" the Pakistanis cornered in South Waziristan was not Ayman Al-Zawahiri but most likely Tohir Yo'ldosh, the...

3 Comments

Nathan - I heard something yesterday about a drone crashing in Kabul - have you seen anything about that?

Briefly on one of my moreover feeds. I think this is what you're looking for. Looks fairly tame, but kind of interesting.

Thanks. Looks like there's nothing to it, which is why you didn't mention it, I suppose.

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