Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus.
TOP TOPICS
- If you are reading this briefing, you're probably the type of person who knows that, at the very least, a whole lot of something is happening in Pakistan and Afghanistan right now. It would be foolhardy for me to give a blow-by-blow here, but Operation Mountain Storm is well underway and is designed to capture, kill, or flush into Afghanistan the militants taking refuge in Pakistan's tribal regions. For reports of various engagements over the past month, check out the Winds of War Archive at this very blog or Eye on the World's brief report.
- Early speculation that Pakistani troops had cornered Ayman al-Zawahiri appears to be untrue. However, it looks like the group making its last stand near Wana, Pakistan is none other than the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The "high value target" is most likely Tohir Yo'ldosh, the co-founder of the IMU. Whoever was there may have escaped through a tunnel system and fled for Afghanistan.
- Civil war was narrowly averted in Georgia this month following a quickly-escalating crisis precipitated when officials in the semi-autonomous region of Ajaria barred President Saakashvili from entering the region.
- In the New Yorker, Seymour Hersh connects the dots between Libya, Pakistan's nuclear arms market, and Operation Mountain Storm. The Agonist has more information, courtesy of Stratfor.
Other Topics Today Include: More on Yo'ldosh & the IMU; Georgia's Ajaria Problem; Uzbekistan, Human Rights, and The West; Turkmenistan's Continuing Slide Towards Absurdity; and, Much More.
Afghanistan
- For more background on Tohir Yo'ldosh and the IMU, see my post at The Argus. The IMU occupies an interesting niche in Central and South Asian terror groups. It's certainly close to al Qaeda (maybe closer to AQ than it ever was to the Taliban), but rumored to do work for Pakistan's intelligence service as well.
- Provincial Reconstruction Teams are experiencing a bit of mission creep, picking up a security role as the spring offensive moves closer.
- Eurasianet has an interview with NATO's civilian representative in Afghanistan. The bottom line? NATO needs to progressively expand throughout the country to guarantee security.
- The attempted assassination of Herat's warlord, his son's death at the hands of opponents, and the violent factional fighting that followed underscore the need for NATO's expansion and will be a test for Afghanistan's military.
- 23 Afghans and 3 Pakistanis have been freed from Guantanamo and some are alleging mistreatment. All the teenagers seemed to have enjoyed it.
- Human Rights Watch has released a report alleging abuses by US soldiers. In fairness, I didn't read it. It's probably nothing new to me. I feel HRW is very unfair, but you can decide for yourself. The US military offers up the criticisms I would make.
- On International Women's Day, Hamid Karzi urged men to let their wives register to vote, telling them they could later control how they vote. Needless to say, women in Afghanistan continue to face many obstacles. Eurasianet says that new constitutional protections of women's rights are hollow.
- RFE/RL's Afghanistan reports self-immolation is on the ris among women in Western Afghanistan.
- Here's something more upbeat. A photo essay on Kabul's construction boom.
Caucasus
- The crisis between Georgia and Ajaria ended nearly as quickly as it began. Eurasianet offers a good summary and Sean-Paul, who's actually been there, gives color and commentary. Tbilisi blockaded Ajaria. In response, Ajaria declared a state of emergency, imposed a curfew, and handed out weapons to Abashidze loyalists. I opined that this whole situation was a test of Russia's willingness to flex its muscles in the "near abroad." In the end, Russia cut Ajaria loose and gave Saakashvili a fairly free hand. Abashidze was left in an unenviable position and ceded power to Tbilisi in exchange for the lifting of the blockade. The latest news is that Ajaria is backpedalling on its agreements, prompting the threat of resumed sanctions.
- Prior to this flare-up, Georgia and the autonomous Ajaria region were equally determined to get their own way. In Ajaria's case, President Abashidze is committed to maintaining his authority, and Georgia insists that Ajaria must hold free and fair elections in the upcoming parliamentary vote. Even before the aforementioned crisis between Tbilis & Ajaria, street fighting and arson reared their heads in Ajaria as tensions simmered.
- One of Georgian President Saakashvili's major challenges is stemming corruption. Opponents are accusing him of using anti-democratic means to advance democracy.
- Erratic domestic policy in Azerbaijan could be a conscious decision to throw off internal opposition and the international community, or a sign of President Aliyev struggling to maintain control over the rest of the country's elites.
- Saakashvili sends a little love to the Jews, mentioning how he admires Israeli society and that Georgians love Jews. He is hoping that Jewish leaders will invest in Georgia and strengthen the country's Jewish population, which currently stands at 10,000.
Uzbekistan
- The deadline for the registration of foreign NGOs has been extended by one month in Uzbekistan. In a related story, Uzbekistan denies that it is taxing incoming charity money at a rate of 40%. The Turkmen government is easing registration requirements for religious groups altogether, apparently due to US pressure.
- The International Crisis Group reports that Western governments and institutions are failing in their policies towards Uzbekistan. As the ICG usually does, a laundry list of policy suggestions, most of them very realistic and achievable, are offered to all parties involved.
- A number of media outlets offer comments to the ICG's report on Uzbekistan. The WaPo has a good story on Karimov, human rights, and US policy. IHT adds that the West coddles Karimov. Transitions Online argues the first step towards change is to stop the money. Meanwhile, at the OSCE, the US signalled its displeasure with the Uzbek government's rights record, indicating that it may in fact stop the money.
Etceterastan
- Border issues are a constant source of frustration in Central Asia. Tajik villagers are expanding the borders with apricots! The have planted hundreds of apricot trees on Kyrgyz territory accusing the Kyrgyz of cutting into their irrigation lines and reducing flow. Borders cut traditionally linked villages and families apart. Add water rights to the mess, and the problem only grows.
- Radioactive waste is threatening large areas of Central Asia. Did I ever mention I used to live down the street from a plutonium refinery? The tailings from the mining and processing were dumped out in the Kyzyl Kum for the nomads and Kazak villagers to deal with.
- Drug resistant TB is raging in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
- Kazakstan is denying any connection to SMB Computers, a Dubai-based company that was a front for money-laundering in Abdul Qadeer Khan's nuclear-trafficking ring. The company apparently had a Kazakhstan office at one time and there are worries that if there is still enriched uranium in Kazakstan, SMB could have bribed officials to move it out of the country.
- Kazakstan's President Nazarbayev is facing attacks from a former ally, inspiring what appears to be a revolt withing the ranks of the President's party. Spokesemen are denying it outright, so it must be serious.
- Meanwhile, Nazarbayev recently wrote an op-ed in the Washington Times discussing Kazakstan's reforms over the past decade.
- Turkmenistan, strangest of the Central Asian states. The nearly North Korean levels of oddity continue as the "sacred image and bright memory" of Atamurat Niyazov, the father of President Saparmurat "Turkmenbashi" Niyazov, is immortalized by the parliament.
- The replacement of 15,000 nurses and orderlies with soldiers in Turkmenistan leaves many lives devastated and families without income.
- In less consequential, but quite interesting, news from Turkmenistan, the newly-imposed ban on beards is angering students.
- Central Asian textile arts are a little side passion of mine; rugs in particular. Proving that there is a blog for everything, a rug expert maintains the fascinating Turkmen Rugs blog.








Nathan - I heard something yesterday about a drone crashing in Kabul - have you seen anything about that?
Briefly on one of my moreover feeds. I think this is what you're looking for. Looks fairly tame, but kind of interesting.
Thanks. Looks like there's nothing to it, which is why you didn't mention it, I suppose.