Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-04-20

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPIC

• Bombings and shootings broke out across Uzbekistan over a period of three days, prompting fears that a new front would open in the War on Terror.

Other Topics Today Include: Much More on the Tashkent Bombings; Georgia's Parliamentary Elections; The Ajarian Thorn in Georgia's Side; I Love You Turkmenbashi!; Armenia Protests; China's Designs on Central Asia; When Congressmen Get Involved in Custody Cases; Sgt. Hook: Live From a Mountaintop in Afghanistan; Coolio Comes to Baku; and, Much More.

TERROR IN UZBEKISTAN

• The nature of the Uzbek government's control of the media, coupled with the ignorance of the Western press when it comes to Central Asia, makes it very hard to know exactly what happened and where. In the words of one reporter questions outnumber answers. For the curious and adventurous, I refer you to EurasiaNet's Uzbekistan Archive, which contains numerous stories written by locals and knowledgeable experts. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Central Asia Report has a good report on the attacks and their aftermath.

• The diplomatic fallout from the Uzbekistan bombings could be enormous. EurasiaNet argues that Uzbekistan could increasingly turn towards Russia, who is much less critical than the United States. If talk is worth much, Karimov's visit to Moscow was packed with talk of growing Russo-Uzbek cooperation.

• It should also be noted that Uzbekistan and Russia may not reall walk off into the sunset together. Following the attacks in Tashkent, there was a nasty war of words between the Uzbek and Russian media.

• Following the attacks, every major newspaper in the world seemed to have storebought analysis ready. To find the wheat among the chaff is a challenge. In my opinion, Chris Seiple's analysis is the best you'll find. For another view, see Ariel Cohen's TCS column despite my extensive problems with it.

• The Uzbek government initially blamed Hizb ut-Tahrir, a nasty but peaceful group, and there was rampant speculation in the press about who was to blame. In a letter to Centrasia.ru (in Russian & Uzbek, here's a sloppy translation), a previously unknown group calling itself "Islamic Jihad" (not any of the other groups going by that name) took responsibility. Uzbek authorities have started referring to the guilty party as Jamoat ("society") and say they have 350-400 members, a quarter of whom have been trained as militants.

• The CSM looks at why Uzbekistan's suicide bombers were mostly women.

• There are reports that, having lost their refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Tajik, Uzbek, and Chinese (I'm assuming Uyghur, actually) militants are returning home and establishing themselves in their old Tajik bases.

THE CAUCASUS

• President Saakashvili's National Movement-Democrats dominated the March 28 elections, winning about two-thirds of the vote.

• The failure of all but one of the opposition parties to pass the 7% threshhold for seats in parliament led to allegations of vote fraud on Saakashvili's part. For its part, the Saakashvili government found the vote to be so riddled with problems in Ajaria that an entirely new election was planned (and cancelled).

• Following the election, Saakashvili affirmed that restoring Georgia's territorial integrity is a top priority, a message mostly aimed at showing his resolve in the ongoing conflict with Ajaria. Strong denunciations of the nation's enemies shortly after the election indicated that bringing Ajaria back into line is one of Saakashvili's primary goals.

• Another major priority for Saakashvili is the Georgia's integration into the West, seeking closer ties with the EU and quick inclusion in NATO.

• Completing the troika of major policy goals of the Saakashvili government, Andy Young of Siberian Light brings us news from the fight against corruption in his new role as a contributor to The Argus.

• Though there has been news of some countries pulling troops out of Iraq in the wake of flare-ups in fighting, Georgia sent 159 additional soldiers, members of the 16th Mountain Battalion and graduates of the US military's Train-and-Equip Program. They will serve in Baghdad, Tikrit, and Baiji.

• The recently-dismissed (but refusing to go) general commanding the 25th Armored-Mechanized Brigade in Batumi has officially mutinied, proclaiming that Batumi, not Tbilisi, gives him orders.

• Armenia's opposition groups launched a permanent protest in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of President Robert Kocharian and giving rise to the hope that Georgia's "Rose Revolution" would blossom in Armenia.

• Blogrel, a blog maintained by a UK citizen living in Armenia, is following the situation closely and points out that the political situation is Armenia is significantly different than the one in Georgia last November. For more on this theme, see Richard Giragosian's article in RFE/RL (who also has impressive coverage).

• One glaring difference between Georgia and Armenia is that Kocharian feels confident enough to unleash the police on protesters, though it should be noted that the opposition still plans protests.

• The Agonist's Sean-Paul Kelley has a superb article on Georgia and Ajaria, where the Cold War is managing to stay alive.

• Tbilisi's tough talk towards Ajaria may be prompting a shift in the way that Russia deals with Georgia.

• Former Soviet Foreign Minister and President of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze has been offered a new job: advisor to Kofi Annan. He has accepted.

TURKESTAN

• China, seeking to meet growing energy needs and extend its regional influence, is pushing east into Central Asia. Stephen Blank has more, in a article covering China's Uyghurs and its Central Asia strategy.

• Though not a paradise by an stretch of the imagination, the fact that former fundamentalist warlords have traded fatigues for suits is definitely an achievement for Tajikistan.

• Kyrgyz merchants are protesting Chinese traders, primarily ethnic Uyghurs, selling in markets. Why? They sell at lower prices and pay their taxes.

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development announced changes to its Uzbekistan lending plans. As my co-blogger points out, the "plan" is short on specifics.

• When is a divorce and custody battle a major international issue? Drag a bunch of US Congressmen into a New Jersey case involving Gulnora Karimova, daugher of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, and you have yourself an enormous problem and a script for a very engaging soap opera.

• Uzbekistan has denied the registration of George Soros's Open Society Institute in Tashkent. Whether you love or hate Soros, OSI Uzbekistan was doing great work. (In the interest of full disclosure, I briefly worked with OSI Uzbekistan.)

• As if having a certifiably insane leader is not bad enough, Turkmenistan is flat broke. The government owes over $250 million in unpaid wages, making people wonder where the country's export earnings are going.

• The previous item really makes one wonder where Turkmenistan hopes to come up with the money to finance grandiose water projects such as the creation of a 2,000 square km lake in the middle of the desert and an artificial river in the capital.

• A draft law on the media in Kazakstan would apparently give so much control to the government that even the President's daughter's political party opposes it.

AFGHANISTAN

• Sgt. Hook, blogging from Afghan mountaintops, reports in with the news that the transformation of his tent city into a hut city is a boon to the local economy.

• Armed Pakistani tribesmen are hunting militants and their tribal protectors along the Afghan border following their failure to heed the demands of an ultimatum to surrender.

• Meanwhile, US, Pakistani, and Afghan officials agreed to work more closely together to prevent cross-border infiltration.

• With 5,000 peacekeepers providing intense security, representatives from Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, India, and Central Asian states are meeting in Kabul to help reintegrate Afghanistan in the economic life of the region.

• US officials note that this year's spring offensive by Taliban and al Qaeda fighters is the weakest yet and that enemy losses are very high while Coalition troops are escaping relatively unscathed.

• US Marines are ready to step up the fight against Taliban and al Qaeda forces.

• Hamid Karzai is calling for foreign troops to stay in Afghanistan for at least ten years.

• Speaking of security, Crisis Web looks at elections and security in Afghanistan.

• For the first time in Afghanistan's history, citizens will face an income tax. The overhaul the tax system will bring it closer to Western systems and decrease reliance on collecting customs duties. Interestingly, the only people who will pay the income tax are those making more than $200 per month. You have one guess what group of people in Afghanistan make that much...

LIGHTER FARE

• Coolio made an appearance in Baku. Yes, he of "Gangsta's Paradise" fame appropriately played a concert in Baku.

• A hilarious tribute to Saparumurat Niyazov--"Turkmenbashi"--the man who has successfully steered Turkmenistan into second place behind North Korea in the running for "it'd be funny if it wasn't true" pageant of nations. His latest advice? Chew bones for healthy teeth.