Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling. of Regnum Crucis.
TOP TOPICS
- The Chadian rebel group Movement for Democracy and Justice (MDJT) claims to be holding Amari Saifi, the second-in-command of the Algerian al-Qaeda affiliate GSPC, and that they are willing to turn him over to the US in return for unspecified concessions. According to Strateypage via Rantburg, if Saifi is being held by the Chadians there is the possibility that al-Qaeda members based in neighboring Sudan may be raising a ransom to free him. There also seems to be the fear that Saifi is working with the MDJT as part of an elaborate trap, though this would strike me as rather suicidal behavior for an otherwise obscure African rebel group to engage in ...
- The Yemeni government appears to be more or less bribing terrorists to keep trouble away from the homeland. This is more or less how the non-crazy Saudis' cash ended up in al-Qaeda's coffers and I think we've already seen how this movie ends. On the other hand, Yemen did thwart a plot to assassinate the US ambassador, so many their plan is better than it looks on the surface.
Other Topics Today Include: Iran Reports; Hezb-e-Islami in upcoming Afghan elections; 2 Taliban commanders captured; Waziristan amnesty suffers a setback; latest sectarian violence was the work of the SeS or LeJ; Hassan Hattab executed by his own lieutenants; Nigerian governor blames al-Qaeda for recent violence; Filippino authorities disrupt al-Qaeda financing; Malaysia deports Abu Jibril; al-Muqrin sez al-Qaeda's operating in Iraq; Spain busts al-Qaeda recruiters; EU counterterrorism chief notes paradox of the Continent's relationship with terrorists; Sao Tome as an alternate energy source; and Mexican UFOs turn out to be gas.
IRAN REPORTS
- Iranian parliamentary speaker Hojjatoleslam Karroubi has recently concluded a meeting with his Saudi counterpart, Saleh bin Abdullah bin Hamid, in which both nations have stressed the need for unity in order to confront the "enemies of Islam." Anybody care to take a stab at who Karroubi is referencing here?
- UN inspectors are seeing a pattern of radiation contamination that could indicate efforts to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. Hans Blix, meanwhile, is noting that it is not unreasonable to conclude that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within two years.
- Iranian journalist Hamid Golpira has some charming thoughts on the teachings of jihad.
- The SMCCDI is reporting that Iranians in the DC area are boycotting Shirin Ebadi
THE WIDER WAR
- Members of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami faction now say that they will participate in the upcoming Afghan elections.
- US troops have captured Taliban commanders Abdul Halal and Abdul Shakoor during a raid near Khakrez that killed 5 Taliban.
- Pakistan's amnesty deal for foreign militants in Waziristan appears to have suffered a setback. Wotta surprise ...
- The suicide bomber who attacked a Shi'ite mosque in Karachi last week was both a member of the Sunni sectarian group Sipah-e-Sahaba as well as a local policeman. The Daily Times has more, but cites investigators as claiming that the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi was responsible for the attack.
- While it was first reported that Nabil Sahraoui had taken control of the GSPC back in October 2003, little information was released regarding the fate of his predecessor Hassan Hattab. Now, thanks to the L'Expression newspaper, we learn that Hattab was put on trial and executed by his own lieutenants, Sahraoui and Amari Saifi among them.
- Nigerian governor Joshua Dariye is fingering al-Qaeda for involvement in the bloody sectarian violence that has rocked Nigeria's volatile Plateau State.
- Malaysia is being urged to investigate the hosting of jihadi websites on servers owned by Telekom Malaysia following the brutal decapitation of Nick Berg by Abu Musab Zarqawi. The prime minister seems to have noticed as well.
- Filippino authorities have disrupted an al-Qaeda/Abu Sayyaf financial network. The source of the money? None other than Saudi Arabia ...
- Malaysian has deported JI leader Mohammed Iqbal Abdul Rahman back to Indonesian, where he has been arrested for questioning concerning his membership in a terrorist organization.
- Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin, the top al-Qaeda leader in Saudi Arabia, is claiming that al-Qaeda is active inside Iraq and is providing assistance to the insurgents there.
- Spain has arrested 3 Algerians and a Spaniard on the suspicion of recruiting for al-Qaeda. Expatica has a lot more, noting that they were recruiting jihadis to fight in Iraq.
- EU counterterrorism chief Gijs de Vries is noting that Europe is both a target and a base for al-Qaeda.
- Bill Hobbs notes the recent discovery of oil in Sao Tome and Principe and wonders whether or not it might well serve as an alternative source of oil for the United States.
- We try to end on a lighter note if possible. The recent UFO sightings in Mexico, which attracted international media attention, now appear to have been nothing but gas. The swamp variety, no doubt ...
Hey, Dan, I thought you might be interested in this.
Today I came across this story about Dubai becoming the international hub of the diamond trade. Having known about allegations that Al Qaeda is using the diamond trade to raise and launder money, made most recently in Douglas Farah's book Blood From Stones: The Secret Financial Network of Terror, I thought this ought to raise a few eyebrows.
Then I found this from December:Know anything about this?
Oh, regarding Sao Tome and Principe, the US is already building or has built a military base there. There was a great article about it in The New Yorker a while back, but unfortunately, it's not online. We also maintain a presence in nearby Equitorial Guinea, although that's been, um, turbulent recently. There's an interesting battle going on between Nigeria, EG, and ST&P over the oil rights.
One other note - the US military commander in Afghanistan, Lt Gen David Barno, stressed in a talk at CSIS last week that the Pakistani military's forays into the tribal areas are unprecedented in its history. He said that this was a big step for Pakistan that could destabilize the country, and as such, the US was willing to be patient. It seems that Barno's restructuring of the US military presence there towards a more village-oriented model has made this possible in some respects, as we've been able to garner some goodwill on the Afghan side of the border, thus staving off some sort of mass uprising. Basically, it sounds like the tribal leaders are betting on the strong horse, a familiar pattern in Afghanistan's history. I liked Barno a lot, so I recommend watching his talk on CSPAN.
OK, one more comment on this Iran/Saudi Arabia thing.
Given that Wahhabis believe that Shi'ites are basically Jews and devils and so forth, it seems like we may be stuck in a bind here.
Iran and Saudi Arabia joining forces against us would be a bad thing. But driving a wedge between them could provoke Sunni/Shi'ite violence across the Arab World. This only raises the importance of Sistani and his followers, in my view. It seems like he is one who could potentially find a third way.
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I don't know anything about the FBI investigation in specific, but I do know that European (read: French) intelligence launched a massive investigation into al-Qaeda financing regarding West African diamonds after 9/11 and concluded that the former Taylor government in Liberia as well as the current government of Burkina Faso were in cahoots with al-Qaeda in their efforts to evade international sanctions against their assets by transferring cash into diamonds. According to the report, Al-Qaeda even bought out the entire West African diamond market from spring to summer of 2001 so that they would have enough of a slush fund to survive the international efforts to freeze their assets.
As far as Hezbollah not being involved in the diamonds, if somebody believes that then I'd sure like to know what they're smoking. There's a large Lebanese business community in West Africa and I've read Israeli allegations that Hezbollah was active there dating back at least to 1998. Back before Qadaffi decided to reform himself, Hezbollah's Iranian masters had very good relationships with the Libyan-backed Sierra Leone RUF, which actually controls most of these diamond mines in question.
As far as the US troop activity on the Afghan side of the border are concerned, most of the Pashtun tribesmen originally joined Mullah Omar because he offered an alternative to the chaotic infighting of the 1990s and then stayed at least tacitly aligned with him because they were afraid of the largely Tajik/Uzbek Northern Alliance taking out their wrath on them. The whole idea of stationing US troops in the villages, forming ties to the tribal leaders, ect, is going to go a long way towards convincing the Pashtuns that we aren't out to screw them.
With regard to the apparent Saudi/Iranian alliance, I agree that it raises the importance of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, whom the US appears to have formed an accomodation with in order to go after Sadr in An Najaf. Sistani's rejection of velayet-e-faqih is a major boon to us in this respect, because he can create a counter-balance to Khomeinism within the larger Shi'ite community. That's good for us in the long run, but we still need to eliminate or at least lessen the Wahhabi poison flowing out of the Magic Kingdom.
Re: Mexico UFOs - I ain't never seen gas do that before.