Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling. of Regnum Crucis.
TOP TOPICS
- Fresh from their victory in Spain, al-Qaeda operatives appear to be planning a major attack on US targets at some point between the holding of the Democratic political convention in Boston and October. I'd say that most of what I wrote back during the Holiday Terror Alert last Christmas still pretty much holds up.
- Abu Musab Zarqawi is now being identified by US officials as the new al-Qaeda operations chief. As Fred Pruitt and I noted over on Rantburg, it appears as though the position of al-Qaeda operations chief has now been split between Saif al-Adel (strategic) and Abu Musab Zarqawi (tactical). On an even more ominous note, it would seem that Zarqawi may already have a potential successor in the works, Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, a Syrian Afghan training camp commander who was lasted reported as being in
al-Qaeda HQIran.
Other Topics Today Include: Iran Reports; Mullah Omar's bodyguards arrested; al-Qaeda recruiters tied back to Hamburg cell; Pakistani lashkar finished in Azam Warsak; Karachi is terror central in Pakistan; Abu Sayyaf leader captured; CIA tipped off Turks to NATO summit plot; more violence in southern Thailand; Morocco and Tunisia take aim at Islamism; more festivities in Saudi Arabia; Kenyan police thwart plot against Israeli embassy; fighting between Islamist and government forces in Yemen; major attack in Kashmir; and an all new kind of robot dance.
IRAN REPORTS
- Roya Johnson writes that the run-up to the annual crackdown on anti-regime protesters inside Iran is in full swing. No doubt all of the usual Arab thugs have been imported to take part.
- Former Iranian president
and shadowy puppetmasterHashemi Rafsanjani is lashing out at the US over the situation in Iraq. He also believes the US created al-Qaeda in order to counter Khomeinism.
- An Iranian national has been detained in connection with the discovery of a large arsenal in Marseille, France. It is entirely possible that he is a member of the formerly Iraqi-backed Mujahideen-e-Khalq, which was pretty well dismantled by French authorities last year.
THE WIDER WAR
- Afghan police have arrested 2 of Mullah Omar's bodyguards near Kandahar.
- Spanish Algerians recruiting European Muslims to fight for al-Qaeda in Iraq have been tied to Zarqawi as well as to the Hamburg cell that served as the staging ground for launching the 9/11 attacks.
- The Pakistani lashkar hunt is over in Azam Warsak, which had been one of the main centers of resistance during the Waziristan Operation.
- A member of the Harakat ul-Mujahideen al-Aalmi has been arrested in Karachi. This comes as Kamran, another HuMA leader is arrested. A German Muslim is also among the detained. This would tend to support the position that Karachi is the new terror central inside of Pakistan these days.
- Abu Sayyaf leader Usman Lijal has been captured in the Philippines. Lijal, who may also be a MILF leader, had a chemical weapons guide on him at the time of his arrest.
- The Turkish press is reporting that the CIA tipped off Turkish authorities to the al-Qaeda threat to the upcoming NATO summit.
- Gunmen have killed 4 in the latest round of violence in southern Thailand. They also want to negotiate with the US government.
- King Mohammed of Morocco is taking swift action against Islamism, declaring its adherents, "Unbalanced villains ... with no homeland or religion."
- Morocco isn't alone either - Tunisia is also stepping up its anti-terrorism efforts.
- 4 terrorists and 1 police officer are dead in the latest gunbattle in Saudi Arabia.
- Kenyan police preparing to deport 3, including an Australian national, over an alleged plot against the Israeli embassy in Nairobi.
- The Los Angeles Times has some more on Lionel Dumont's friendly visit to Japan.
- A clash between Islamists and government forces in Yemen have left 2 injured.
- A major attack in Kashmir by the Hizb ul-Mujahideen has left 26 Indian soldiers dead.
- We try to end on a lighter note if possible. It is with great pleasure that I announce the creation of the first kicking and dancing robot.
Regarding an al Qaeda "October Surprise" -
Which will help the incumbents more? A successful high-profile attack within US borders or a thwarted high-profile attack?
You might want to check out this link (scroll down) recapping evidence that before the war Bush passed up several opportunities to get Zarqawi, Nick Berg's alleged executioner and Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist, perhaps fearing it might undermine his case for invasion.
A major terror attack on the US before the election would be a big mistake for the Islamofascists.
Seeking to repeat Madrid, they might hope to mobilize resistance to the WOT and bring to power a more malleable administration.
But Spain's involvement in Iraq was already unpopular, and Aznar's blaming the Basques tipped the scales against him.
I don't think that will work in the US. A major terror attack in the US would confirm that we are indeed at war and increase support for Bush.
I think that the Islamofascists best shot is to concentrate on actions in Iraq. With the help of the collaborationist US media, they can convince the public that the war is an unwinnable mess and turn them against the war and against Bush.
To combat that, we must stay on track with a credible handover to the Iraqis. Bush's speeches leading up to the handover may get out the message that the mainline press buries about our successes, like the pacification of Fallujah and the patient strangulation of Sadr.
Someone asked once how we would know if another Dark Ages was imminent. Our failure to stem the tide of either leftist nihilism or Islamofascism would fit that description in my view.
"A major terror attack on the US before the election would be a big mistake for the Islamofascists.... A major terror attack in the US would confirm that we are indeed at war and increase support for Bush."
Why would increased support for Bush be bad for the Islamofascists? There might be short-term revulsion, but the way Bush is handling things has been pretty good for them.
International support for the US is lower than it's been in years, and the Iraq situation has been a powerful recruiting tool.
Kicking and dancing? Would this be part of the preparation for the next RoboCup competition? At least FIFA won't let them take off their shirts after a goal.
For links to news, views, politics, and government, bookmark All Things Political. For my comments and rants on the days events, check out my Blog.
The comment immediately prior to mine (12:11am) makes a strong case for frequent updates of the famed MT Blacklist.
I hope the WoC administrator has it in his heart to honor that eloquent plea.
Hmm. Zarqawi the new AQ bad guy. Whoda thunk it?
The first commenter above wondered whether a successful high-profile attack within US borders would be more helpful to "incumbents" than a thwarted attack.
Interesting. But it might be more relevant to examine the following questions:
> 1. Do top terrorist leaders have a preference as to who wins in November? and
> 2. Would a successful pre-election attack be more likely to help Bush win, or Kerry?
I suggest that a dedicated Islamic terrorist doesn't much care who's elected president in November. After all, their beef is with our entire way of life, which in their terms is debauched, depraved and unrighteous.
With that said, it's clear that DIT's regard the current war as a long-term one. Historically, leaders of such long-term wars are willing to make short-term sacrifices for long-term benefits.
Since Kerry is clearly inclined to appease, to coo soothingly, to rationalize attacks on us so as not to have to take military action, I would think DIT strategists would be inclined to forego direct attacks in the U.S. between now and the election in hopes of a Kerry win. Then give him 4 years to cut intel, cut the military and make it more difficult for the CIA to share information with the FBI, as Jamie Gorelick did under Clinton, and clearly at Clinton's direction.
I'd be using those 4 years to replenish my sleeper assets in the U.S., so that when we finally decided to pull the trigger we'd have the ability to hit a dozen cities at once.
But then I'm just some guy...
Does seem like 'political correctness' has trumped the war on terror. Ethnic profiling is a no-no despite it making eminent sense in spotting terrorist probables. I'm not American, neither white nor black (brown, let's say) and I sure wouldn't mind the inconvenience of airline frisking and more-checks and questions than usual, or electronic surveillence or stuff like that coz hey, I got nothing to hide. The civil rightists are asking for trouble by tying down security agencies in some misplaced fit of excessive liberalism.
May Freedom trump islamofascism! I slam islam.