Robi's S. Asia Briefing: 2004-06-02

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn

TOP TOPIC

• Karachi is starting to seem like Baghdad with four major bombings in less than two weeks, assassinations, and major riots. The US recently put out warnings, saying there would most likely be more attacks and it seems like Al Queda is behind the bombings trying to create instability in Karachi it can exploit. No matter who is to blame Karachi is a powder keg that needs very little to ignite.

Other Topics Today Include: Saudi bombings send ripples through Asia; India post-election: democracy abhors inequity; Pakistan's assassination plots; Pakistan's chickens come home to roost; Nuclear proliferation reports; India & Israel: shifting alliances; Bangladesh - Islamic extremism and internal woes.

SAUDI BOMBINGS SEND RIPPLES THROUGH S. ASIA

• This week ends attack on foreign nationals by terrorists in Khobar Saudi Arabia. While the terrorists claimed they where only looking to attack American and Westerners, a significant number of the people killed or injured in the attacks where from South Asia. Authorities claim that Indians where not targets of the terrorists but this contradicts the terrorists themselves. It is also being alleged that the Saudis cut a deal with the kidnappers letting three of the four terrorists escape despite being fully surrounded. The Belmont Club has some great thoughts on this.

• The US, Britain, and other countries are either actively moving their citizens out of Saudi Arabia which has caused the Saudis, who are dependant on foreigners to do all the work of extracting oil, to frantically try to convince everyone that everything is under control.

• Many Asians are angry and deeply concerned about the security situation in Saudi Arabia yet unlike western countries, the currency provided by out-sourcing and contracts to Saudi Arabia are keeping them from actively pulling their citizens from Saudi Arabia.

INDIA: DEMOCRACY ABHORS INEQUITY

• After India’s mega-elections, Dr Manmohan Singh of India’s Congress Party became India’s new Prime Minister after an eleventh hour ‘renunciation by party leader Sonia Gandhi. Dr Manmohan Singh is the father of India’s economic reform program and is widely respected for his personal integrity and progressive intentions as is P Chidambaram who was appointed Finance Minister.

• The foreign policy team consists of Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and National Security Advisor J N Dixit. The new government has signaled that it will continue to pursue closer relations with the United States and Israel, albeit with less vocal enthusiasm.

• India’s democratically elected Communists have emerged as an important voice in parliament and are already exerting a braking effect on the government. The Communists oppose privatization, labor market reforms and better relations with America and Israel.

• The new government has also indicated its resolve to repeal the prevention of terrorism act (POTA), an anti-terror law introduced by the previous government. This law is similar to the US Patriot Act and similar anti-terror legislation introduced in Britain.

• Jihadi terrorists have already scaled up attacks in Indian Kashmir. Further acts of terrorism will challenge the government’s intention to repeal POTA.

• The new government has signaled that it intends to continue the process of bilateral dialogue with Pakistan, under the auspices of the Simla Agreement of 1972 – which Pakistan signed after its defeat in the third India-Pakistan war. Pakistan welcomed India’s decision to continue peace talks but rejected the Simla Agreement framework. For good measure, Pakistan tested its nuclear capable Ghauri (Hatf V) ballistic missile yet again.

PAKISTAN: CHICKENS COME HOME

• General Musharraf announced that army and air-force personnel brainwashed by al Qaeda were involved in attempts to assassinate him last December.

• The mastermind of the attack, Amjad Hussain Farooqi was a member of the Jaish-e-Mohammad. Farooqi was involved in the 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight to Kandahar, where the passengers were set free in return from the release of Masood Azhar and Omar Saeed Sheikh from Indian jails. Farooqi was also an alleged mastermind of the kidnapping and killing of Daniel Pearl in 2002. Farooqi had close links with Pakistani intelligence and his involvement - and that of military personnel - suggests that Musharraf does face a serious threat from within the military establishment.

• Sectarian violence took a serious turn this month when an extremist Sunni policeman blew himself up in a Shia mosque in Karachi killing 18 worshippers.

• Given that sectarian killers almost never get apprehended or punished in Pakistan, the attack caused Shia extremists to respond in kind. Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, a 'Saruman'-like figure in international jihadi circles was killed by unknown gunmen. Shamzai was the head of the Banuri madrassa near Karachi and was an active and strong supporter of al Qaeda and the Taliban.

• The hunt for al Qaeda in Waziristan is now turning into a farce - the Pakistani army and tribal militia continue to set and postpone deadlines for the surrender of foreign militants, but with little success in capturing any al Qaeda figures.

• The Commonwealth agreed to re-admit Pakistan into its fold on condition that Musharraf quit as army chief by end of the year. Both Britain and India backed Pakistan's re-admission into this grouping of countries of the erstwhile British Empire. Musharraf rejected the Commonwealth's conditions stating that 'the Commonwealth must be proud to have a country like Pakistan as a member'. The ASEAN Regional Forum has also decided to admit Pakistan as a member after India dropped its objections.

• General Musharraf wrote an op-ed piece in the Washington Post outlining his strategy of 'enlightened moderation' which envisions the Muslim world eschewing terrorism in return for justice, as well as reform within the Organisation of Islamic States. As this week's events in his own country show, Musharraf's own regime is far away from enlightenment, moderation and justice.

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

• Arguably one of the most unreported stories of the year has been Dr Khan and his responsibility for a nuclear black market which has been connected to nuclear weapons programs in Iran, Syria, Libya, as well as Iraq!

• The ramifications of this story seem to not be apparent to the media although Belmont Club gets it.

• Since February there has been little new information on Dr Khans confession and information implicating various countries such as North Korea, Pakistan, China, as well as many others in the proliferation of Nuclear weapons but a lot has been happening. Buhary Syed Abu Tahirwas recently arrested in connection with helping supply training as well as components to Libya's nuclear weapon program.

• Not too surprisingly, Malaysia wont let US officials question Tahir who is linked to Malaysia's ex prime minister's son.

• This month Libya reported an unexpected shipment of L-2 centrifuges. These items seem to have come by way of Turkey. US officials have stated that Libya has informed the US they had ordered more parts and some are likely to show up.

• John Kerry recently spoke about his major security focus if elected president would be to keep terrorists from gaining nuclear weapons. In his speech he seems to focus on states such as Iran, North Korea, and safe guarding weapon stockpiles such as Russia's and only make one note in passing about Khan nuclear weapons black market which is connected to a majority of the rogue states including Iraq's nuclear weapons plan. While he criticizes the current administrations focus on Iraq he makes no mention that the current administrations pressure on Libya and Pakistan exposed Khan's black market in the first place. There is lots of room to criticize the current administration's efforts on controlling nuclear proliferation, yet he seems to miss the opportunity in not drawing attention to how Dr Khan is being handled.

• As of a week ago Dr AQ Khan who is behind possibly the largest proliferation of nuclear weapons technology as well as having met with and helped Osama Bin Laden is officially free to travel again.

BANGLADESH: ISLAMIC EXTREMISM UNCHECKED

• Bangla Bhai - Pakistan's very own Mulla Omar - and his Taliban like organization have increased their acts of violence. Despite the government's resolve (or lack thereof), Bangla Bhai and his supporters continue to elude arrest.

• Sectarian tensions are worsening in Bangladesh - protests against Ahmadiyyas (an Islamic sect accused of apostasy by fundamentalists) have turned violent.

• Even the new British High Commissioner was hurt when a mosque where he was praying was attacked.

THE INDIAN-ISRAELI-US ALLIANCE

• The new Indian government has been quick to criticize Israel which has led some to predict a shift in relations between the two countries as well as India's relationship with the US.

• India has intonated that there will be little change though.

• India and Israel have in the last few years grown closer and closer and not only because of common defense and security issues. India is an extremely popular country for Israelis as well as a powerful economic and scientific ally.

• India has noted the progress and lessons learned by Israel in the erection of fences between Israel and Palestinian areas. India has started on a second fence besides the one along the Pakistani border and is now erecting one along the Bangladesh border. It is possible though that the new government which has expressed stronger support for the views of Palestinians may review its security fence projects - but not likely.