Over the last several days, a multi-national initiative by several European nations has succeeded in disrupting al-Qaeda's infrastructure in no less than 3 separate nations. While most of this is directly related to the renewed European anti-terrorism drive following the tragic events of 3/11, it has also succeeded in uncovering what appears to be, at least on the surface, a definite threat to the United States.
Introduction
Most of the relevant background information on the identity of the group that carried out the Madrid bombings, the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (Salafi Jihad), can be found in my earlier special analysis written in the aftermath of 3/11. Little has changed since, with the exception of two new faces stepping to the fore. In addition to Jamal Zougam, Amer Azizi and Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed have also emerged as key conspirators in the Madrid bombings. I would probably say that Azizi is likely to be ahead of Ahmed in the al-Qaeda pecking order, given his role in 9/11 and apparent relocation to Iran. Azizi is described as a top lieutenant to Abu Musab Zarqawi, which given his role in 9/11 would tend to present a great many problems for anyone who wants to argue that Zarqawi isn't an al-Qaeda leader. After all, he's the new al-Qaeda operations chief, apparently picking up where 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed left off.
Ahmed, however, remained in Europe, likely taking up the role of leader of the European al-Qaeda network now that Abderrazak al-Mahjoub has been arrested. He's a former explosives expert for the Egyptian army and served as an instructor at an al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan. This clearly identifies him as a major player right from the start because in addition to the Muslim Brotherhood, many of the Islamists who made up the core of Gamaa al-Islamiyyah and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (two key groups that would eventually merge with bin Laden's own to form al-Qaeda) recruited members of their military wings from disgruntled members of the Egyptian military who were angry over first Anwar Sadat and later Hosni Mubarak for their decision to support peace with Israel. Al-Qaeda military commander Saif al-Adel, for example, was formerly an Egyptian special forces colonel trained by the Soviet Bloc.
Ahmed's arrest and its implications
Ahmed was arrested on June 8 as part of a multi-national anti-terrorism sweep by European law enforcement, which I'll get to in a moment. In addition to his probable status as a key leader within the European al-Qaeda network, Ahmed also worshipped at the Finsbury Park Mosque under the notorious Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Masri and might I say that at this point one might ask how many members of that mosque's congregation haven't been charged with some kind of terrorism-related offenses.
However, the most valuable piece of information that has come out of accounts of how Ahmed was arrested is that Italian authorities had his phone lines tapped and as such were able to record his conversations with fellow al-Qaeda members all across Europe. The last set of wiretaps of this nature were made public back in December and reveal a very frightening picture of the al-Qaeda network in Europe to the extent that it would seem to resemble something out of the fictional HYDRA rather than a real-life organization. Given the goldmine of information that was recovered from the Milan wiretaps, it is entirely likely that Italian authorities have stumbled upon an equally valuable treasure trove, especially given Ahmed's apparent knowledge of cells inside the United States.
The wider context
The information that Italian police were able to learn from the wiretaps enabled them to launch a major anti-terrorism drive that led to the arrest of 17 suspected al-Qaeda members in Italy and Belgium. According to press reports, they were planning to target NATO headquarters, the EU parliament, and the Paris metro.
It is indeed the latter target that is particularly disturbing because according to the Guardian story (which the French are now denying for whatever it's worth) at the very least strongly implies that if al-Qaeda was planning an attack on France the ultimate goal was to influence the European elections. Now I don't know enough about French or European politics to understand what might have been planned in this regard, but my hope is that one of our more enlightened (éclairé?) readers might be able to assist me in this regard. Within the context of al-Qaeda's broader strategy, I would cite this as evidence that the organization's current obsession with Iraq has not prevented it from taking action against its other adversaries, such as France. Carrying out a Madrid-level attack inside of France would certainly bolster al-Qaeda's support among the radicalized Muslim immigrant populations (at least until the deportations started) as well as in nations like Algeria where the network's affiliates are currently engaged in one of the bloodiest insurgencies since the end of the Cold War, for example.
Chemical threat to the US?
Most ominously, according to the wiretaps, is that Ahmed apparently referenced a planned chemical attack on the United States to be carried out by a woman. That description jives just a little too much with that of Aafia Siddiqui for my particular liking.
Another possibility exists, however. In Chechnya, al-Qaeda's affiliate Riyadus Salikhin has made use of the widows of dead Chechen al-Qaeda fighters to serve as suicide bombers in a number of mass casualty terrorist attacks. Given that there appear to be a number of "serving" American members of al-Qaeda, the possibility of such a tactic being employed here would seem something to be wary of. For those interested in a quick refresher on al-Qaeda's WMD capabilities, I would tend to recommend the primer I wrote up on Project al-Zabadi.
Military or law enforcement?
There has been a fair amount of discussion over the last several months over whether the law enforcement or military method of fighting terrorism is to be preferred. The short answer is that both can be very effective in certain situations, but that over-reliance on one form or another is a recipe for disaster. In this particular instance, the law enforcement approach appears to have worked out quite well for the European authorities, but it is perhaps best to remember that following the events of the Munich Massacre and their own struggles with leftist and separatist terrorism during the 1970s and 1980s, most European governments maintain specialized anti-terrorism units that unfortunately do not yet have a US equivalent, though there is some suspicion that the report of the 9/11 commission will recommend the creation of something akin to a US branch of the British MI5. As can be seen from this instance, both the professionalism and the skill displayed by these units is clearly not in doubt.
It's hard to keep a clear list of the Bad Guys atop al Qaeda's organization chart, which one suspects is hardly accidental. One way to split them up might be:
--Shadowy operatives known only by their alibis, grainy surveillance photos, etc.
--People integrated into society who are known to authorities, but whose documented activities aren't grave enough to warrant detention on criminal charges.
--People whose identities are known (fingerprints, DNA, prison records, birth name, etc.) and who would be detained, but whose whereabouts are unknown.
(Of course, this is all by the terrorism-as-criminal-activity model. No Western society seems to have made much progress in reconciling civil rights with the competing war-on-terror paradigm. It's hard to see a 'good' resolution of the Padilla and Hamdi cases.)
Given Zarqawi's Jordanian prison record, the US and Europeans must have a good idea of his identity and appearance. It's surprising that reports seem to indicate the he seems to have few difficulties moving among Iraq, Iran, and Jordan, and communicating even more widely.
Dan: What you said here is extemely important:
Now I don't know enough about French or European politics to understand what might have been planned in this regard, but my hope is that one of our more enlightened (éclairé?) readers might be able to assist me in this regard.
Hitting France might shatter the illusion that Old Europe is safe so long as they keep their heads down.
Within the French political spectrum, both the UMP and the Socialists are very anti-US/Israel and pro-Arab. I often wonder which party a Zionist capitalist would vote for, but I haven't worked it out.