As you're all aware, sovereignty was formally handed over to the interim Iraqi government yesterday, a couple days ahead of schedule (But do you know that a blogger scooped CNN et. al?).
So, what are the Iraqi bloggers saying about all this?
- Omar at Iraq the Model is overjoyed in Go Iraq Go. "Our hope and our goal is to see the day when we can elect our representatives freely and more important is to be aware that the process is moving as we wish and there will be no room for those who dream of bringing back the past."
- "Sam" at Hammorabi notes that the handover's timing didn't just mess up the terrorists. It also surprised Al-Jazeera and the Arab media, who had an attack or two of their own planned.
- Alaa reminds us of a popular Arabic phrase in That Which Has Benefit for the People. "This day, this modest ceremony, no elaborate celebrations, no fanfare; yet surely this is a "Mother of Days" for Iraq, and history will remember this day."
- Ays of Iraq at a Glance was worried about the 30th. It will be fun to see what he thinks once he starts blogging again from Basra. Meanwhile, his blog's motto says it all.
- Sarmad Zangna at Road of a Nation is pleased, and has some thank-yous. None for Mr. Zarqawi, though: "I don’t believe that those man are human ,or related to any kind of humanity ,they don’t know any thing ,just killing and killing..." We noticed that too.
- Kurdo's World is less than happy, but then the Kurds are less than happy these days. Ironically, moving the USA aside means the new government is going to have to start paying more attention to what the Kurds want.
- Fellow Kurd and new blogger Karda of Land of the Karda isn't so sure. "In the Western world people are represented by political parties. It’s very simple. If these political parties are not able to do what they have promised to their members, then they will get lesser votes for the next election. Weirdly, things go very different in ME."
- Firas Georges has some thoughts from Baghdad, as he contemplates the house he's building. I suspect a lot of people feel this way.
- O at Iraqi spirit is A bit weary. Of the pro-American camp in the Arab world, and of the anti American camp as well. "To both camps.... Leave us alone...you never helped Iraq, you just sat there and watched while Iraqis were being abused/killed and stripped of their humanity whether under Saddam or the present regime. It is our problem and we will sort it out. LONG LIVE IRAQ" That was back in May. Hopefully, a year or 2 from now O will still be happy he wished for that. I love his blog's motto.
- Fayrouz may be "Live from Dallas", but she points us toward A Star from Mosul, written by 16 year old Najma Abdullah as she describes her school life and hopes for the future. You go, girl!
- Daniel Drezner has some "man in the street" reactions from Baghdad, via the Boston Globe.
I always like to end on a lighter note, so here's a joke from Bahir J at Baghdadee. It seemed entirely appropriate now that Iraqis get to deal with their own political leeches:
"A wealthy person decided to gift one of the politicians a flashy car. The politician rejected the offer fearing that it might be considered as a bribe. To make it looks OK, the wealthy offered the car for only $20. The politician agreed to take two cars instead of one!!!!"
Come to think of it, that joke would work here in Canada too.
Joe's Take On All This
Things aren't even close to over in Iraq, but the Iraqis have their country back now and this was a good move. The advanced date? A brilliant fake-out, all the more brilliant for how tightly the secret was held. Suddenly, the stage has been jerked out from under all those long-planned terrorist attacks, and any bombs going off June 30th risk a serious backlash against their perpetrators. Hammorabi's observations re: the effect on al-Jazeera et. al. are also worth a look.
Still, a note of caution: there are rocky times ahead. An Iraqi government may know a few things the Americans do not, but like all governments it will screw up. Some lessons the Americans absorbed the hard way will need to be re-learned, and ike Bahir J, I doubt that the long history of corruption in Arab (and socialist) political cultures has vanished overnight.
All this will vex American commanders on the ground, even as the handover changes other dynamics on the ground in favour of a positive long-term outcome.
Inconsistency will also plague allied commanders and Iraqis alike. With Iraq gearing up for January 2005 elections, expect a lot of jockeying as the celebrations die down and the usual political "hangover" begins. It will look confusing and chaotic, and that will be a good thing - because Iraqi politics is exactly where all their real confusion and post-Saddam sort-outs need to be channeled. It will not be pretty, but it is necessary.
Which brings us to the trillion-dollar question: How will it all end?
That's the question everyone's asking, and there's only one honest answer: nobody really knows. Not Bush, not Kerry, not Chirac, and not Allawi. Not me, and not my Iraqi blogging counterparts. Not even Zarqawi. Nobody. The world gives us bets, and odds. Not certainties.
Still, reading the Iraqi bloggers will tell you this: it's one hell of a story. Many Americans and Iraqis and British and Poles and others are living in it. Some are dying, and more will follow. Some of us can only watch from afar, and honour those who sacrifice for something better, and support efforts like Operation Give or Spirit of America.
Will it be enough?
Well, that depends on what "enough" means to you. America could never promise Iraqis paradise. It was good enough to promise them a chance, and it seems to be delivering on that promise. Now it's up to Iraqis to seize that chance; and up to us all, in America and beyond, to hold out our hands and offer them the help they need.
I wish my Iraqi counterparts very best of luck - and today, I'm happy to celebrate with them again. We know that there will more mourning in our future, and more celebrations. We know, too, what we value. Soon, we'll all learn what we're really determined to do, in order to make Iraq's next chapters better than its last ones.
Perhaps we will fail, at the end of all things. Or perhaps it will be enough. Perhaps some of their hopes, and ours, can still become real in an imperfect world. In the end, however, it's not about what one thinks or believes - it's what one does that will help tell the story.
What will you DO?
"Many a mile to freedom, many a smile to tell
Ask my bluebird to sing you, from the heart of a wishing well
Call all my reindeer to graze here, call all my grain to grow
Then together we flow like the river
Then together we melt like the snow......A few more miles to go
Miles to freedom."
- Stevie Winwood, "Many a Mile to Freedom"
I dont' see how any. of this can change the fact that, the Iraqw ar was wrong.
No, you wouldn't, would you.
So, now we are entering the puppet-government phase of the operation.
I expect this to bring up the usual problem with puppet governments: who does the Iraqi government work for, the Iraqi population or the USG? (Answer: the Iraqi government works to further its own power, just like all governments.) What happens when the desires of the Iraqi population conflict with the wishes of the USG? More accurately, what happens if the Iraqi government acts contrary to the interest groups who have purchased the USG?
Usually the USG addresses this problem by installing a corrupt dictatorship. The dictator then proceeds to butcher locals who act in opposition to USG power interests, for which he is rewarded with the right to murder anyone who interferes with his local authority.
This won't work in Iraq -- way too much media coverage. If Saddam 2.0 comes to power, things will look bad. The puppet government needs to have at least the appearance of accountability to the locals. But what happens if the locals get tired of USG basing and resource extraction?
The fundamental problem is that the USG still holds most of the power, but Iraqis do not vote in our elections. Hence, an imbalance in accountability seems inevitable.
So we would do better simply to annex them then, is that what you're saying?
If the locals get tired, they will formally ask the USA to leave. And having boxed itself firmly into a corner, the USA will.
Full elections are still on for January 2005, apparently. Meanwhile, there are rocky times ahead. An Iraqi government may know a few things the Americans do not, but like all governments it will screw up. And some lessons the Americans absorbed the hard way will need to be re-learned. And I doubt that the long history of corruption in Arab political culture has vanished. All this will vex American commanders on the ground, even as this move changes some other dynamics in favour of a positive result.
It's one hell of a story, and many Americans and Iraqis and British and Poles and others are living in it - and nobody knows how it will end. But America could never promise Iraqis paradise. It was good enough to promise them a chance, and it appears to be delivering on that.
Today, I'm happy to cheer along with the Iraqi bloggers.
T.J.Madison,
"The fundamental problem is that the USG still holds most of the power..."
Since you've concluded that the Iraqi government is a puppet regime, you won't mind if we ask for your evidence of same. Please outline your legal-political analysis of the present situation justifying this assertion. Include reference to US or Iraqi legal codes, statutes and regulations, formal treaties or alliances, informal arrangements (evidenced by relevant verbal or written agreements) detailing the legislative, economic, political and military subservience of Iraqi authorities to US officials.
Pretend your audience disputes most of what you've said, and that you must, in order to intellectually engage other individuals, make an argument.
Yup. Let the doomsdayers and compulsive moralists on the left decry everything they see, fact remains Iraq and the muslim middle east may have one golden chance towards becoming another Turkey - (relatively) free, open, capitalist and progressive.
Whatever the war's original purpose, it promises to lead to a possibly better future for the region. Lets hail a good development when we see one.
Yup. Let the doomsdayers and compulsive moralists on the left decry everything they see, fact remains Iraq and the muslim middle east may have one golden chance towards becoming another Turkey - (relatively) free, open, capitalist and progressive.
Whatever the war's original purpose, it promises to lead to a possibly better future for the region. Lets hail a good development when we see one.
>>So we would do better simply to annex them then, is that what you're saying?
This might not be something to exclude casually. Few remember how close Japan came to becoming a US state.
We should remember that although US forces do commit atrocities, US puppets commit Really Big atrocities. At Abu Ghariab a few dozen people got worked over, maybe 2 or 3 died. Suharto murdered over a million people on our dime.
With the annexation of Iraq and granting of US citizenship would come democratic accountability, for whatever that's worth. USG forces, USG contractors, and Iraqis would presumably operate under a unified legal framework, leading to increased justice and less risk of impunity for US forces.
The annexation issue comes up with Israel as well. Many of my friends half-jokingly refer to Israel as the 51st state. Indeed, if it were a US state life there would likely improve dramatically. Israel would likely cease to be a racist theocracy, and official discrimination against Israeli Arabs would come to a grinding halt.
Israeli security would likely improve, as well. Few recall that there is no formal alliance between the US and Israel. But as part of the US, (or even a formal ally), Israel could have the Big Red One stationed there. And that would be that.
>>Since you've concluded that the Iraqi government is a puppet regime, you won't mind if we ask for your evidence of same.
What percentage of the military power in Iraq will be under direct USG command? Where will the funding for the new Iraqi government come from? Who provides the security for the new politicians?
Right.
>>If the locals get tired, they will formally ask the USA to leave. And having boxed itself firmly into a corner, the USA will.
If the Iraqi government has been bought and paid for, it will never ask the USG to leave, no matter what the general population wants. That's why its called a "puppet" government. Hence the accountability problem.
>>Yup. Let the doomsdayers and compulsive moralists on the left decry everything they see, fact remains Iraq and the muslim middle east may have one golden chance towards becoming another Turkey - (relatively) free, open, capitalist and progressive.
I'm sure the 30,000 Kurds killed in Turkey in the 90s using US-supplied munitions might have something to say about that.
And who said anything about being on the Left? I have no patience for the socialists, the UN, etc. I'm about as pro-capitalism, pro-liberty as you can get.
Joe, a nitpick:
Fayrouz is a she, not a he.
I'm sure the 30,000 Kurds killed in Turkey in the 90s using US-supplied munitions might have something to say about that.
Maybe you should take that up with Abdullah Occalan and the PKK, seeing how they were actually responsible for most of that nastiness along with their Syrian backers. There is a reason that Kurds fled from Iraq to Turkey rather than vice versa, or why the PUK has such a chummy relationship with Ankara.
I would also submit that formal US annexation of Iraq (or Israel, for that matter ...) would result in far more bloodshed than anything the occupation has been to date.
Fayrouz means "turquoise" doesn't it?
T.J.Madison
"What percentage of the military power in Iraq will be under direct USG command? Where will the funding for the new Iraqi government come from? Who provides the security for the new politicians?"
These are questions, rather than arguments. I'm sure you believe they are significant, but you'll probably have to draw out their significance more clearly for those of us who are not telepathic.
T. J. Madison:
Is the German government a puppet regime? What percentage of the military power in Germany is under direct USG control?
Lurker,
Thanks. Corrected - and apologies to Fayrouz.
Doubtless, now that Iraq is back in Iraqi hands, and we're about to turn Saddam over to them, they will rejoice in his coming and appoint him Lord and Master for Life, and get back to the fine and prosperous times they had over the past 10 years.
Which is what you complainers seem to be so all-fired anxious for.
T.J. Madison
To piggyback off Dave Schulers question, are the Japanese, Dutch, Norwegian, spanish, french (yes we have American GI's in cowardly spain and france), Italian, Danish, Icelandic, etc goverments all puppet regimes?
Theresa, MSgt, USAF
You know, a lot of these Iraqi bloggers have really hung tough. Good people. Any Spirit of America folks lurking around, get that Mosul girl some help with her school! Looks terrible.
Man, oh man. I just cruised around the Kurdish blogs. We better not sell those people out.
PS, they aren't actually using that flag. In one of the photos of Allawi today, I saw the old one.
Praktike is right -- the spiffy new Iraqi flag has been rejected. See, e.g., here and here.
Sirs,
I wonder why T. J. Madison is pushing the terrorists' agenda; perhaps because it is also the leftists' agenda??
T.J. is neither a leftist nor a terrorist... but given his language, one could be forgiven for thinking he was some kind of Marxist Workers Party representative.
So can we let some of our troops stop babysitting Iraq and get on with the business of stopping a real, undeniable, and dangerous nuclear program in Iran?
"The annexation issue comes up with Israel as well. Many of my friends half-jokingly refer to Israel as the 51st state. Indeed, if it were a US state life there would likely improve dramatically. Israel would likely cease to be a racist theocracy, and official discrimination against Israeli Arabs would come to a grinding halt."
There are so many falsehoods in this paragraph, it just confirms what I already thought of you.
1) there is no official discrimination against Israeli Arabs. There is some informal discrimination as here in the US racism hasn't been elimnated.
2) Israel has a more multi-racial, multi-cultural population than most countries. If you want to express outrage at racism, you;re aiming at the wrong target.
3) Israel has the highest rate of tech startups/capita in the world, conducts about 80% of the world's biomedical research, and lots of investment has been returning since the fence was built and terrorist attacks thwarted. To whatever extent Palestinians refuse to support terrorism, so they can work in Israel, or maybe attract investment to their own state, their lives will also improve.
Iraq is an arab tribal society entrenched in the middle ages. But if any arab country can achieve modernity, it is the Iraqis. Paradoxically, this is because Iraqis are divided, and each power group must be willing to concede something to achieve a meaningful united government.
If Iraq were all one tribe, one ethnicity, one religion, power would naturally devolve to the tribal/ethnic/religious leader, and the country would sink back into the typical arab autocracy.
Israel would likely cease to be a racist theocracy
What, with those 1 million+ Arab citizens, Ethiopian Jews, Slavic Jews, Sephardic Jews, Ashkenazi Jews, etc, Israel can only be described as racist.
Presumably the fence is an "Apartheid wall" too?
1) there is no official discrimination against Israeli Arabs. There is some informal discrimination as here in the US racism hasn't been elimnated.
http://www.acri.org.il/english-acri/engine/story.asp?id=177
Junk like this wouldn't be tolerated here.
There's also the minor matter of Arab Israelis not serving in the armed forces.
Someday soon the Israeli Arabs will outnumber the Israeli Jews. When that happens the situation could get ugly. Just how ugly depends greatly on how badly the Arab minority is treated between now and then.
>>3) Israel has the highest rate of tech startups/capita in the world, conducts about 80% of the world's biomedical research, and lots of investment has been returning since the fence was built and terrorist attacks thwarted.
I sure hope so, given the colossal amount of US tax dollars that get sunk into subsidizing the place.
>>To whatever extent Palestinians refuse to support terrorism, so they can work in Israel, or maybe attract investment to their own state, their lives will also improve.
Terrorism clearly makes the Palestinians worse off, but I expect that even without the very unwise violent resistance, the Palestinians would still be crushed. The smart thing to do would be to admit defeat and flee the country. Many already have. The weak must fall to give way to the strong.
Junk like this wouldn't be tolerated here.
The idea of paying for Arabs to live in Yesha doesn't strike you as a little weird?
There's also the minor matter of Arab Israelis not serving in the armed forces.
Bedouin can (and do).
Someday soon the Israeli Arabs will outnumber the Israeli Jews. When that happens the situation could get ugly. Just how ugly depends greatly on how badly the Arab minority is treated between now and then.
It will make no difference whatsoever. Most Israeli Arabs support terrorism against Israel. They'll go Lebanese quicker than you can say Bosnia.
The smart thing to do would be to admit defeat and flee the country.
There will always be those who get off on Jews being weak (not that you're antisemitic). Presumably you'd advise the Arab Christians to do the same thing?
not that you're antisemitic
Is there an HTML sarcasm tag?
The "racist" trope is disproved by the very link you use as evidence. And note the role played by the (secular) Supreme Court.
T.J., Israel is not a theocracy - and frankly, I wonder about anyone who would use that term. Israel is a democratic Jewish state where secular law is paramount. Rabbis in Israel have no political power unless they run as candidates and win at the ballot box. There is no "Guardian Council," or requirement for religious confirmation of representatives, or anything else. A theocracy would not allow Muslims and Arabs to serve in the Knesset, or make Arabic an official language of the state. One wonders at the mix of ignorance and malice that would lead you to use this term.
Then you suggest making both Israel & Iraq U.S. states (bet that would make for fun Senate debates), and I stop wondering. The word "nuts" comes to mind here.
But all this is very far from the subject of our thread. T.J., please hold your bile on the subject of Israel - this thread is not the time or place. I will also ask our other readers to confine the subject to Iraq (the topic of this post).
I'm asking nicely, but if this problem continues I'll enforce the request.
>>To piggyback off Dave Schulers question, are the Japanese, Dutch, Norwegian, spanish, french (yes we have American GI's in cowardly spain and france), Italian, Danish, Icelandic, etc goverments all puppet regimes?
The Japanese are most definitely a puppet regime. The USG wrote their constitution for them, and now when certain parts of that constitution prove inconvenient to USG power interests, they've been induced to violate those clauses.
Macarthur is surely spinning in his grave right now.
Italy was certainly a puppet regime for several years after WWII, with extensive CIA interference to ensure the "right" people got elected.
Similarly, in the immediate post-war period the German government was severely restrained. Clearly neither the return to a fascist state nor a communist revolution would have been allowed by USG forces.
Today the USG clearly exerts much less pressure on these states, as well as the smaller ones you listed. I expect that the remaining troop presence in these countries is the result of bureaucratic lag. Soon those forces will likely be redeployed east to countries like Poland, the Baltic states, maybe even the Ukraine.
>>Then you suggest making both Israel & Iraq U.S. states (bet that would make for fun Senate debates), and I stop wondering. The word "nuts" comes to mind here.
Are you claiming that the Iraqi people don't have what it takes to live in a real American-style democracy? :-)
Perhaps it's a bad idea, but it's sure better than some occupation plans I've heard of. The Morgenthau plan comes to mind.
>>One wonders at the mix of ignorance and malice that would lead you to use this term.
Please do not think of me as malicious. I harbor no desire to see harm done to any human, save that which is essential to save greater numbers of humans from harm. I have very little tolerance for the behavior of most governments; this should not be construed as hatred of the people who operate under those governments (or even in those governments!) Hence the use of USG instead of US, US citizens, USA, etc.
AFAIK, we both have roughly the same goals: maximize the liberty, minimize the body count.
>>But all this is very far from the subject of our thread. T.J., please hold your bile on the subject of Israel - this thread is not the time or place. I will also ask our other readers to confine the subject to Iraq (the topic of this post).
Very well, we'll discuss this later then.
The most significant impediment to the integration of islamic states as a peer into the international community of nation-states is shariah. Any system of laws that allocates human rights based on religious belief or gender is fundamentally incompatible with the internationally accepted Declaration of Human Rights. Shariah is a 7th century (AD) invention that is as intolerable in the modern world as other failed cancerous ideologies such as Nazism, Stalinism, racism, etc.
Whenever religious leaders are given the authority to deprive denizens of life, liberty or property the situation always turns out badly. This is the lesson of history that was front and center in the minds of the founders of the United States.
If Iraq is unable to keep the proponents of Shariah from hijacking the new political order then it will undoubtedly remain mired in the chaos and impoverished desperation that we see all over the islamic world that can be directly attributed to the attempts to use the moribund 7th century ideology as a template for a modern social and political order. Trying to adapt shariah to the modern world is as futile as putting lipstick on a pig.
Jan,
Then you'll want to pay special attention to the Hezb-i-Dawa Islamiyeh, or Islamic Dawa Party. They are not Iranian-aligned like SCIRI, and may end up having significant influence with the Shi'ite population.
The electoral dynamics around a SCIRI/Dawa split of the religious Shi'ite vote could become interesting. I would also be interested in reading Iraqi bloggers' thoughts about the Dawa Party.