Hello China, Hello Taiwan

Gary Farber's home blog is Amygdala.

It being summer, sing that to the tune of the great Allan Sherman's Hello, Muddah, Hello, Faddah.

If you can laugh.

Summer Pulse '04 is here. As announced on June 3rd by the Navy:

WASHINGTON (Jun. 3, 2004) -- The Department of Defense announced June 2 that this summer, simultaneous deployment of seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) will demonstrate the ability of the Navy to provide credible combat power across the globe by operating in five theaters with other U.S., allied and coalition military forces.

“Summer Pulse 04” will be the Navy’s first exercise of its new operational construct, the Fleet Response Plan (FRP). FRP is about new ways of operating, training, manning, and maintaining the fleet that results in increased force readiness and the ability to provide significant combat power to the President in response to a national emergency or crisis.

[...]

Under the FRP construct, the Navy can provide six CSGs in less than 30 days to support contingency operations around the globe, and two more CSGs can be ready in three months to reinforce or rotate with initially responding forces, to continue presence operations in other parts of the world, or to support military action in another crisis. Summer Pulse 04 will exercise the logistics and shore infrastructure necessary to execute a large scale surge operation, stress the operational concepts in the Navy’s Sea Power 21 strategy, and improve Navy interoperability with numerous allies and coalition partners, as well as other U.S. military forces.

Call it surging, or call it pulsing; it’s really just FDNF-ing. And nobody FDNFs like the USS Kitty Hawk, its sailors say.

“It’s what we do,” said Lt. Brook Dewalt, a Kitty Hawk spokesman.

So Summer Pulse 2004, the Navy’s first test of its new plan to be able to swiftly provide substantial sea-based combat power, isn’t causing many anxiety attacks on the nation’s only permanently forward-deployed aircraft carrier.

“We’re already positioned to get where we need to be in a pretty good fashion,” Dewalt said. “This is what the Forward Deployed Naval Forces does. When we get under way, we’re already deployed. We’re always on the leading edge. We are always surge-ready.”

The Kitty Hawk Carrier Strike Group is one of seven aircraft carrier strike groups surging, or pulsing, this summer, participating in the event that will put more than 50,000 sailors from seven aircraft carrier strike groups in exercises throughout the world’s seas, now through August.

All the other strike groups — the USS George Washington, USS John C. Stennis, USS John F. Kennedy, USS Harry S. Truman, USS Enterprise and USS Ronald Reagan are homeported in the U.S. and previously have been on a more regimented cycle for when the ships are at sea and when they’re in port.

Summer Pulse is a test of the Fleet Response Plan, which updates that old schedule with the idea of providing for a more flexible fleet that can deploy in strength faster than before.

In particular, the plan calls for six carrier strike groups to be ready to deploy within 30 days, and two more to be ready within 90 days. According to Adm. William Fallon, commander of the U.S. Fleet Forces Command and quoted on the command Web site, “It will signal to friends and potential adversaries that substantial sea-based combat power can respond on short notice.”

According to a posting on Sina.com, an influential website in China, the signs point to a gathering of all seven CSGs in the Pacific.

Sources in Beijing say China's reading is that Summer Pulse is being mounted with it as the target audience, a suspicion reinforced by reports that Taiwanese forces are slated to join in the drill.

Clearly, given Beijing's repeated warning that it will use force, as a last resort and whatever the cost, to stop Taiwanese independence, the US feels it needs to send Beijing a message.

From past deployment patterns, the US usually dispatches one CSG to a trouble spot as a reminder of its presence.

It did so several times in the past when tension was high in the Taiwan Strait.

It sends two to indicate serious concern, as was the case when China test-fired missiles over the strait in 1996.

In a combat situation, it deploys three to four, which was what it did in the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the recent Iraqi war.

But never before has it sent in peace time seven CSGs to the same theatre.

The implications for China are grave.

According to Kanwa Defense News, which specializes in Chinese military matters, Beijing can cope with just one CSG currently.

'But in five to 10 years, it can certainly take on seven,' said Mr Chang Hong-yi, head of Kanwa, in an interview with The Straits Times.

'China's military potential is enormous and in terms of military technology, the gap with the US is closing fast,' he added.

However, a Chinese military source who declined to be identified is more sanguine.

'Even now, China can easily take on two CSGs,' he said but conceded that there was no way it could face seven all at the same time.

This means that if China has to wage war over Taiwan, it has to be able to land and seize control of the island within the first 30 days.

Otherwise, under the FRP, six CSGs may well arrive to join in the battle.

'All this leaves China with no choice but to start and end the war with lightning speed,' said the source.

Politically, Summer Pulse is likely to be seen by many Chinese as naked intimidation.

'This is gunboat diplomacy in the 21st century,' the source remarked, adding that it would remind the Chinese people of their century-long deep humiliation by Western powers -- and put Sino-US relations at peril.

US should reconsider its Taiwan policies:

If the United States continues to send wrong signals to Taiwan in the present intensity of effort, then, there is the possibility that contingent event may break out across the Taiwan Straits.

Summer Pulse '04 was publically announced on June 4th, though known to military sources for some time before. On June 5th, in clear response, China announced:

BEIJING - China's largest military exercises of the year, to take place this month, are meant to send a 'substantial warning' to Taiwan separatists, state media said yesterday.

The annual summer exercises will be held this year on Dongshan Island off the Chinese coast and include air, sea and land forces, China Youth Daily said.
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Dongshan Island in south-eastern China's Fujian province is less than 280km west of Taiwan's Penghu Island.

The report did not say when the drills, said to be 'the People's Liberation Army's largest-scale exercise this year', would start or how long they would last, but similar drills in 2001 lasted for four months.

Neither did it say how many soldiers would take part in the amphibious mock Taiwan-landing backed by guided missiles, but the New Express Daily said last month that 18,000 troops would be involved.

The 2.5 million-strong PLA traditionally focused on land-based conflicts. But Beijing has spent heavily in recent years on its navy, building warships and landing craft that could support an invasion and other forces that could help blockade Taiwan.

The reference by the China Youth Daily to joint air, sea and land drills this year highlights recent efforts by Beijing to integrate its forces for complex manoeuvres - a key part of any possible attack on Taiwan, but one in which China lacks experience.

Chinese officials say the drills are routine, but state-controlled media often highlight their focus on capturing islands, a message clearly meant to intimidate Taiwan.

In the 2001 drills, some 100,000 soldiers were said to be engaged in amphibious exercises and mock warfare at sea, aimed at sinking an aircraft carrier.

Unlike previous exercises, this month's will aim at 'achieving control of the air', Beijing News reported.

'This change doesn't just show that the PLA's military theory has had an enormous change, but also indicates our military has acknowledged that control of the air is the top priority in modern warfare,' the report said.

Practically all the advanced weaponry China possesses will be used in the exercises, including the Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets purchased from Russia, it said.

Nuclear-powered submarines, warships, the latest model missile destroyers and a guided missile brigade will also be involved.

'It's not a preventive military manoeuvre against Taiwan independence as they were in the past,' the report said, citing military experts.

'Instead, to a great extent, it is a self-initiated, vigorous military offensive aimed at sending a substantial warning to Taiwan,' it added.

Beijing Youth Daily said that Dongshan Island was picked for the drills not only because of its proximity to Taiwan but also for the similarity of its terrain to Taiwan's.

The drills are being staged amid speculation that the America is planning a massive show of force - including what was said to be the unprecedented deployment of seven aircraft carrier strike groups - in an exercise code-named Operation Summer Pulse 04 in the Pacific Ocean near China after mid-July.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's Defence Ministry has confirmed for the first time that the island has drawn up plans for a military offensive against China, Taiwanese newspaper China Times reported.

But the report did not say whether the plans included attacks on China's Three Gorges Dam or Hong Kong.

Yesterday, reportedly in reaction to Condoleeza Rice's recent Chinese visit, we saw this:

China expressed grave concern Tuesday that recent U.S. support for Taiwan and Hong Kong was undermining Washington's commitment to its one-China policy.

The toughly worded statements, at a rare news conference called by the spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, came only days after a trip to Beijing by national security adviser Condoleezza Rice.

Both Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney -- who made a trip to Beijing in April -- have tried to keep a lid on China-Taiwan tensions but the effort seems to be having limited success.

Despite repeated reassurances that the United States stands by the one-China policy, Beijing has been increasingly vocal about its displeasure with Taiwan independence-seekers and with American support for the self-ruled island.

"We are gravely concerned over the recent U.S. moves on the Taiwan question," embassy spokesman Sun Wiede said in a formal statement.

"We strongly urge the U.S. side to stop selling advanced arms to Taiwan and cut the military links between the U.S. and Taiwan, stop any official exchanges with Taiwan authorities, stop supporting Taiwan to join the international organizations where statehood is required," he said.

"Only in this way can stable development of the China-U.S. relations as well as the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait be guaranteed," Sun said.

Later, answering questions, he added: "It's time for the United States to honor its commitments to the Chinese side."

Read The Rest Scale: as you wish for any, but I've quoted most of the relevant links.