Simon runs a regular overview feature on his blog, Simon World, where "East meets Westerner." He's also the founder of the New Blog Showcase for bloggers just starting out. One good turn deserves another, Simon... so with his agreement, his overview is cross-posted today to Winds of Change.NET.
TOP TOPICS
- Slowly minds are being turned on the idea that China might actually invade Taiwan. More inside...
- JK: Simon has an interesting article on China's population policies. It includes population growth, gender imbalance figures, and efforts to "[raise] the population quality."
- JK: Congress will vote on the North Korean Human Rights Act this week. One Free Korea explains what the act would do, and why it's important for Americans to contact their representatives. He even has a sample letter to help. I would urge Americans to get involved, for all the reasons Joshua describes. North Korea is literally a rolling genocide, complete with concentration camps whose depths of cruelty and depravity stand on the same level as Treblinka et. al. Prudence and circumstances may prevent us from removing the regime, but we cannot just turn a blind eye and pretend this isn't happening.
INSIDE
Doing the rounds for the Asian blogging round-up:
- Richard notes that, as is often the case, the media sometimes has hidden agendas on this issue too. Tom weighs in on the issue including a quote stating this could be the cause of World War 3 and ACB notes the US Congress again backed the Taiwan Relations Act.
- I used to think this was alarmist but I'm more realistic now - the depth of feeling on this issue is difficult to fathom for those outside. On a similar note, ESWN looks at the "Summer Pulse 04" story and the various options for "war" against China and how a bit of simple fact-checking would make the LA Times a better paper. Adam also has links on Summer Pulse, and Gary Farber had a long and detailed round-up back on July 15th.
- ESWN looks at some opinion polls for HK's LegCo elections in September and notes the high undecided vote up for grabs and the lack of platforms for the campaigning parties. He also translates a From 7 student's views on the recent HK march and the crowd estimates.
- Danwei on spin in China. ESWN also notes the perverse effects of Hong Kong's libel laws on reporting stories. ACB notes China is now redubbing stories to prevent news leaking out to English or Japanese speakers.
- Marmot has an article from Foreign Affairs on the rise of Asia and its influence in the shifting sands of international relations. Marmot says the lessons of history need to be heeded on both sides in dealing with this new reality. It's a forward-looking analysis of emerging geo-politics which doesn't get as much airplay as it should because of the focus on the Middle East.
- ESWN translates a chapter of a report on Chinese peasantry and notes that often China's political leadership need to work hard to get around their bureaucrats and effect change. I don't agree with the conclusions reached (at the bottom of the translation) that China needs to solve its problems its own way. A democratic leader is just as likely to visit many of the country's counties as an imposed one - a democratic leader needs votes; the imposed one needs legitimacy.
- Gut Rumbles notes China's "softening up" of Singapore's next PM.
- Chinese Suburbia points to an interesting site called China Elections. The conclusions are obvious: democracy involves far more than just elections. Rule of law, non-arbitrary detention, private property rights and many more elements are needed for a viable democracy. Nothing new there, but important points nonetheless.
- Fumier looks at HK driving and how not to teach it. He also points to the invaluable 30th anniversary Hello Kitty quiz, a must for Hemlock.
- Chris talks about the madness of crowds when a typhoon approaches. Wanbro has an imaginatively-titled post that agrees it was much ado about nothing.
- TR talks about the latest Chinese war on the internet: this time against p0rn.
- The Tapei Kid says fakes are everywhere these days.
- As to Fons' description that blogs should maintain strict focus, I completely disagree. Blogs are at the discretion of their author: if they want success then perhaps strict focus is one way to attain it. However there are plenty of different blog styles, just like there are plenty of TV channels or newspapers. It is these differences that make things interesting. Anyway Fons and John both point to this article on a fictitious China expat blogger. It is harsh and not entirely fair and seemingly devoid of a point. Some blogs are written by (mainly) American ESL teachers in China. However much you don't agree with them, they all have interesting insights into life in China from their point of view. And like everything on the internet, if you don't like it or you're not interested you don't have to read it. In all it seems a patronising article towards these bloggers. If the author had a blog himself he might be in a better place to pass judgement.
- Phil Sen (who's blog just turned 1) notes that China is getting quicker at putting up walls.
- Korea's ongoing censorship of blogs continues. Kevin has more here, an exchange with Marmot on the issue here, an analysis of the blocking and more here, and finally an interesting post leading on from the whole issue onto the idea of moral equivalence. He's also got a flattering write-up on a Korean news site (via Kimchee GI). FY thought the ban might be over, but it turns out someone was just asleep at the wheel. Blinger has ongoing coverage of the whole fracas.
- Kimchee GI says the North Koreans are no longer pretending about nukes.
- RiK laments the poor state of reporting in Korea's media with a thorough example of how bad (and racist) it can be.
- Marmot has the links on the capture of what looks like South Korea's worst serial killer. He also talks about the importance of names and the history they reflect.
- Jodi points out a double standard in Japan's handling of Bobby Fischer and Robert Jenkins.
- She also thinks Robert Jenkins at least owes the US military an explanation.
- Following up on the pullout of the Philippines from Iraq: Michelle Malkin responds to some mail and has some more links on the issue. The Sassy Lawyer succinctly responds to Jay Leno's quips and the reactions to it. She also summarises the deeper reasons behind the moves. I disagree with her: despite the history of the Philippine/US relationship, a long and complex one, the political reality is this pullout makes Iraq more dangerous for others still there and it is a slap in the face for the US after it's support in helping the Philippines deal with its Muslim insurgents. The other side is nicely presented by Dean Jorge Bocobo who has more here and here. Jodi agrees with Dean.
- Who knew? Andres says Israel helped set up Singapore's armed forces.
- The Swanker points to an Asia Times article on the shifting political sands in Indonesia.
- Jodi talks about culture shock when Western pop culture hits SE Asia.
Gut Rumble's post is too funny.
ESWN's analysis of possible war with China in defense of Taiwan is interesting but, IMO, flawed.
The 7-carrier force could indeed control China's Pacific airspace - as Gary Farber noted in his post on the subject right here on Winds.
Indeed, a central driver behind China's current missile-heavy strategy (other than the nature of China's own internal power structure) is China's wish to make it too dangerous for U.S. naval forces to come to Taiwan's aid by giving China a "long range denial" capability. But they aren't quite there yet.
The facet of all this that people haven't commented on, however, is the issue of submarines. Attack subs could make Chinese attempts to supply its troops across the Strait of Formosa a nightmare, create logistical havoc, and defeat any invasion that could not achieve its objectives in one overwhelming push. The USA and Taiwan definitely have the subs to achieve that goal.
So the carriers are the big, public stick (a stick Iran has to be conscoius of too) - but the part that matters most in this game of naval chicken is the part you won't see.
An additional factor that needs to be taken into account is oil. Does China have enough ready reserves to fight even a lightning campaign against Taiwan in the face of their vulnerability to blockade? The Asia Times reported back in January:
In April China View suggested that building up strategic oil reserves had not made much progress. Unless they've made up for lost time, the one month window that Gary's links suggest may be one week. And what would the effect on China's economy of such a course of action be?
Good points, Dave. The answer is an economic crash, of course.
Widening the war to a general blockade would be very possible, especially with submarines. But it should also be noted that this would begin an escalation process with no definite end.
Bottom line is that right now, China probably does not have the tools for a lightning campaign that could take Taiwan. It definitely does not have the tools to do so if the USA steps into the dance.
Which is why the U.S. Navy's "Summer Pulse 2004" exercises will probably succeed in keeping a lid on things. But the fact that they're mounting it definitely sends a strong signal.
My question is, is this exercise really just an exercise, and is it aimed at China?
"Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."
You're right that submarines are the key factor in the logistics in any possible war that may happen, and it's pretty clear that the PRC is realizing that as well, but then how can Summer Pulse be aimed at China when there aren't going to by any boats in the Pacific?
That doesn't mean Beijing won't interpret it that way, but overall they're pretty placated by Wasthington right now, their biggest problem being the power struggle going on with the Jiang faction and the Hu/Wen faction. Policy formation is taking a back seat these days in preparation, no doubt, for this fall's showdown at the next large government conference.
I'm glad to see such a variety of opinions expressed on this question, and in particular that Simon is able to sum up blogs from an entire sub-continent so well, but to me the topic is really a distraction. Interesting times lay ahead and almost no one realizes that the PRC, Taiwan, and the US will be very much affected by the loggerhead struggle they're now having, not by how able or unable China is able to attack. If Jiang wins, the war gets more likely, if Hu/Wen win, the war becomes next to very unlikely.
"If Jiang wins, the war gets more likely, if Hu/Wen win, the war becomes next to very unlikely."
True, and it really is just that simple the way I see it.
Thanks, Simon, for keeping the campaign against press censorship going. Its becoming more and more difficult to distinguish fascists in Seoul from apathetic westerners.