|
July 21, 2004Simon's East Asia Overview: 2004-07-21by Guest Author at July 21, 2004 2:08 PM
Simon runs a regular overview feature on his blog, Simon World, where "East meets Westerner." He's also the founder of the New Blog Showcase for bloggers just starting out. One good turn deserves another, Simon... so with his agreement, his overview is cross-posted today to Winds of Change.NET. TOP TOPICS
INSIDE Doing the rounds for the Asian blogging round-up:
Tracked: July 22, 2004 7:19 AM
Asia by Blog from Simon World
Excerpt: Joe at Winds of Change kindly cross-posted the last edition and in return I'm pinching his formatting idea. Let that be a lesson to you. And now on with the show of Asia's blogging's best: Hong Kong, Taiwan and China Phil Sen looks at who would win a w...
Tracked: July 22, 2004 4:37 PM
My final word from Brainysmurf
Excerpt: on the Will China attack Taiwan question that so many commented on recently. I wrote this in response to the mini-discussion over at Winds of Change in the comment section of a superlative round up of East Asian blogs courtesy of Simon. You're right th...
Tracked: August 5, 2004 1:21 AM
Perspectives from Showcase
Excerpt: Welcome Vodkapundit readers. Please take your time and have a look around. Most of your questions are likely answered here and there are many great entries on the front page and in the archives. If you have a blog yourself...
Comments
#1 from ladyj at 5:28 pm on Jul 21, 2004
Gut Rumble's post is too funny. ESWN's analysis of possible war with China in defense of Taiwan is interesting but, IMO, flawed.
The 7-carrier force could indeed control China's Pacific airspace - as Gary Farber noted in his post on the subject right here on Winds. Indeed, a central driver behind China's current missile-heavy strategy (other than the nature of China's own internal power structure) is China's wish to make it too dangerous for U.S. naval forces to come to Taiwan's aid by giving China a "long range denial" capability. But they aren't quite there yet. The facet of all this that people haven't commented on, however, is the issue of submarines. Attack subs could make Chinese attempts to supply its troops across the Strait of Formosa a nightmare, create logistical havoc, and defeat any invasion that could not achieve its objectives in one overwhelming push. The USA and Taiwan definitely have the subs to achieve that goal. So the carriers are the big, public stick (a stick Iran has to be conscoius of too) - but the part that matters most in this game of naval chicken is the part you won't see. An additional factor that needs to be taken into account is oil. Does China have enough ready reserves to fight even a lightning campaign against Taiwan in the face of their vulnerability to blockade? The Asia Times reported back in January: HONG KONG - China's energy crisis caused by shortages of coal and hydroelectric power is compounded by a worsening oil shortfall. Though the world's fifth-largest oil producer, China has fallen from being a net oil importer in 1993 to becoming the world's fastest-growing importer. Its estimated exploitable oil reserves would last about a week. In April China View suggested that building up strategic oil reserves had not made much progress. Unless they've made up for lost time, the one month window that Gary's links suggest may be one week. And what would the effect on China's economy of such a course of action be? Good points, Dave. The answer is an economic crash, of course. Widening the war to a general blockade would be very possible, especially with submarines. But it should also be noted that this would begin an escalation process with no definite end. Bottom line is that right now, China probably does not have the tools for a lightning campaign that could take Taiwan. It definitely does not have the tools to do so if the USA steps into the dance. Which is why the U.S. Navy's "Summer Pulse 2004" exercises will probably succeed in keeping a lid on things. But the fact that they're mounting it definitely sends a strong signal. My question is, is this exercise really just an exercise, and is it aimed at China? "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." You're right that submarines are the key factor in the logistics in any possible war that may happen, and it's pretty clear that the PRC is realizing that as well, but then how can Summer Pulse be aimed at China when there aren't going to by any boats in the Pacific? That doesn't mean Beijing won't interpret it that way, but overall they're pretty placated by Wasthington right now, their biggest problem being the power struggle going on with the Jiang faction and the Hu/Wen faction. Policy formation is taking a back seat these days in preparation, no doubt, for this fall's showdown at the next large government conference. I'm glad to see such a variety of opinions expressed on this question, and in particular that Simon is able to sum up blogs from an entire sub-continent so well, but to me the topic is really a distraction. Interesting times lay ahead and almost no one realizes that the PRC, Taiwan, and the US will be very much affected by the loggerhead struggle they're now having, not by how able or unable China is able to attack. If Jiang wins, the war gets more likely, if Hu/Wen win, the war becomes next to very unlikely. "If Jiang wins, the war gets more likely, if Hu/Wen win, the war becomes next to very unlikely." True, and it really is just that simple the way I see it.
#9 from Infidel in ROK at 1:42 am on Jul 24, 2004
Thanks, Simon, for keeping the campaign against press censorship going. Its becoming more and more difficult to distinguish fascists in Seoul from apathetic westerners.
Post a comment
Here are some quick tips for adding simple Textile formatting to your comments, though you can also use proper HTML tags: |
You're Reading an Individual Post!
If you want to head to the main blog page, just follow the "Main" link in the navigation up top underneath our blog's name. Or click here:
Winds of Change.NET Home
Winds of Change Library
Support VictoryPAC
Recent Entries
· Going Solar, Chapter 2
· The Funniest Thing I've Heard All Day... · Well, I Know Who I Won't Be Voting For For Governor · Someone At The New York Times Is A Monty Python Fan... · An Experiment On Blog Diffusion... · The Bin Ladens of the Balkans, Part I · On The Road Again (Literally, this time)...and a few passing thoughts. · The Truth about March 14 · Mr. Smith Goes To Topeka · Is the War Over? · An Abominable Blood-Logged Plain · Back On The Road This Week · Responding To Chris H On Patriotism · Guns At Home · Guns In The Woods
Support Winds of Change.NET!
Your support & assistance is greatly appreciated, and makes a difference!
The Winds Crew:
Town Founder: Joe Katzman joe {at} windsofchange. net Joe's Normblog Interview Left-Hand Man: Marc 'Armed Liberal' Danziger armed {at} windsofchange. net A.L.'s Normblog Interview Other Winds Marshals 'AMac', aka. Marshal Festus (AMac@...) Robin "Straight Shooter" Burk 'Cicero', aka. The Quiet Man (cicero@...) David Blue (david.blue@...) 'Lewy14', aka. Marshal Leroy (lewy14@...) 'Nortius Maximus', aka. Big Tuna (nortius.maximus@...) Other Regulars 'Callimachus' (callimachus@...) 'Demosophist' (demosophist@...) Rev./Maj. Donald Sensing 'Molon Labe' (molon.labe@...) 'Neo Neo-Con' Tarek Heggy (tarek@...) Semi-Active: Arthur Chrenkoff 'Gabriel Gonzalez' (in Paris) Tim Oren (tim@...) Trent Telenko (trent@...) Posting Affiliates Athena: Terrorism Unveiled Chester: The Adventures of Chester Dave Schuler: The Glittering Eye Grim: Grim's Lair et. al. Joel Gaines [Russia] Michael Totten MILblogging.com: The MilBlogs directory Murdoc [Military] Situational Awareness team [Military] Nathan Hamm [Central Asia] Randy Paul [Latin America] Robert Koehler [Koreas] Robi Sen [India & S. Asia] Nitin Pai [India & S. Asia] Simon [China & E. Asia] Yehudit: Kesher Talk Regular Topic Briefings: Andrew Olmsted [Iraq Weekly] Joel Gaines [Iraq Weekly] Security Watchtower [GWoT Mon.] Peace Like A River [GWoT Mon.] Colt [GWoT Thu.] John Atkinson [Alternative Energy] Peter Wolfgang [Alternative Energy] Omri Ceren [Hatewatch] Emeritus: Adil Farooq (adil@...) Celeste Bilby (celeste@...) Dan Darling Gary Farber (gary@...) Hossein Derakhshan (hoder@...) T.L. James (tljames@...) Robin Burk (robin@...)
Winds of Change.NET Blogkids & Affiliates
· The Argus: covering Central Asia · Canis Iratus: Glen Wishard · Correct-Amundo: Tech & society · Discarded Lies: Ev & Zorkie · The Flying Kiwi: Donovan Janus · The Glittering Eye: Dave Schuler · Gumptionology: Nortius Maximus · Hot Needle of Inquiry: 'Jinnderella' · Laughing Wolf: C. Blake Powers · Out The Mazoo: 'Mazoo' · Power and Control: M. Simon · Praktike's Place: 'Praktike' · Random Probabilities: Robin Burk · Siberian Light: covering Russia · The Spirit of Man · Good News From the Front · WATCH/: covering the war on terror
Archives By Category
-FEATURES: 48 Ways to Wisdom (24)
-FEATURES: Diaries & Roundups (10) -FEATURES: Military Transformation Uplink (12) -FEATURES: New Energy Currents (20) -FEATURES: Reader Highlights (2) -FEATURES: Regional Briefings (166) -FEATURES: Sufi Wisdom (158) -FEATURES: The Bard's Breath (32) -FEATURES: Winds of Discovery (6) -FEATURES: Winds of War [WoT] (444) 4 HA: 4th-Gen Warfare (102) 4 HA: al-Qaeda (159) 4 HA: Crime, Organized (26) 4 HA: Evil Exists (110) 4 HA: Intelligence/Spycraft (100) 4 HA: Military (521) 4 HA: Nukes, Poisons, Germs (135) 4 HA: Statecraft (29) 4 HA: War on Terror articles (706) Best Of... (179) BIZ: Business & Organizations (131) BIZ: Economics (96) BIZ: Energy (71) CIVIS (230) CIVIS: Copyright Wars (25) CIVIS: Drug Wars (18) CIVIS: Edu-Kooks (76) CIVIS: Free Societies (289) CIVIS: Hall of Shame (162) CIVIS: Hatred Rising (114) CIVIS: Journalism & Media (398) CIVIS: Spirit of America.NET (31) CIVIS: War Within the West (309) COLUMNISTS: M. Simon (13) COLUMNISTS: Tarek Heggy (33) GEO: Afghanistan (78) GEO: Africa (102) GEO: Asia (116) GEO: Aussies & Kiwis (20) GEO: Canada (68) GEO: China (86) GEO: Europe (178) GEO: France (71) GEO: India-Pakistan (112) GEO: Iran (223) GEO: Iraq (957) GEO: Israel (246) GEO: Koreas (64) GEO: Latin America (63) GEO: Middle East (255) GEO: Russia (74) GEO: Saudi Arabia (64) GEO: Sudan (36) GEO: U.K. (70) GEO: U.N. (60) GEO: U.S. of A (502) HUMANITY (88) HUMANITY: Art & Culture (158) HUMANITY: Art - Music (32) HUMANITY: Art - Poetry (6) HUMANITY: Christianity (52) HUMANITY: Heroes & Achievements (228) HUMANITY: History (124) HUMANITY: Islam (182) HUMANITY: Judaism (136) HUMANITY: Love (32) HUMANITY: Philosophy (48) HUMANITY: Spirituality & Religion (72) HUMANITY: Zen & Buddhism (28) Humour (195) Misc. (42) NET: Blogosphere (392) NET: Cyber-Security (16) NET: Grid Computing (3) NET: Spam (24) NET: The Internet (35) NET: The Open Source Meme (17) Personal (188) SCI-TECH: Biotech & Medical (83) SCI-TECH: Eco-tech (81) SCI-TECH: Nanotech (27) SCI-TECH: Science (111) SCI-TECH: Space (75) SCI-TECH: Technology (143) SPORTS (45) SPORTS: Baseball (75) Trends (64) USA: America Catch-all (19) USA: Anti-Americanism (6) USA: California Politics (5) USA: Conservatives & GOP (31) USA: Dem Party Renewal (71) USA: Domestic Issues (50) USA: Elections (84) USA: Grand Strategy (15) USA: Homeland Security (106) VictoryPAC (3) Winds of Change.NET (49)
Archives by Date
July 2008
June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003 March 2003 February 2003 January 2003 November 2002 October 2002 September 2002 August 2002 July 2002 June 2002 May 2002 April 2002 Joe's Old Archives, By Title: April - June 2002 July - December 2002
Winds Blogroll
Top Prospects
Support VictoryPACSP Normblog (LHP) SP Solomonia (RHP) RF Mader Blog CF Donklephant LF Harry's Place C Critical Mass 1B Tigerhawk 2B Gideon's Blog SS Alexander the Average 3B Democracy Arsenal UT INF Pundita DH Counterterrorism Blog PEN Liberals Against Terrorism CL Gates of Vienna MASCOT Huffington's Toast MGR Robert Tagorda GM Conservative Grapevine Humour Blogs · Cox & Forkum (cartoons) · Day By Day (cartoons) · User Friendly (cartoons) · AllahPundit (satire) · Scrappleface (satire) Religious Blogs · Conscientia (baha'i) · Unlearned Hand (bud) · Eve Tushnet (cath) · Muslim Under Progress (isl) · Ideofact (isl) · Kesher Talk (jew) · Rabbi Lazer Brody (jew) · Rishon Rishon (jew) · Rev. Donald Sensing (prot) Other Team Memberships · Command Post [All] · No End But Victory [All] · AlwaysOn [JK] Blog Services · NZ Bear's Ecosystem · Blogstreet · Daypop Top 40 · Technorati · Movable Type.org · Write A Better Blog More entries coming! |
http://www.windsofchange.net/windsopcentre-cms/trackback.cgi/2986
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference
"Simon's East Asia Overview: 2004-07-21"