Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from Iraq that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Our "Winds of War" coverage of the global War on Terror is also up for perusal.
Round 2 of our auditions is currently in progress, and today's Iraq Report is brought to you by the Antipodean Alan of AEBrain and Max.
TOP TOPICS
Al Sadr Goes for Broke. The balloon has gone up, the fertiliser has hit the fan etcetera. Our main stories - the Al Sadr rising, Iran's role, Economic Blackmail, Southern Secession, and first-hand fighting reports, are all inter-related.
- Clashes are reported in Najaf, Western Baghdad, Basra and Mosul. Despite offers of an amnesty, Al Sadr has vowed to fight to the Death. Some 1200 of those fighting didn't take the same vow.
- Oil hits $45 a Barrel. Despite Al Sadr's claims to the contrary, Iraqi oil officials report that the Southern Oil Company's facilities around Basra have been specifically threatened with attack. A major oil pipeline near Basra was hit by Al Sadr forces on Monday. Attacks on an oil compound were also reported just outside the Al Sadr stronghold of Sadr City. Production has been suspended in Iraq's southern region, which supplies 90% of Iraq's output. In the wake of this, international oil prices have hit $45 but are steadying.
- Focus on the Stryker Brigade. As reported in the last Winds of War Report on Iraq, the US Army's new Stryker Armoured Vehicle is in the thick of the fighting. Although it has not been reported by the media, you can read a harrowing first-person account of how a platoon got caught in the "killing sack" of an ambush in Mosul, fought its way out, then came back for more. Thereby proving the adage that it's not the Steel the men ride in, it's the Steel in the men riding.
Other Topics Today Include: Sistani's Absence; Najaf Evacuation; UK & Iraqis involved in fighting; Iranian Involvement; UK Najaf intel summary; Toy Drive Ripped Off; Chalabi and the Saddam Trial; Oil exports down; Southern Seccession mooted; More First-Hand Reports from Soldiers at the Front; How to support the troops - and Iraqis; Finnish Internet draft-dodgers.
REPORTS FROM THE FIELD
- The US has called for civilians to be evacuated from Najaf, in what many see as the prelude to a once-and-for-all assault on Al Sadr's forces.
- Some of Uncle Sam's Misguided Children talk about exactly how much Iraq sucks - but that having gauze up your nose to stop you choking on blood is a hell of a way to get sent back to Germany.
- British forces said to be straining at the leash. In the latest developments, some may have been let loose.
- Dramatis Personae in Najaf. The Iraqi National Guard are playing a large and increasing role, comprising over 1/3 of Coalition forces.
RECONSTRUCTION & THE ECONOMY
- Getting the Iraqi economy back on its feet isn't being helped by the folks at Atlas Shipping. Operation Give, the toy drive for Iraq, is down to the tune of $30,000. Latest news is that the $20,000 cheque Atlas sent was a Dud.
- Iraq's Oil exports are now reported as down to 35,000 barrels/hour instead of 80,000.
IRAQI POLITICS
- Grand Ayotollah Sistani, the moderate head of the Shiite community and a 'moderating influence' was evacuated to London immediately before the fighting broke out. There was immediate speculation as to whether he was conveniently evacuated so the US Marines could lower the boom on Al Sadr, or whether he was truly sick, and Al Sadr saw his chance and took it. Zayed of Healing Iraq has some insider info.
- Ahmed Chalabi, currently residing in Iran with his backers, has stated that all the charges against him are politically motivated. His nephew, Salem Chalabi, is overseeing the trial of Saddam Hussein. He is the subject of a Murder charge, and currently is in London. They have both said they will be flying back to refute the charges Real Soon Now. Latest reports even say that this International man of Mystery has already returned.
- Southern Iraq heading for Splitsville?
THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE
- There are both first-hand reports of Iranians involved in the latest fighting, and an official statement by the Interim Iraqi Defence Minister of weapons being supplied by Iran to Al Sadr. European media reports are divided as to whether the worsening US-Iranian relations are the result of Zionist pressure or American reckless haste.
- Two Iranian Journalists are now 'assisting Iraqi police with their inquiries', and it's confirmed that some of the fighters captured recently are Iranian.
- Meanwhile, the border with Iran can best be described as porous.
NO NAMES, NO PACK DRILL
- The unofficial UK intel summary is that several different games are being played at once.
- Senior Shias want Sadr "dealt with".
- America is quite willing to play Rome, but expect Interim Government to play Sanhedrin.
- Iran is attempting to set up a client Shia state in the South, to include Najaf and Bashra. They are well aware that Bush's hands are tied.
- Interim Government wants to go hard and fast to establish a secular state, prior to any elections. Sadr either comes on board as a Political leader, or leaves the scene. See (2) above.
- British Military think that "Now" is the time to play Mr Nasty, Foreign
Office want to avoid any actions other than self defence. (Strong scent of YES MINISTER !). - MoD well prepared to send further Bde Group into theatre.
- OPEC (read Saudi) quite happy for Iraqi oil supplies to be threatened.
- Expect (further) attacks on Northern Pipe lines.
ETCETERA
- The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: not just Americans, but other nations with soldiers on the front lines. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!
- Another way to support the troops is to help them to help the locals. That's exactly what Spirit of America does. Winds of Change.NET supports them 100% - and not just because "Armed Liberal" is their COO. Get involved! Spirit of America wants YOU!
- We try to close on a lighter note if possible.... John F. Kerry's call for additional support from other nations may run into some difficulties. Finland in particular is finding that many of its conscripts are addicts unfit to serve. They're Internet Addicts.
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.
After suprising everyone by actually qualifying for the Olympics in soccer Iraq has just won its first match, against Portugal, 4 to 2. It was 3 to 2 at the end of regulation and Iraq scored the final goal during 4 minutes of time added for injuries and penalties. Portugal was heavily favored to win. Well, Iraq has something now to celebrate as a nation. It may actually help the political situation to some extent. Wouldn't it be a hoot if they went on to win a medal?
Uh-oh.
The news over the last week has NOT been good. In addition to the links above, here's one from Juan Cole - violence in at least 4 areas:
Link here
As well, here is an article from Salon (need to read ad):
Link here
Awhile back, I had said there were 3 probable outcomes, when dealing with this insurgency in various areas:
1. A house by house tacitus-approved retaking of "enemy territory", cleaning out of the enemy.
2. A drift into civil war.
3. Quasi-independent areas, with sporadic violence.
Maybe eventually recognizing the main government, and Iraq coming together again into a cohesive government.
Number 3 I pegged as the likely outcome, and a better outcome than Saddam.
But if civil war looks like the outcome (which all the news in this week suggests), this is very very very bad news.
It's only a week - we'll see what will happen. But over the last month, things have seemed to get worse.