Robi & Nitin's Subcontinent Survey: 2004-09-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn

TOP TOPICS: PAKISTAN GETS SERIOUS

• In the last few months Al-Qaeda has staged multiple assassination attempts on Musharraf and other member of the Pakistani government. Recently reports have event cited the same Al Queda group, Islambouli Brigades, was linked to the recent bombings of Russian Airlines!

• Musharraf and the ruling powers of Pakistan have belatedly responded with a seriousness that has not been seen before, unleashing all their resources against militants and Al Qaeda terrorists alike causing them to scramble to different hiding places.

• In part due to Pakistan's success, Pakistani militants and Al-Qaeda elements have started to cooperate closely and form alliances. While some have claimed that Pakistan is putting on a show to help G.W. Bush, it is really hard to believe that anyone would thing that Musharraf would repeatedly let himself almost get killed as well as lose trusted allies just to put on a show. Musharraf has become serious as a matter of survival and he knows better than anyone else how serious the threat is in part because, he helped create it.

Other Topics Today Include:The Maldives at sea; Bangladesh; Balochistan rises in revolt, again; Shifting Alliances; India - trouble beyond the Chicken's neck; Nepal - A shattered Shangri-La

THE MALDIVES AT SEA

• President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom has been in power in Maldives for a long time now - too long, according to his detractors and political opponents. While Gayoom's over two decade long rule has brought economic prosperity to its inhabitants, his domination of the political scene has caused dissatisfaction in many quarters leading to calls for political reform.

• Gayoom himself tried to use Islam and the Sharia law to deflect attention from his own attempts to ensure that political power remained within his own hands. Matters came to a head in August when he imposed a state of emergency to clamp down on street protestors. Similar attempts to clamp down on the opposition's web-sites were met with less success. The Head Heeb reports that Gayoom has hired former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright in an attempt to deflect international criticism of his actions.

BANGLADESH: TERRORISTS STRIKE & GENERAL STRIKES

• Awami League, the main political opposition had organized a huge rally to protests the government's lackadaisical attitude towards investigating recent acts of serious political violence aimed at cultural targets, religious minorities and opposition politicians. Ironically, this rally itself came under a well-planned attack by terrorists who almost succeeded in assassinating Awami League leader and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Several top opposition leaders were killed or seriously wounded in the attacks that killed at least 20 people.

• Dhaka blogger Rezwan's reports that the grenades used in the attack could have been manufactured either in Pakistan or China and their markings suggest that they were for covert use.

• Earlier this year, Bangladeshi authorities apprehended a major consignment of arms at Chittagong but failed to make any headway in establishing the antecedents of the shippers or the addressees, although media reports suggest the hand of Islamic fundamentalists in the affair. A previously unknown terrorist group Hikmat-ul-Zihad claimed responsibility for the attacks.

• Given the government's failure to properly investigate the recent violence, conspiracy theorists have blamed the Awami League itself for staging the attacks and gain international sympathy.

• The usual 'foreign hand', in this case, India's has been seen. The opposition itself has held the ruling party and its Islamic fundamentalist coalition partners responsible and has called for strikes and street protests (and consequently lost the moral high ground). In Bangladesh's bitter political landscape, truth may already have become the casualty. And if the attackers had planned to plunge Bangladesh into political turmoil, they seem to have already succeeded.

SHIFTING ALLIANCES

• India's new government's recent criticisms of Israel and support of Palestine's issues without condemning Palestinian terrorism has many wondering what may happen between India and Israel. This will become much more clear when we see what side India takes in the None-Allied Movements (NAM's) support of a boycott of Israeli products. A boycott by India of Israel's products would have a massive impact on Israel's economy.

• As we have reported before in here India and Israel have strong and ever growing ties not only defense and tourism but growing collaborations on basic research and science. Recently India and Israel started negotiations on a joint research and development fund.

• Interestingly enough it seems like India is continuing to move forward with increasing relations with the United States and the new Indian Ambassador, Ronen Sen, has plans to greatly increase relations between the two countries.

• India has been mentioned several times during the Republican National Convention with G.W. Bush calling for closer ties with India and Indian American groups met this week in New York to endorse the GOP. Surprisingly and somewhat controversially, Ronen Sen should up at the meeting.

BALOCHISTAN RISES IN REVOLT

• Balochistan province has had a testy relationship with the Pakistani federation. It was included in the new Pakistani state by force after its erstwhile ruler decided to opt for independence.

• A revolt in the 1970s, in Balochistan, was put down after a brutal military campaign initiated by the then President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and continued by his successor General Zia-ul-Haq.

• It has now fallen on the government of General Musharraf to put down the third generation of Baloch nationalists who have again risen in rebellion although Pakistan has been making statements that it will not be sending in the troops. The nationalists have a long list of grievances, rarely reported, including the exploitation of province's abundant natural resources without much in return.

• Although Musharraf's government has planned several development projects for the province, the funds and revenues are controlled by the federal government. For his part, Musharraf has vowed to continue with the projects - including building of a deep-water port in Gwadar (giving China access to the Indian Ocean), three Army cantonments (which the Balochis rightly suspect of potential land-grabs) and a potential Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (which would allow Islamabad to earn lucrative license fees). With real power being in Musharraf's hands, an attempt by Pakistan's elected representatives to pursue a dialogue with the Baloch nationalists is unlikely to achieve any major breakthrough.

INDIA - TROUBLE BEYOND THE CHICKEN'S NECK

• India's north-eastern states have simultaneously been recipients of both benign neglect and federal largesse. In spite of the central government's consistently generous budgetary allocations, the economy of the region has remained stagnant. Simmering dissatisfaction and remoteness from mainstream India often fuels separatism and insurgency - a fact well-exploited by local politicians, insurgents, drug-smugglers and neighboring governments.

• The latest bout of political tensions in Manipur state were triggered off by the alleged rape and custodial death of a Manipuri woman at the hands of Indian security forces, who in turn allege that she was part of a militant insurgent group. The alleged culprits are duly being tried by the Indian Army, but the incident has taken on broader political overtones and sparked a debate in India over the act which gives the armed forces special powers in areas that the government designates as insurgency-affected.

• Terrorists from ULFA, a group which claims to be fighting for an independent Assam state, launched a violent campaign of bombings that killed several civilians in August.

• ULFA's message is getting fewer and fewer takers with public support for its line getting weaker with each attack. Indian security forces are unable to wipe-out the dregs of ULFA because of the less than enthusiastic attitude of the neighboring Bangladesh government, which continues to deny the presence of ULFA camps and infrastructure on its soil.

• It is now becoming increasingly clear that Musharraf's government has no intention at all to give up the jihadi option in Kashmir.

• In spite of all the attention surrounding the famous Islamabad meeting between Musharraf and Vajpayee, Pakistan has continued with its Kashmiri jihad policy. India's ruling Congress party too has begun to take a harder line on the Kashmir issue. In this context, it is unlikely that there will be any major breakthroughs when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets General Musharraf later this year.

NEPAL - A SHATTERED SHANGRI-LA

• Nepal is on the verge of being the next failed state in South Asia. King Gyanendra's ascent to the throne was controversial, his son and heir-apparent is widely reviled, and his political gambits are becoming increasingly unpopular. Nepal's political parties are unable to provide leadership and are caught up in vicious fraternal rivalry, giving Maoist guerillas plenty of political space.

• The Maoists demonstrated their strength when their blockade of Kathmandu caused considerable fear and consternation (and caused food prices to shoot up) in the country. The Maoists recently have also started to copy the insurgents in Iraq with kidnapping and intimidation tactics as well as a concerted effort to continue damaging the small nations economy.

• Nepal's government publicly refused help from India, it has been reported that India's strong posture was among the factors that caused the rebels to end the blockade.

• Nepal's Maoists find sanctuary in India's lawless Bihar state that borders Nepal, and find support among Communist guerillas (called Naxalites) in India. For the time-being the stalemate continues. Nepal's economy meanwhile has been severely damaged with both tourist arrivals dropping and business activities affected due to the Maoist threat.