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September 29, 2004Sandee on the Sudanese Security Threatby Dan Darling at September 29, 2004 1:00 AM
One of the criticisms that's being thrown about (rather unfairly in my mind, as I hope you'll see) on the issue of Sudan and their ongoing It's a valid enough question, but one of the things that I think is so problematic about how Sudan is being framed to the American public is that it's being viewed almost entirely through the prism of a humanitarian crisis, a la Rwanda, and not as an issue of US national security. While the humanitarian situation in Sudan almost certainly warrants international attention and assistance, it would be a mistake not to look at the nature of the threat emanating from Khartoum towards both the US and its allies. During my last day at AEI on August 6, I watched a conference on Sudan that I had played some small role in researching several weeks ahead of time. Most of what you're about to read about Sudan and the security threat emanating from it comes directly from Ronald Sandee, a senior counterterrorism expert at the Dutch Ministry of Defense. So if you don't believe people like Michael Rubin or Bill Kristol and Vance Serchuk on the issue of Sudan, perhaps you'll believe him, as most of what you're going to read below in italics are his remarks, with some of my own editing, notes, links, and commentary as well. From the official transcript of the event:
An alliance, one might add, that endures to this day. And according to numerous documentary evidence as well as other testimony that has surfaced over the last several years, it was Turabi who brokered the non-aggression pact between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. If you want to know who helped to shift bin Laden away from the dogmatic towards the pragmatic approach to terrorism, you need look no further than Turabi.
The Mauritanian contingent, I should note, was involved in a failed coup attempt with the Mauritanian Baathists in June 2003 against the nation's moderately pro-Western despot.
I recognize that there's a lot of information here to be taken into account here, but I think that it is worth noting so that the next time you hear about Sudan in the news the assumption isn't made that they're merely some distant and tragic situation. The fact that they're simply preoccupied with killing their own people at this point is also immaterial - Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was doing that in Afghanistan all through the early 1990s, but today he's leading one three major forces opposed to the US in Afghanistan along with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. So while the US is currently preoccupied with more immediate threats like the situation in Iraq or the ongoing threat posed by Iran, it's important not to lose sight of ongoing terrorist hubs like Sudan, which should be an issue entirely apart from Khartoum's brutal conduct in Darfur. In conclusion, Sandee stated the following and I think it pretty well sums up my own views on the subject:
Indeed. And sooner or later, Sudan and its brutal government are going to have to learn that if you play with fire, you will get burned. And for those of you who are multilateral enthusiasts out there, I believe that intervention in Sudan or at least in Darfur has wide support across the Atlantic on humanitarian grounds, even in la belle France. There is also strong bipartisan support for stronger US action against Sudan in Congress, the only question is whether or not whoever wins come November is willing to act on that support. Oh yes, and the clock is ticking.
Comments
#1 from Brian H at 12:36 am on Sep 29, 2004
Could it have anything to do with all the General Assembly votes the tinpot Arab and African dictatorships can swing? Naahhhh . . . . Dan, thanx! That was beautifully detailed, like all your work. I sincerely hope that the State Department has stopped considering Islam as a religion. It is much more, a superset of what we consider religion. Brian H: I don't understand your comment. Are you talking about the UN, that corrupt sack of greed and envy?
#3 from JC at 5:48 am on Sep 29, 2004
Dan, A lot of information. I agree that we should look to do something in Sudan. 6-10K a week dead!! It's unconscionable. An observation, and then a couple of questions. First, the observation - for such a prodigious amount of information, there is a noticeable lack of information regarding the other factors within the country - such as the two fighting factions at the moment, and the killing (obliteration? genocide?) of their own people. For a historical perspective (and this may have been covered elsewhere) what are the economic factors in the country? Who controls the oil (is this a future possibility for Sudan? Current?) - and who works from the Western world with Sudan, regarding resource development? Second - say that your "diagnosis" is correct, even including a lot of the unmentioned political and economic factors in the country. The "remedy" or "cure" that you are alluding to - "...going to have to learn that if you play with fire, you will get burned". Even with say, cancer, there is an acknowledgement of the side effects of chemotherapy. The doctor lets you know, "as our best guess, we have to do chemotherapy, but these will be the side-effects - there is a 30% chance of remission", etc. The "chemotherapy" you are alluding to, needs to have a FRANK and HONEST and, and basically as true as possible, detailing of the side effects. This is what frustrates and annoys people like me who are left-leaning, is a papering over of possible "side-effects" in this administration - it seems irresponsible. I hope that made sense... JC: All very good questions, I'll try and answer them as best I can. bq.First, the observation - for such a prodigious amount of information, there is a noticeable lack of information regarding the other factors within the country - such as the two fighting factions at the moment, and the killing (obliteration? genocide?) of their own people. Indeed and that was to a great extent deliberate because this kind of information has received wide circulation with respect to other posts, including some on this site, on the issue of Darfur. The intent here was not to restate what had already been said but rather to give those who were already at least peripherally aware of the situation a fresh perspective that they might not have otherwise seen elsewhere. And while this is a slight quibble, I would note that there are 3 factions involved in Darfur: the Sudanese government and their Janjaweed proxies, the Justice and Equality Movement, and the Sudanese Liberation Army. bq.For a historical perspective (and this may have been covered elsewhere) what are the economic factors in the country? Who controls the oil (is this a future possibility for Sudan? Current?) - and who works from the Western world with Sudan, regarding resource development? It's in Africa, so you can probably guess how the economy is run. There's oil in the Christian/animist south, which is one of the reasons why the northern Muslims won't let them secede. China and France both have sizeable oil interests in Sudan and Russia has arms deals with the government, which was actually moderately pro-Western prior to the 1989 coup that put Bashir and Turabi in power. bq.Second - say that your "diagnosis" is correct, even including a lot of the unmentioned political and economic factors in the country. Right ... bq.The "remedy" or "cure" that you are alluding to - "...going to have to learn that if you play with fire, you will get burned".
Well, if the Sudanese are going to continue to sponsor terrorism, specifically al-Qaeda and its satellites, this cannot be allowed in the interests of both regional and US national security. Period. Now we don't necessarily have to resort to military action against them, though placing Western and African troops in Darfur so that if Bashir's pet Janjaweed want to continue their genocide there they have to do so going up against more than just defenseless villagers would do wonders for the humanitarian situation there. There are a number of options on the table here, but there appears to the absolute least to be a bipartisan consensus that we at least do something there. And as long as we're discussing how to deal with the humanitarian situation with respect to Sudan, we also need to consider the regional and international security threat posed by the regime, which was one of the purposes of this blog post. Not sure if I answered your question or not on that one ... Destroying the Janjaweed wouldn't be all that difficult. African peacekeeping troops guarding camps and villages, and an airborne brigade (with SF) to hunt down and destroy the militia. Open ground, few cities, no combat training, vulnerable arms supplies (from the govt). There are only ~25,000 Janjaweed. A friend formerly of SF said he could do it with a good company :-) Yah, and Romeo D'allaire said the rwandan genocidaires could have been stopped with five thousand troops. Ain't gonna happen. Which is crazy, because it wouldn't even have to be official. I bet Executive Outcomes or a similar organisation could provide several hundred former soldiers still in fighting condition.
#8 from Lynn Rose at 7:04 pm on Jun 08, 2008
I need to speak with Dan Darling - can you email me at laflove@aol.com??? I'm to be going over to Sudan to give hands-on help to the Eritrean Refugees Could you please contact me so that I may get a bigger picture of understanding. Thank you
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