Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.
This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War with the 3rd Armor Division, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former soviet satellites.
TOP TOPICS
- Shakhmati! The geopolitical chess game turns against Russia as they are forced to choose between being excluded from the WTO and signing the Kyoto agreement.
- No sooner than an Ingush provincial leader has declared 'no ethnic backlash' from the Beslan attack, North Ossetians vow revenge when the 40 day mourning period is over. One Beslan resident states, "There will be violence. It won’t be noisy. It will be quiet - one person at a time."
- The "right" to conduct pre-emptive attacks has become part of the Russian anti-terror doctrine recently. However, many believe it is less about anti-terror operations and more about re-invigorating the Russian effort to maintain control over the Caucasus. Russian policy toward Chechnya especially, has been more political in the past couple of years, but the anti-terror initiative of preemption might tip policy back toward a more overt military prosecution of securing Chechnya. The other side of the coin is a Russia finally awakening to the global threat posed by pan-islamic nationalism. Which is the truth is only known in the Kremlin - for now.
Other Topics Today Include: arms sales and trade surplus; state run oil profits as YUKOS dies; inflation worries; political opposition uniting against Putin; first woman governor assesses first year; military draft excludes Chechens; Alkhanov inaugurated in secret location; Russia-Iran nuke fuel deal; Putin heads to China as two countries celebrate relations and joint ventures; secret uranium mission a success; introducing the Vodnik
*Russia's Economy
*Internal Politics
*Chechnya
*International Relations & Security
*Paging Mr. Bond...
- Russia sold USD 5b in arms in 2003 - with purchasers in 60 countries. This may be a contributing factor to why Russia is the only country in the CIS to have a trade surplus with other CIS countries.
- Shell Oil is investing big in Russia. The difference in this deal is that Shell Oil will be managing the operation of a Gazprom major stake in the Sakhalin-2 fields - ending an era of foreign controlled Russian oil operations. Further, Gazprom and the state-controlled Rosneft are suposed to merge by years end. Rosneft controls Sakhalin-1. All this, as the Russian government slowly strangles private oil giant YUKOS to death.
- Officials are worried about the Kremlin investing the Stabilization Fund in longer term projects, while inflation rises in Russia.
- Several opposition leaders are uniting in an effort to curb what many consider to be a dangerous consolidation of power by President Vladimir Putin. One of the most controversial proposals by Putin is a call for legislation, which would have all governors appointed by the Kremlin, rather than elected.
- Russia's first woman Governor, Valentina Matviyenko, assesses her first year in the top seat of St. Petersburg.
- Russia's military draft will exclude Chechens this fall, overturning a previous decision by the Army's General Staff Draft Directorate. Given the spartan conditions of Russian military service, this decision is not likely to break many hearts, but may require more mobilizations of Russian units to the Chechen autonomous military districts.
- Tanks, BMPs and patrols of soldiers secured the capitol city of Grozny as Alu Alkhanov, Chechnya's new president, was inaugurated - but where and when the inauguration was to happen was not known until only moments before the event. This is nothing new to a president who survived four assassination attempts as a candidate. Alkhanov is the latest pro-Moscow Chechen leader to be elected after the May 9 assassination of pro-Moscow President Akhmad Kadyrov.
International Relations & Security
- Iran and Russia may be close to a deal whereby Russia will supply nuclear fuel to the Bushehr power plant and collect the spent rods. This is the same deal Iran rejected, when discussed by US Presidential Candidate John Kerry.
- Russian President Putin is heading to China to commemorate 55 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries - they share over 1400 miles of border. I imagine the leaders will also be discussing the successes they have shared in aerospace initiatives and the recently expanded trade agreements. A strong Russia-China economic alliance could place both countries in strong positions globally, which is an obsession for Putin.
- A secret mission to recover highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Uzbekistan back to Russia was a success. The mission was a coordinated efforts involving experts from the US, Russia and Uzbekistan. This is the fifth recovery of Russian HEU from former Soviet satellites in the past year.
- Introducing the GAZ 39371 Vodnik Russia's amphibian answer to the HMMWV. A Vodnik is a water spirit from Russian folklore, which comes to life from the water or lures children into the water to drown them.
Naw, the spirit is "Vodyanoy" (adjective) :-). "Vodnik" (noun) doesn't mean anything, it's a made up word vaguely suggestive of something water-related. Submariners are called "podvodniki" (sub-vodniks, sorta; but there's no word "vodnik" -- as far as I know, at least.) A cute little car! Oh, also, what's "field units of KGB"? I dont' think there are such things... I may be wrong here though.
Warum,
I looked it up. You are correct. Vodnik is described as a slavic, rather than Russian term for Spirit. Russian is as you said it was. Good call!
"field units of KGB" was probably something you read in a link somewhere. I remember there were KGB folks in an army type uniform with special piping that often hung out with the GAI and helped extort money from foreign drivers. After a little poking around I found something I should have remembered (and there is a CW4 rolling in his grave I bet) from training. In the 1970s and forward, there were some special KGB units formed for things like counter-terrorism, Chechnya special operations, plus there was a special ops KGB group that were charged with assassinating enemy leadership, etc.
Thanks for posting and for correcting my Russian. :)
" hung out with the GAI and helped extort money from foreign drivers."
:-))) Yeah, I can believe that... About KGB field troops, yes, it was mentioned on one of the sites there, you're right.
I think you're wrong about Russia losing by choosing Kyoto to get in the WTO. As I noted elsewhere, Russia will get in to the WTO, make a bundle selling CO2 credits and then escape when Kyoto threatens to cripple the EU economy.
AOG,
I don't think they are losing, necessarily. They absolutely will benefit from the WTO. However, Russia has no emissions controls to speak of. In some of the more industrial towns, on a cold and drizzly day, you can cut the air with your hand and watch the polutants separate. Kinda like watching the house dust float around in that one shaft of light coming into the window as a kid - except not nostalgic. :)
Anyway! Putin is working overtime to put Russia on the map in an economic sense, since I think he realizes they cannot possibly compete with the US militarily. If you don't have the big army, you have to have cash or you are a little fish in the big pond. Putin continues to conduct business with Georgia. Opening things up in Iran. More in China and consolidating oil power by merging state run oil and killing YUKOS.
I doubt Russia has any intentions of squelching emissions, but they also think the Kyoto agreement is garbage and are taking a "gotta play the game" approach.
Ah, the emissions controls. This has been a problem for the last few years. The proposal of Euro 2 (a european emissions control standard) has been in the air for a few years now. First it was turned down because of argument that the Russian car industry would be hurt with such high standards. A few years later, in summer of '04 it was turned down again and suspended for a year because of argument that now the oil industry couldn't handle making better fuel. With that said - I think there are some standards: Euro 0 or maybe Euro 1 while Europe is thinking of entering the Euro 4... However in the last years the auto industries have been more careful about their engines. Most of new cars have switched to Euro 2 on their own, but the problem here is that the old production cars are still abailable with horrible 1960's carburator engines.
In the economic sense - the country's total profit has increased 4 times in '04 compared to '99 and Russian has paid off most of their foreign debt (only 44 billion $ left to some French club), however inflation is at an all time high and as much as 40% of people consider themselves poor.
I don't agree with Joel about the army - yes it has suffered grately from the fall of USSR but it's still one of the best armies in the world. Even though it doesn't have all the new Russian developments - this would change in case of a war with US. Look at WWII - in '30s USSR was not a military nation. After WWII - it was the nation with the best tanks and planes. My point is - if a war were to break out between these two nations, Russia would have a very big chanse of winning. If we are talking about a war on the scale of WWI or WWII, the country could stop worriing about other things and consentrate on military.
About the bussiness with Georgia - ever since the Pro US/NATO Saakashvili was elected the ties between 2 countries deteriorated and Georgia can not be considered a Russian ally.
Unfotrunatly, the same is happening in Ukraine right now. The damn "Orange Revolution" and "American" election of Uschenko will put a big dent in relations with Russia. Being Ukrainian I just hope he doesn't decide to join EU or NATO because then both countries will be scruded big time.
I think the few Russian allies right now are Belorus, Ukraine (but for how long?), and in a way China. Russia and China have had a lot of advancements in the way of relations. In '04-'05 they settled most of the border issues - first in 50 years and plan to have the first ever joined military training this year. However, China can't be considered a "true" ally - it keeps an open mind on things, staying neutral on as many issues as possible - a very clever thing to do.