Zdravstvuite Russia! 2004-12-15

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War with the 3rd Armor Division, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former soviet satellites.

TOP TOPICS

• Russia may now be in the midst of a new kind of cold war, as her heavy-handed influence is challenged by presidential elections being won by opposition candidates in Abkhazia, Belarus, and the Ukraine. The fact that Putin and fellow derzhavniki are incapable of pressing their colelctive agenda with any tact makes the pressure exerted on these other nations quite obvious. There are examples, which indicate Russia is prepetuating regional conflicts, while maintaining a death grip on an attempt to hold some semblance of post-Soviet empire together.

• Russia is part of the "peacekeeping" apparatus in Georgian breakaway South Ossetia. In fact, Russian officials have denied any obligations to remove troops from Georgia or Moldava, as noted in the OSCE's year end conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. In Kazakhstan, opposition leaders express concern over possible Russian meddling in their upcoming Presidential elections - as they realize the power which comes from being quite oil rich. Even in Armenia, it appears Russian influence is not flagged - with political jokes along the lines of the Armenian President needing to watch Russian state television to find out which Ukrainian presidential candidate to congratulate.

• Vladimir Vladimiri'tch Putin will finish his second, and final, presidential term in 2008. In a government, where 60% of high offices are held by former "Kah Geh Beastniks" (securities services personnel), will Putin maneuver a mandate to extend his term? Will there be a peaceful, democratic transfer of power? Will a "special powers" act be invoked due to some national emergency? Has he learned what to do or what not to do in Ukraine and Belarus?

Other Topics Today Include: Economic boom or bane?; steps needed to reduce inflation; middle class emerging; incorporating autonomous states; direct election of governors eliminated; norilsk nickle cashing in; St. Pete gets a China Town; Chechen War 10 years later; Sino-Russia military exercises; Russia proliferates nuke missiles; Ex-FSB agent gets 10 years; A short history of Russia

• Russia's Economy
• Internal Politics
• Chechnya
• International Relations & Security
• Paging Mr. Bond...

Russia's Economy

• The economy is due to have grown at approximately 7% for 2004. However, Putin wants to double the GDP by 2012. Analysts see this as unlikely, even if oil exports remain at the same or higher levels. The Economy Ministry has laid out three likely scenarios for future development and growth. However, there are some who say the government is creating a political climate which will slow economic growth. Also a concern is the possible necessity of stopping oil exportation all-together by 2010 because of poor internal energy efficiency.

• As the economy grows, so do concerns of inflation. The Economic Development and Trade Ministry has urged the governement to take steps to reduce inflation to 5% by 2007.

• Russia economists note that a "middle class" is emerging and should be a majority by 2010.

Internal Politics

• Russian lawmakers want to incorporate small autonomous nations, which became so during the fall of the Soviet Union, back into Russia. South Ossetia and Trans-Dneister are prime examples of regions which have Slavic majorities and wish to break away from their current rulers and "rejoin" Russia. Some in those areas, however, have other ideas.

• Putin has signed into law a bill, which eliminates the direct election of governors. Under Russian law, the governor candidate must be put before the regional legislatures for "confirmation". However, if the confirmation fails twice, Putin has the power to dissolve the regional legislature and appoit his own acting governor. Critics maintain this undermines the definition of Russia as a "federation", which is mandated in the constitution. It is unlikely, however, that this law will be challenged in the Russian Supreme Court any time soon.

• Owners of Norilsk Nickle seem to believe they may be next on the Russian government's "Back-Tax Takeover" list, which brings in great amounts of cash for mother Russia, while destroying Putin's competition. Norilsk Nickle owners are cashing (caching?) out.

• St. Petersburg is planning to develop a city-within-a-city on 150 hectares of vacant land between the Peterhoff highway and the Gulf of Findland. What does it all mean? China Town!

Chechnya

• Ten years ago, Russian armored columns entered the Chechen capitol of Grozny after Chechen leaders, specificly Chechen President Djokhar Dudaev, refused to rescind a declaration of full independence from Moscow. The bid for independence has become something else entirely - we are now witnessing the Second Chechen War - but Russians and Chechens are still fighting and dying today. Not a happy anniversary.

International Relations & Security

• Sino-Russian relations have taken an interesting turn with the first ever joint military exercises between the two countries announced for early next year. As Russia and China share a border, the exercise may be a confidence vote of stability more than anything else, yet there must be some level of concern in western capitols by this development.

Paging Mr. Bond...

• Russia has increased their nuclear missile capacity and Putin says that Russia soon will have ICBMs capable of evading anti-missile defenses in flight. "No other country in the world has such weapons systems. It means that Russia has been and will remain one of the biggest nuclear-missile powers in the world. Some people may like it and some may not, but everyone will have to reckon with it," Putin stated. Russian news agencies underscore Russia will only proliferate to the level of "containment of aggression" against Russia and her allies - whatever that means. Silos in Russia are now being armed with Topol-M SS-27s as well as adding a new regiment to the Strategic Missile Forces.

• A former FSB Lt Colonel was sentenced to ten years in prison for spying for Estonia.

• A (very) Short History of Russia