Zdravstvuite Russia! 2005-02-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former Soviet satellites.

TOP TOPICS

• As the Ukraine inaugurated its new President, in a highly contested event which showed the best of democracy and the worst of those who try to subvert it, Neeka's Backlog has a play by play of the event and Orange Ukraine has some photos. Yuschenko lost no time ensuring the Kremlin understood where things stood. While calling Russia "our eternal partner", he appointed the Kremlin despised Yulia Tymoshenko to be Ukraine's interim Prime Minister.

• Investigations into the Beslan attack are bringing up more disturbing developments. There are allegations, and so far two arrests, of participants and abettors of the attack who are in the employ of Russian Federal services. One official is quoted as saying, "Two abettors have already been detained, and now I think there will be another two," he said, adding that there are people with shoulder straps among them including at the rank that is higher than major. According to him, "these people are still staying at their working places."

• Andrei Zorin provides an interesting synopsis regarding the re-introduction of the Soviet era national anthem and the changing of a Soviet era holiday. The final analysis seems to be - the State reasserting itself.

• After the elections in the Ukraine were - finally - final, Russian FM Lavrov claimed "we never said we would not work with a Yushchenko government". The events of Supreme Rada (parliament) Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn's, recent visit to Moscow underscores Lavrov's claim - sort of.

Other Topics Today Include: investors holding off in Russia, 2004 domestic growth, pay raise for troops, shrinking population, final governor elections, end to soviet era benefits, Beslan parents block highway, sappers check roads, Russia-Chechnya power sharing, Nalchik gun battle, Finns learn how to bribe, US asylum to Alyona Morozava, anxiety over Dr. Rice hawkish stance, Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, secret cities

• Russia's Economy
• Internal Politics
• Chechnya
• International Relations & Security
• Paging Mr. Bond...

Russia's Economy

• Reports indicate that US investors, despite US government compliments of Russian business climate, are in no rush to invest in Russia. It seems Russian partners, with help from the Russian government express remorse with the deals they negotiate with US firms in Russia - saying the firms are not paying market value - well after the deals are made. There are several instances of this type of "sellers remorse" occurring with US-Russian ventures.

• Since the near collapse of the Russian economy 7 years ago and the subsequent bailout, Russia has aggressively pursued "any means necessary" to recover and even compete with Western nations. Economists have stated Russia's domestic growth for 2004 was 6.9%. This is down from 7.3% in 2003. Inflation going forward is forecast at somewhere between 9% and 15% and growth is unforecast as of yet. Indication are that it will not be as high as 2004. Russia, apparently, still relies too heavily upon oil revenues, despite attempts to diversify.

Internal Politics

• President Putin has asked lawmakers to implement a 20% pay raise for military personnel. His reason for the increase is to compensate for the higher than normal public transportation costs for some of those serving. If a 20% raise will only cover high public transportation costs, how little do they make? From the little I have been able to gather, an NCO makes about US $75 per month - maybe a little more.

• Like several other nations today, Russia is experiencing a shrinking population. This past year, the population was reduced to 143 million - a reduction of 716 thousand.

• Ahead of Putin's new policy to directly select governors, Russia's last gubernatorial elections were held in Nenets Okrug Despite the enormous ramifications of this event, coverage was almost nonexistent. What is most interesting is the Kremlin's candidate lost by a wide margin and has had a stunning effect on United Russia Party strategists. It is expected that the spring elections will strengthen the Kremlin's voice in the legislature. The legislature will then appoint the governors and the governors will be, it is rumored, responsible for implementing Putin's unpopular reforms - like the benefits fiasco - taking the focus away from Putin himself.

• The Kremlin implemented changes, which eliminate Soviet era benefits - reduced pharmacy costs, free public transportation, etc. - and replace them with cash. This sparked a wave of outrage among benefits recipients and saw protests spontaneously occurring all over Russia. The recipients state the cash does not come close to the value of their current benefits and the Kremlin states the bureaucracy of the old system is an economic drain on the country. What most see as significant is unprecedented criticism of the Kremlin by Russians. Opposition legislators in the State Duma were able to secure the 90 signatures needed to put a no-confidence vote against the government in early February.

Chechnya

• The blockade of the Kavkaz federal highway by parents of Beslan victims was lifted, but will probably be reinstituted. The protesters demand accountability by certain Russian officials - claiming no one resigned after the cowardly attack last September. Talks with Kremlin envoys may stall the next bout of protests, but are not expected to produce any results acceptable to the parents. CBS has a new video of the hostage takers working with a negotiator

• ITAR-TASS reports that Russian sappers check more than 1000 Km of roads daily in Chechnya - looking for explosive devices. Apparently, IEDs are not a cornered market in Iraq.

• A "power sharing" agreement between Russia and Chechnya is ready after two years of deliberations and political roadblocks. This is a Putin advised plan which is meant to be a step toward "normalizing" relations between the two countries. I guess the question is: Normal for whom? With Russian troops on the ground and Russian backed government in office, it seems the power sharing agreement is little more than a formality.

• Hundreds of Russian officers stormed an apartment building in Nalchik in the Kabardino-Balkariya province, killing at least seven islamist militants said to be part of the terrorist forces making attacks against Russian soldiers in Chechnya.

International Relations & Security

• The Finnish-Russian Chamber of Commerce has published a booklet advising Finns of the proper bribery etiquette in Russia.

• Another indicator that all might not be as it appears between the US and Russia could be the US granting political asylum to Alyona Morozava. Ms. Morozava lost her grandmother and boyfriend in a 1999 Moscow apartment bombing. Her asylum was granted due to fear that she would be persecuted in Russia after her attorney stated he was going to present evidence that the bombings were carried out by Russian Security Services. Crackpot? Maybe, except that her attorney is Mikhail Trepashkin. He is a former Russia Security Services Lt. Colonel, who was sentenced by a Russian court in May to four years in prison for illegal possession of a firearm - a firearm he says was planted on him.

• Kremlinologists have expressed some anxiety over Dr. Rice's "Hawkish stance" with regards to US policy in traditionally Russian spheres of influence.

• Estonia 's President Arnold Ruutel and Russian President Putin met recently and supposedly discussed Russia's repudiation of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. This is significant in Eastern Europe because of the Secret Protocol within the pact, only admitted to by Russia in 1989. This was a promise of Germany giving the Soviet Union all of the Baltic States and part of Poland in return for not attacking Germany. While Putin did not actually state Russia would repudiate the pact, Ruutel seemed to hold hope that Putin would make good on the 1989 Supreme Soviet condemnation of the pact. Yet, the Kremlin stated the re-evaluation would only be from an historic standpoint - not a legal one.

Paging Mr. Bond...

• During the Soviet era, town-forming military enterprises were in high fashion. If one worked at a munitions plant, for example, the best way to keep the production a secret was to make it unnecessary for anyone to leave the area. If you consider that in the Soviet Union all travel had to be approved by aparatchiks, it was easy to make travel to the secret city impossible as well. Global Security has some interesting information and a list of some of Russia's Secret Cities.