Kalashnikovs are getting dearer

Kalashnikovs are getting dearer

Photo: Valerio Pandolfo

Darra Adam Khel, a small town in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, 'consists of one main street lined with shops, with some alleys and sidestreets containing workshops'. Almost all the shops and the workshops are involved in the business of small, and not-so-small, arms. Officially, you need a permit to get there. Officially, you will not be issued with one.

Well, the news from Darra is that Kalashnikov prices are going up.

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Estimating prospects for stability in Pakistan

Predictions, wags will say, are mostly wrong. Especially when they are about the future.

If that is so, the margin of error in predicting the course of events in Pakistan is near infinite. Predictions, though, have to be made. So here is something, composed in the American intelligence community’s national intelligence estimate (NIE) format. Lazy analysts facing deadlines will find it useful.

Get it from here

(Cross posted from The Acorn)

No colours for the revolution in Pakistan

America is ignoring the popular movement against Musharraf to its own disadvantage

PostGlobal's Amar Bakshi is going around the world, lugging a laptop and a camcorder, to get a sense of how people in different countries view America. If he ever makes it to Pakistan, he's likely to find a country where anti-Americanism is rife. Pakistanis have genuine reasons to hold a negative opinion of American foreign policy---though not necessarily for the reasons Americans may be inclined to believe. Right now, they have little reason to nurse good feelings towards America, given Washington's determined refusal to demonstrate the smallest amount of sympathy for democracy and freedom in the ongoing confrontation between the people and the dictator.

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The Battle of Karachi

It's the anniversary of the 1857 uprising after all

Altaf Hussain's Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party rules the streets of Karachi. It also runs the provincial government of Sindh province for Gen Musharraf. Its hold over Karachi is such that it does not really need to throw in its lot with Gen Musharraf as he fights his own citizens. That it has done so---and in such a brazen manner---suggests that it has hopes or promises of being part of the ruling establishment beyond the scheduled elections later this year.

For the time being though, it appears that it has badly miscalculated. Last week it forced cable operators off the air in order to prevent them from broadcasting live scenes of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry's rally in Lahore. Yesterday, it ensured that key roads and thoroughfares of Karachi were blocked, using trucks and vehicles to prevent the flow of traffic. Unknown gunmen shot at the residence of a leading lawyer representing the Chief Justice in his legal battle against the Musharraf regime. The official authorities, who too take orders from the MQM, did what they could to ensure that pro-Chief Justice activists and ordinary people were intimidated, while the MQM went about holding its own rally.

And today, MQM marksmen shot at the crowds.

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Walking away from a very good deal

The Acorn has been a supporter of the India-US nuclear deal as concluded between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President George Bush in March 2006. It has argued that for India, the benefits of the deal are worth making some difficult concessions---separating civilian nuclear facilities from military ones, and accepting constraints on the amount of fissile material India needs to produce nuclear weapons. The agreement allows India to retain a dynamic credible nuclear deterrent---although the contours of the deterrence need to change---while ending its costly isolation from the international nuclear power industry. The deal, moreover, is also part of a strategic transformation of relations with the United States mandated by convergence of interests in the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.

The Hyde Act, passed by the US Congress last year, introduced a qualitative change in the letter and spirit of the agreement that negotiators worked so hard to achieve. It has raised several contentious issues, but the most significant one involves linking America's keeping its end of the deal (to supply nuclear technology and fuel for India's civilian nuclear power industry) to India's non-testing of nuclear weapons.

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The judge and the jackboot

Nothing comes in the way of Musharraf's political survival. Not least the rule of law.

The actual story is simple. A military dictator wanted to get rid of a judge who began to take his duties a little too seriously. But this story is set in Gen Musharraf's Pakistan, so a whole lot of farce masquerading as constitutional propriety is in order. The manner in which Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, Chief Justice of Pakistan until last Friday, was rendered "non-functional" has thrown the Pakistani legal fraternity, political establishment and news media into a frenzy of activity. The chances are, all this will be to little effect.

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Pakistan wants the US out of Afghanistan

On the very day a 'senior administration official' from the Bush administration had lunch with Gen Musharraf, by sheer coincidence, the Pakistanis arrested a senior administration official from the Taliban.

Such antics apart, Pakistan would like nothing better to get the US off its back in Afghanistan. Here's a post that Winds readers must read on this subject.

China's ASAT test may settle a debate in India

Weapons in the final frontier

There are three ways of looking at it: China tested a new way to clean up orbital slots occupied by defunct satellites; it now has a way to take out space-based assets belonging to other countries; or, that it just created a whole lot of hazardous orbital junk up there. But let there be no mistake---it has also started this century's arms race. Star wars, ladies and gentlemen, has received a new lease of life.

What China did is not tremendously difficult to do. Both the United States and the Soviet Union have tested anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, but the post-cold war world has held back from testing space-related weapons. That unspoken taboo is now broken.

Where is India in all this? At least three air chiefs have publicly talked about the establishment of an Aerospace Command. Although the government has not approved its formation, the Indian air force has started "work on conceptualising (space-based) weapons systems and its operational command system". And then there are accounts of DURGA or Directionally Unrestricted Ray-Gun Array, and KALI or Kinetic Attack Loitering Interceptor. Whether or not these projects exist outside the anyone's imagination is not known. But the folks at DRDO have a way with acronyms. (Actually, these weapons may belong to the family of advanced weapons known to professionals as Vertically Aligned Polar Omnidirectional Uniform Radioactive Weapon And Re-entry Equipment.)

For now, the United States has reacted with reproach at the Chinese for having defected first in this prisoner's dilemma game. But the Chinese may have settled the domestic debate in the United States weapons programmes in space. They may have settled it in India too.

Related Links: Two posts on this at DefenseTech; Theresa Hitchens's report on developments in military space; on China Confidential

Indian Matinee

Pointing and thinking from out of the tank

India pulled off a surprise this week when it successfully tested a prototype anti-ballistic missile system.

States in India's neighbourhood are on the brink --- why so, and why India has become part of the scenery.

Deciphering China is tough (well, not for some). And we need a Chinese Mitrokhin.

Kashmiri separatists --- some who think ethnic cleansing can be explained away by youthful indiscretion, and some whose words are taken a little too seriously. Here's why the jihadis can't stop fighting. Reporting Pakistani duplicity in the war on terror is as dangerous as it was.

On the Sachar Committee's report --- less patronisation and more economic freedom will benefit Muslims (and, for that matter, everyone else)

Is the economy bubbling?

One China policy

President Hu Jintao of China came, saw, signed agreements and left for Islamabad (to sign more agreements). Unfinished and inconclusive, the public debate over India's relations with China relations that preceded his visit will soon die down. In this debate, many of those with any experience actually dealing China on political issues had advised caution. Many of those whose primary experience of China has been through trade and investment advocated closer ties. The oversimplified question on everyone's lips was a cliche: Is China a friend or foe?

That, though, is a wrong question to ask. The inherent anthropomorphism in the framing of this question confuses the issue, for relations between states are not like relations between people.

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Concerns over another break-up of Pakistan are overblown

Both Pakistani and foreign commentators have started drawing parallels between the Musharraf regime's killing of Nawab Bugti and the Yahya Khan regime's genocide in East Bengal in 1971. The latter led to the breakup of Pakistan and the emergence of Bangladesh as an independent nation. Bugti's killing, it is being argued, may now cause Balochistan to go the same way. On the face of it, the analogy sounds plausible. But look below the surface and there are several important differences that challenge this argument.

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Robi and Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-09-15

A quick round-up of events in and around the subcontinent, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn

• India: Desipundit captures two sides of the debate of whether or not two American bloggers were right in responding to India's assistance to the victims of Katrina with sarcasm. And The Acorn's recommendation on what India must do about Iran's nuclear programme.

• Bangladesh: Rezwan writes that terrorists hate Bangladesh's democracy, development and empowerment of women, achieved in part due to efforts by NGOs. In response, Wamy finds the conduct of some NGOs questionable.

• Pakistan: Gen Musharraf may have boasted on turning Pakistan around, but Onlooker at the Glasshouse has a very different reading. Raven at the Reality Cafe takes the General to task for making some distasteful remarkes about Pakistani rape victims.

• Sri Lanka: The government and the Tamil Tigers find a peace plan elusive -- but Sri Lankan bloggers have proposed one of their own. With elections round the corner, India.ca lays out the options before the voters.

• Nepal: Blogdai smells some changes in the political air in Nepal while the folks at United We Blog wonder if the Maoist ceasefire will lead to peace.

• Maldives: PINR observes growing signs of unrest in the archipelago

• Myanmar: Jeff Ooi reports that a Canadian trade union has prevailed upon Coca-Cola to stop procuring merchandise sourced from Myanmar. The chances that this will bring down the ruling junta is almost exactly zero.

Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-06-10

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

THE PEACE PROCESS - ASYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE BUILDING?

• Leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), a motley group of Kashmiri-separatists made their way to meet their makers (pun unintended) in Islamabad. But not before both Pakistan and the Hurriyat violated the terms of the understanding that made the bus service possible.

• Some Kashmiri separatists said things that made the Pakistani government cringe.

• Bilateral talks between India and Pakistan on the hydro-electric projects India is building in Kashmir were inconclusive.

• India's energetic minister for petroleum proceeded to reach an agreement with Pakistan on building a natural-gas pipeline that will deliver natural gas from Iran (and potentially Turkmenistan) to India. While the Indian government has taken the line that this is a pipeline of peace, this is not necessarily the best thing India could do to ensure its own security.

Other topics include: India - at 60% governance; Pakistan - the more they stay the same; Bangladesh - hanging on; Sri Lanka & Nepal - life in the times of (civil) war.

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Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-04-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

THE ETERNAL TRIANGLE (OR SQUARE?)

• Condoleezza Rice's first trip to South Asia successful, at least compared to Colin Powell's disastrous one last year. She managed to further the Bush administration’s agenda and improved relations with India and Pakistan simultaneously.

• In addition to offering India advanced military hardware - including PAC-2 anti-ballistic missiles, F-16s and F/A-18 fighter aircraft - the United States signaled its intention to upgrade its bilateral relationship to one that is more 'global in nature'. Despite India's public protests over the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, it is quite certain that the deal had India's tacit consent.

• The US has certainly made it clear that it plans to make India a regional superpower, which begs the question if there can be two? One of the ways the US plans to help do this is not only through the sale of weapons systems but through increased cooperation between the two countries militaries and especially in that region their navies.

Other Items Covered Include: More on Rice's talks; Peeling the Skin off the Pakistani Onion; Peeling the Skin off India-Pakistan Relations; India, Energy, and Security; India - a Million Matinees Now; Keeping a Eye on Khan; The FBI is a Trusted Brand in Bangladesh; A Million Matinees in the Subcontinent

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Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-02-22

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

NEPAL GOES DOWN - ADVANTAGE CHINA

• Nepal's founding myth comes with a sting in its tail --- an old curse condemns the Shah dynasty to ten generations. King Gyanendra, who seized executive power and imposed a state of emergency this month, is the tenth generation. Even if the monarchy comes through the current crisis intact and prevails over the Maoists and abolitionists, it may not survive to the next generation; not least due to the rank unpopularity of Crown Prince Paras Shah, tales of whose misdemeanor are legion.

• While the Maoist rebels seized the opportunity to attempt to form an alliance against the monarchy, Nepal's much-maligned politicians discharged themselves admirably by rebuffing the offer.

• Civil and political rights have been suspended, communication links severed and media censorship is in place. Mainstream newspapers have been publishing tongue-in-cheek commentaries about the political situation. There are very few bloggers reporting from Nepal; Blogdai's NepalNow, Wagle's United We Blog and Radio Free Nepal are among the active ones.

• International reaction has been on predictable lines --- India, Nepal's ally by treaty, reacted sharply to Gyanendra's move, calling off a scheduled South Asian Summit in Dhaka, and threatening to cut off military assistance to the King. The United States, Britain and a host of European countries recalled their ambassadors for consultation.

• China and Pakistan did not criticise the King, choosing instead to declare their policy of non-interference in Nepal's domestic affairs. But it is unlikely that King Gyanendra could have pulled off this move without blessings from China; significantly, the Dalai Lama's office in Nepal was closed down by the Nepalese government a few days before the emergency. Blogdai suspects that China has been in on this for some time.

• India has played key roles in Nepal's previous political transitions --- in 1950 it helped free King Tribhuvan and his family from the grip of hereditary prime ministers who had usurped de facto power by the twentieth century. Some constitutional reforms were introduced but executive powers remained vested in the King. Again in 1989 India intervened in support of a popular demand for democracy that resulted in the King's powers largely reduced. While King Gyanendra, like General Musharraf, has committed himself to a timeframe to introduce democracy, how India plays its cards will determine whether it will help finish the process towards Nepal's democratisation that it started half-a-century ago.

Other Issues Include: Bangladesh slows down - advantage who?; The Kashmir bus speeds up; Khan celebrates his first year in retirement; India - a million matinees now

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AfricaPundit's Regional Briefing: 2005-02-16

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Africa, courtesy of AfricaPundit.

TOP TOPICS

• Africa's longest-ruling head of state, Gnassingbe Eyadema, died earlier this month, reportedly of natural causes. Eyadema had been dictator of Togo for 38 years.

• A much-antincipated UN report on Darfur declared that the violence there did not constitute genocide, leaving the world body free not to act.

• New elections have been scheduled for October in Liberia approximately two years after thug-in-chief Charles Taylor fled into exile.

Other Topics Today Include: Much more on Sudan, Darfur, and the UN; Zimbabwe election preparations; Togo; Kenyan corruption; Slavery in Niger; UN in Congo; Hotel Rwanda.

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Simon's China and East Asia Highlights: 2005-2-15

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia, courtesy of Simon World.

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted twice a week (the latest edition is here and the full archive here). The following is a digest of highlights from the Asia by Blog series.

Wishing you all a happy and prosperous Year of the Rooster.

The round-up has four key areas of focus:

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong: Politics, Economy & lifestyle, History sport & culture, Information
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Asian Miscellany

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Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2005-02-09

Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2005-02-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPICS

• While Georgia's Rose Revolution spooked Central Asia's governments, Ukraine's Orange Revolution seems to have sent them into panic mode even though they probably don't have much to fear from their comparatively weak opposition parties. RFE/RL's Daniel Kimmage summarizes Ukraine's fallout in Central Asia.

• Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan just held elections that elicited little attention. There was little to talk about and making a stink about their unfairness seemed like an exercise in futility. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have parliamentary elections on the 27th. Kyrgyzstan was once considered Central Asia's island of democracy, something that those who have spent time there notice. If anywhere in Central Asia is to have a democratic revolution of its own, it is Kyrgyzstan, and there are small rumbles that trouble may be brewing for the Akayev government.

Other Topics Include: Flashes of Orange; Democracy & Election Watch; Central Asian Leaders Batten Down the Hatches; Interviews With Presidents & Opposition Leaders; Tashkent's Unreported Serial Killer; Uzbekistan's Behind-the-Scenes Power Struggle; Year of the Rukhnama; A Series of Unfortunate Events in Georgia; Russia Brandishes Sword, Cuts Off its Own Foot in the Near Abroad; Golf Kabul; Afghanistan's Scattered Air Force; Borat Goes to the Rodeo; and Much More.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2005-02-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• Colombia and Venezuela: Two hardheaded leaders butt heads, but in the end can they both just get along?

Other Topics Include: As Vicente Fox slides deeper into irrelevancy, will Mexico move to the left or return to the cruel embrace of the PRI?; Has Bolivia's President Carlos Mesa, in trying to please the population of Santa Cruz province, opened up the floodgates for other regions wanting more autonomy?; Gerard Latortue calls for elections in Haiti, but all available evidence shows that a year after Aristide, the situation has gone from bad to worse; Lula gets razzed at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre; Were you aware of the devastating floods in Guyana? Apparently the media have been ignoring it.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2005-02-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• Colombia and Venezuela: Two hardheaded leaders butt heads, but in the end can they both just get along?

Other Topics Include: As Vicente Fox slides deeper into irrelevancy, will Mexico move to the left or return to the cruel embrace of the PRI?; Has Bolivia's President Carlos Mesa, in trying to please the population of Santa Cruz province, opened up the floodgates for other regions wanting more autonomy?; Gerard Latortue calls for elections in Haiti, but all available evidence shows that a year after Aristide, the situation has gone from bad to worse; Lula gets razzed at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre; Were you aware of the devastating floods in Guyana? Apparently the media have been ignoring it.

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Inkgrrl's Roadmap Roundup: 2005-02-02

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Israel and its neighbours, courtesy of Inkgrrl.

NB: Monday's Winds of War has done a fabulous job of covering some of the big scaries in the region, so this briefing will concentrate on regional events of less immediately violent global import.

TOP TOPIC

• It’s been 60 years since the survivors of Auschwitz were liberated from hell on earth. Every year we are further away from that painfully bittersweet event is a celebration of mankind’s possibilities. There’s plenty of documentation and literature available to those who remain ignorant, or to those who think that Bosnia in our generation’s lifetime was an original idea; a good place to start is Yad Vashem.

Other Topics Today Include: Falashas Coming Home, Social Justice Aborning, Beautiful Irony, Palestinian Welfare, Pups For Peace, Contrarian Fundamentalists, Ancient Dialogues, Hezbollah’s Got No Excuse, Syrian-Flavored Peace, We Are The Lebanese World, Egypt Busy On The Peace Front, and Free Speech In Jordan.

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Zdravstvuite Russia! 2005-02-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former Soviet satellites.

TOP TOPICS

• As the Ukraine inaugurated its new President, in a highly contested event which showed the best of democracy and the worst of those who try to subvert it, Neeka's Backlog has a play by play of the event and Orange Ukraine has some photos. Yuschenko lost no time ensuring the Kremlin understood where things stood. While calling Russia "our eternal partner", he appointed the Kremlin despised Yulia Tymoshenko to be Ukraine's interim Prime Minister.

• Investigations into the Beslan attack are bringing up more disturbing developments. There are allegations, and so far two arrests, of participants and abettors of the attack who are in the employ of Russian Federal services. One official is quoted as saying, "Two abettors have already been detained, and now I think there will be another two," he said, adding that there are people with shoulder straps among them including at the rank that is higher than major. According to him, "these people are still staying at their working places."

• Andrei Zorin provides an interesting synopsis regarding the re-introduction of the Soviet era national anthem and the changing of a Soviet era holiday. The final analysis seems to be - the State reasserting itself.

• After the elections in the Ukraine were - finally - final, Russian FM Lavrov claimed "we never said we would not work with a Yushchenko government". The events of Supreme Rada (parliament) Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn's, recent visit to Moscow underscores Lavrov's claim - sort of.

Other Topics Today Include: investors holding off in Russia, 2004 domestic growth, pay raise for troops, shrinking population, final governor elections, end to soviet era benefits, Beslan parents block highway, sappers check roads, Russia-Chechnya power sharing, Nalchik gun battle, Finns learn how to bribe, US asylum to Alyona Morozava, anxiety over Dr. Rice hawkish stance, Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, secret cities

• Russia's Economy
• Internal Politics
• Chechnya
• International Relations & Security
• Paging Mr. Bond...

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Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-1-25

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

Special Note: Obviously the top story of the last two months has to be the tsunami and is a topic that deserves its own special attention and post. This month we will focus on other important events in the area.

BOILING BALOCHISTAN

• Thanks to a brazen attempt to hush up a gang-rape allegedly carried out by members of one of its units, the Pakistani military establishment is facing a serious crisis in its Balochistan province. Baloch rebels have escalated their armed struggle by launching a major attack on the natural gas plant at Sui, damaging vital equipment and pipelines, and disrupting power supply to much of the country. Karachi's stock market panicked. Musharraf's immediate reaction was to threaten tough military action, a repeat of the 1970s, but he has very little political support from any quarter.

• Global Guerillas also has noted the Balochistan pipeline attacks and tied it into their analysis to similar Oil infrastructure attacks in Iraq. Infrastructure attacks can be extremely effective creating cascading system failure and infrastructure meltdowns.

• Chapati Mystery (a deserving recipient of a Brass Crescent and the ABA Best Pakistani Blog ) provides a background to the Balochistan rebellion. Danial writes how the army remains part of the problem, while Gedroshian holds up the flag of the Baloch rebellion.

• Haroon Moghul, winner of three Brass Crescents, calls the unrest the umpteenth failure of Pakistan. While the dispute has caused additional problems for Musharraf and exposed the urgent need for representative democracy in Pakistan, it is unlikely that the rebellion will achieve a major success unless it receives external support. That again is unlikely.

Other Issues Include: Pakistan - Disputes everywhere; India - Pins, needles and a million matinees; Shifting Alliances; The Worlds Most Dangerous Man; Bangladesh gets lucky; Setting up governments is hard - Maldives elects a new parliament while Nepal does not.

read the rest! »

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings Schedule

For those of you who are interested, here are the Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings over the next couple of months. All changes etc. will be posted here, to make it easy for team members to check.

Hat tip to team member Robi Sen for the suggestion. Note that items in [square brackets] are briefings we're still recruiting for.

read the rest! »

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2005-01-11

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• A new year brings new questions, hopes and trends.I'll devote this briefing to a focus on different regions and what I think might happen in 2005. I'm starting out with US-Latin American relations.

Other Topics Include: Will Mexico's preparation for the 2006 elections show a resurgence of the PRI or will players take the stage; Will Central America remain the Bush administration's best friend in the hemisphere; Andean unrest: while Chávez consolidates his power and events in Colombia may look hopeful, Ecuador and Peru are unraveling; In the Southern Cone Argentina's bondholders want answers, but will they like what they hear? Will Chile elect its first woman president? Will Lula still keep the IMF happy?; In the Caribbean is Haiti completely hopeless and will the call for protectorate status grow louder? Can Leonel Fernandez turn the Dominican Republic around after a devastating bank scandal, crushing debt hurricanes and now malaria in Punta Cana? Castro hangs on - but for how long?

read the rest! »

Eyes on Korea: 2004-12-24

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today's Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.

Top Topics

• Prof. Andrei Lankov of NKzone contributed a two-part series in the Asia Times on changes in North Korea that really is an absolute MUST READ.
• Some of the biggest names in Korean studies released a set of policy recommendations on the North Korean nuclear issue that any person following the crisis needs to read, regardless of whether they agree with the suggestions or not.
• Has the U.S. "sexed up" intelligence about North Korea's uranium program?

Also on tap: South Korea cracking down on "planned defections," U.S. neocons launch offensive on Seoul, Japan gets ticked off mightily at North Korea, the times might SOON be a'changin in Pyongyang, and much, much more!

read the rest! »

Inkgrrl's Roadmap Roundup: 2004-12-17

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Israel and its neighbours, courtesy of Inkgrrl.

TOP TOPIC

• Opportunities for peace are always present despite ongoing conflict in the region. Since Colt’s wonderfully done Winds of War has scooped many of the key news events in and around Israel of late, this Roundup will focus more on possibility, conjecture, and acts of hope than on cold, hard body counts.

Topics Today Include: Good News In Spite Of It All, One Religious Challenge To Another, Music Soothes Not Only The Savage Breast, The Enemy Of My Enemy Is My Friend, Israeli-Egyptian Relations Warming Up, and Conspiracy Theory Much?

read the rest! »

Zdravstvuite Russia! 2004-12-15

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War with the 3rd Armor Division, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former soviet satellites.

TOP TOPICS

• Russia may now be in the midst of a new kind of cold war, as her heavy-handed influence is challenged by presidential elections being won by opposition candidates in Abkhazia, Belarus, and the Ukraine. The fact that Putin and fellow derzhavniki are incapable of pressing their colelctive agenda with any tact makes the pressure exerted on these other nations quite obvious. There are examples, which indicate Russia is prepetuating regional conflicts, while maintaining a death grip on an attempt to hold some semblance of post-Soviet empire together.

• Russia is part of the "peacekeeping" apparatus in Georgian breakaway South Ossetia. In fact, Russian officials have denied any obligations to remove troops from Georgia or Moldava, as noted in the OSCE's year end conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. In Kazakhstan, opposition leaders express concern over possible Russian meddling in their upcoming Presidential elections - as they realize the power which comes from being quite oil rich. Even in Armenia, it appears Russian influence is not flagged - with political jokes along the lines of the Armenian President needing to watch Russian state television to find out which Ukrainian presidential candidate to congratulate.

• Vladimir Vladimiri'tch Putin will finish his second, and final, presidential term in 2008. In a government, where 60% of high offices are held by former "Kah Geh Beastniks" (securities services personnel), will Putin maneuver a mandate to extend his term? Will there be a peaceful, democratic transfer of power? Will a "special powers" act be invoked due to some national emergency? Has he learned what to do or what not to do in Ukraine and Belarus?

Other Topics Today Include: Economic boom or bane?; steps needed to reduce inflation; middle class emerging; incorporating autonomous states; direct election of governors eliminated; norilsk nickle cashing in; St. Pete gets a China Town; Chechen War 10 years later; Sino-Russia military exercises; Russia proliferates nuke missiles; Ex-FSB agent gets 10 years; A short history of Russia

• Russia's Economy
• Internal Politics
• Chechnya
• International Relations & Security
• Paging Mr. Bond...

read the rest! »

Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-12-14

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPICS

• Uzbek authorities are in a tight spot over planned trade regulations. As mentioned last month, merchants in Kokand rioted when local authorities tried to implement the new rules, which would require bank accounts, cash registers, and much more. Diplomats warn that anger in the markets could spread. Both sides have good cases. On the one hand, merchants understand that many of them would lose their livelihood and have little to lose by taking to the streets. On the other hand, the new law may be designed to satisfy foreign lenders by eliminating the country's vast gray market.

• While the world's eyes were focused on the protests in Ukraine, Russia poured pressure on Georgia's separatist region of Abkhazia over its own election crisis. The opposition candidate, Sergei Bagapsh, won over 50% of the vote, allowing him to take office without a second round vote. Moscow demurred, and threatened harsh sanctions that would essentially shut down the Abkhaz economy unless a second round took place. Resolution was finally reached when Bagapsh agreed to a second round in which he will run as the head of a ticket with Raul Khajimba, the Russia-preferred candidate.

Other Topics Include: Responding to Russia in Eurasia; Learning From Uzbek Elections; Ukrainian Protests Electrify Regional Dissidents; A Survivor's Guide to Uzbek Prisons; Uzbek & Kyrgyz Elections on the Horizon; AIDS in Central Asia; A Year of Roses; Boosting Georgian Defense; Azerbaijan Moves West?; "Let Them Grow Poppies;" An Ancient Festival Returns to Afghanistan; The Dalai Lama Visits the Kalmyks; and, much more...

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-12-08

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• The situation in Haiti continues to unravel. MINUSTAH, the UN peacekeeping force led by Brazil is seriously understaffed with a little more than half of the 8,000 peacekeeper force in place. According to this report, the police and peacekeepers have ceded large sections of the largest cities to gangs led by different political factions; some pro-Arisitide, some anti-Aristide. Although the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the peacekeepers mandate until June 1 of next year, it certainly appears that it will need to be extended even further.

Other Topics Include: Repercussions of the car-bomb murder of a Venezuelan prosecutor; the latest in Colombia; Allegations of violent homophobia in Jamaica; A new drug war and vigalantism looming in Mexico?; Is Lula's plan for Brazil's economy working?; Castro releases dissidents he should never have imprisoned to begin with.

read the rest! »

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-12-08

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• The situation in Haiti continues to unravel. MINUSTAH, the UN peacekeeping force led by Brazil is seriously understaffed with a little more than half of the 8,000 peacekeeper force in place. According to this report, the police and peacekeepers have ceded large sections of the largest cities to gangs led by different political factions; some pro-Arisitide, some anti-Aristide. Although the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the peacekeepers mandate until June 1 of next year, it certainly appears that it will need to be extended even further.

Other Topics Include: Repercussions of the car-bomb murder of a Venezuelan prosecutor; the latest in Colombia; Allegations of violent homophobia in Jamaica; A new drug war and vigalantism looming in Mexico?; Is Lula's plan for Brazil's economy working?; Castro releases dissidents he should never have imprisoned to begin with.

read the rest! »

Iran In Focus: 2004-12-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Iran, courtesy of Gary Metz (DoctorZin) at Regime Change Iran.

TOP TOPIC

• Blogger Adventures of Chester looks at The Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program. A four-part series: first, second, third, and fourth.

• I have my own, fast recap of recent diplomatic maneuverings, andwhere Iran's A-bomb program stands now.

• US News & World Report exposes Iran's effort to see US efforts in Iraq fail. Dan Darling expands on the report in his 6-part series "The Elephant in the Room", as he looks at everything from Iran's strategy to its comparative threat and what the USA ought to do about it: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5 | Final Installment & Recommendations.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran's secret nuclear tunnel, heavy water reactor, military action against Iran, expose of Iran's efforts in Iraq, chatting with the Mullahs, Saudis and nukes, hardliners consolidate power, furor over National Geographic, execution for prostitutes, what Iranian's want, Iranian's view of America, China's oil deal, Iran's new friends, bloggers on a referendum in Iran, Kamezi update, Basij show of force in Tehran.

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AfricaPundit's Regional Briefing: 2004-12-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Africa, courtesy of AfricaPundit.

TOP TOPICS

• A woman vice president for Zimbabwe. Unfortunately this doesn't signal a change in government policies.

• In a big step forward for African culture, MTV has announced that it is launching a new channel in subsaharan Africa.

• Ambiguous Adventure pieces together a roundup of African media reaction to the US presidential election.

Other Topics Today Include: France's Ivoirian quagmire; Sudan mini-update; Nigerian news; AIDS in Africa; the Swahilisphere and other East African news.

read the rest! »

Simon's China and East Asia Highlights: 2004-11-30

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia, courtesy of Simon World.

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here and the full archive here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. The following is a digest of highlights from the past month's Asia by Blog series.

The round-up has four key areas of focus:

• China, Taiwan & Hong Kong: Politics, Economy & lifestyle, History sport & culture, Information
• Korea & Japan
• South-East Asia
• Asian Miscellany

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Robi & Nitin's Subcontinent Survey: 2004-11-26

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn

TOP TOPICS: THE KASHMIR POTBOILER

• Contending that solving Kashmir is easy, and can even be achieved in a day's sitting General Musharraf proposed a simple solution to the problem of Kashmir. This generally involves India ceding some (Muslim-majority) territory to Pakistan in return for peace. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took his time, but then ruled out any solution that would involve another Partition along religious lines. While India remains hopeful that globalisation and trade between India and Pakistan could help spur the peace process, Pakistan's Prime Minister reiterated that his country's position remains 'Kashmir before trade'.

• General Musharraf, who will keep his epaulettes after all, and is not accustomed to being rejected, promp